钮文新

NiuWenXin

　　“加工贸易不是贸易，而是一种特殊的生产方式”，这是我们一直以来的主张。因为，虽然加工贸易过程中表达出货品的进口和出口，但实际上，在订单的作用下，货权始终在购买者一方，而非加工者一方。就是说，进出口过程中，并未发生货权的变化。所以，我们一直主张“计算各国间贸易是否平衡”，应当剔除加工贸易形成的刚性顺差(加工费)。如果这样做，中国的一般贸易将是逆差，这将从根本上封杀人民币的升值空间，甚至显示人民币贬值趋向。这实际意味着人民币币值被高估。

"Processing trade is not trade,But a special kind of mode of production",This is what we have been advocated.because,Although the processing trade process express goods import and export,But in fact,Under the action of the order,Cargo right always in the purchaser party,Rather than processor party.That is,Import and export process,The goods have not been the right change.so,We have always advocated"Calculation between countries whether trade balance",Processing trade shall eliminate the formation of rigid surplus(Process cost).If it,China's general trade deficit will be,This will fundamentally force-out RMB appreciation space,The devaluation of RMB even shows trend.It means that the value of the RMB overvalued.

　　实际上，打从2011年起，中国政府开始推动国际贸易计算方式的改革，而这件事也被WTO接受并讨论，现在好像已经取得了重大进展。据报道，经济合作组织和WTO一起，经过多年努力，终于推出了一项全球贸易测算新方法——附加值(也有称增加值)贸易测算法，并在1月16日首度公布了反映这一方法的数据库。用这种新方法测算国际贸易，各国贸易失衡问题将获得重新评估。

In fact,From 2011 onwards,The Chinese government has started to promote the reform of the international trade calculation way,But it has also been WTO accept and discussion,Now it seems like it has made great progress.According to the report,Economic cooperation organization together and WTO,After many years of hard work,Finally launched a global trade measure method, the new value(Also have the added value of said)Trade measure method,And on jan 16, the first announced the reflect this method database.With the new method to calculate the management of international trade,Countries trade imbalances will be reassessed.

　　我认为，用“增加值”的说法比较准确。因为从其定义看，所谓“附加值”指的是，在国际贸易中，某一商品在本国新增的价值。比如，中国从韩国进口了150美元的商品，然后在中国进一步加工，并最终以170美元的价格出口到欧洲。如果按照传统的统计方法，中国对欧洲产生了170美元顺差，而中国因此产生的对韩国的150美元逆差，并没有体现在中欧贸易当中。但是，按照新的贸易统计方法，原本中国对欧洲的170美元贸易顺差将被分解为：韩国对欧洲产生了150美元顺差，而中国对欧洲只产生20美元顺差。实际上，中国的20美元顺差是在中国本土创造的“增加值”。

I think,with"Added value"That is accurate.Because from the definition to see,The so-called"Added value"Refers to the,In international trade,A commodity in the value of the new country.Such as,China from South Korea imported 150 dollars worth of goods,Then in China further processing,And finally with the price of 170 dollar exported to Europe.If, in accordance with the traditional statistical method,China had 170 dollar surplus in Europe,China thus generated $150 deficit to South Korea,And not reflected in central Europe of trade.but,According to the new trade statistics method,China was in Europe, us $170 trade surplus will be broken down to:South Korea to Europe had 150 dollar surplus,China to Europe makes twenty dollars surplus.In fact,China's twenty dollars surplus is in Chinese mainland created"Added value".

　　一部苹果手机：美国赚取360美元，韩国和日本赚取46.46美元，中国仅赚取6.54美元。这就是研究人员对一部苹果手机“增加值”做出的拆解。

A iphone:The United States to earn $360,South Korea and Japan earn $46.46,China earn only $6.54.This is the researchers to a iphone"Added value"To disassemble.

　　我们已多次看到，美国逼迫人民币升值的一个最为重要的理由是：中国对美贸易顺差太大。这样的说法，第一，无视现行国际货币体系之下，美元的特殊地位带给美国的刚性贸易逆差；第二，无视国际产业分工和美国对华出口封锁，带给中国的顺差刚性；第三，无视其他元器件生产国通过中国转口美国的事实，把中国加工出口美国的商品货值全部强加到了中国的头上。

We have seen many times,The United States make RMB appreciation one of the most important reason is:China's trade surplus with the us is too big.This idea,The first,Ignore the current under the international monetary system,Dollars special status to America's rigid trade deficit;The second,Ignore the international industrial division of labor and the United States exports to blockade,Bring China's surplus rigid;The third,Ignore other components producers in the United States through China transit facts,The Chinese processing exports to the United States to China all goods value on the head.

　　所以，国际贸易统计方式的变革对中国意义重大。按照“增加值贸易测算法”，2005年美中贸易逆差将会缩减一半以上，由2180亿美元减少至1010亿美元；2008年也会缩小40%以上。而刚刚公布的、以新算法计算的美中贸易逆差也将缩减25%。

so,International trade statistics for China to change the ways of great significance.According to the"The added value of trade measure method",In 2005 the U.S. trade deficit with China will cut more than half,Reduced from $218 billion to $101 billion;2008 will also be reduced by more than 40%.And just released/A new algorithm to the calculation of the U.S. trade deficit with China will be reduced 25%.

　　另外，德国对美国的贸易逆差转成贸易顺差。巴西对中国的贸易顺差减少45%，因巴西60%的出口都是大宗原材料，其中一部分出现在了出口至美国和欧洲的最终商品中。中国出口电子产品中40%的增加值来自于海外。再有就是，中间投入品占到了全球商品贸易中60%的份额，在全球服务贸易的比重更达70%。

In addition,Germany to America's trade deficit into trade surplus.Brazil to China's trade surplus to reduce 45%,Because Brazil 60% of export are bulk raw materials,Some in the export to the United States and Europe in the final goods.China's export electronic products of 40% of the value added from overseas.Another is the,Intermediate inputs of world merchandise trade accounted for 60% of the share,Global trade in services in the proportion of 70% more.

　　不过，我们还不知道最终中国的对外贸易到底是怎样的一个结果，但我坚信，中国并不存在那么大的贸易顺差。同时，我们也必须清醒，中国绝不是贸易强国，而仅仅是个贸易大国。我们的产业实力、技术实力和贸易实力都不足以支撑人民币大幅度升值。

but,We also don't know the China's foreign trade is exactly what a result,But I believe that,China does not have so big of trade surplus.At the same time,We must also be awake,China is not trade power,But only a trade power.Our industrial strength/Technical strength and trade strength are not enough to support the yuan rise greatly.