六大外资金融机构预测中国经济增长最高为9%，最低为7.8%

Six foreign financial institutions predict China's economic growth up to 9%,The lowest 7.8%

　　《中国经济周刊》 记者 谈佳隆

[China economic weekly] reporter About jialong

　　1月18日，国家统计局发布的宏观经济数据显示，去年全年我国国内生产总值(GDP)为 519322亿元，按可比价格计算比上年增长7.8%。这一数据虽然较上年增速有所放缓，却超过了去年年初7.5%的预期目标。值得庆幸的是，去年第四季度扭转了GDP增速连续6个季度逐季回落的态势。

1 month and day,The national bureau of statistics released by the macro economic data shows,Last year's gross domestic product in our country(GDP)for 51.9322 trillion yuan,Calculated at comparable prices 7.8% increase from the previous year.The data although previous year has slowed down,But more than 7.5% of the anticipated goal at the beginning of last year.Those who be worth to rejoice is,Last year in the fourth quarter turn the continuous growth of GDP and a quarter by quarter dropped the situation.

　　2013年，中国经济增长格局是否能够延续？存在的最大不确定性和风险又是什么？今年1月，《中国经济周刊》采访了包括汇丰银行、瑞银集团、花旗银行、星展银行、恒生银行、摩根大通等多家银行和投行的经济学家，听一听他们对于今年中国经济的看法。

In 2013,,China's economic growth pattern whether can continue?Is the most uncertainty and risk is???????In January,[China economic weekly]Interview including HSBC bank/ubs/citibank/DBS bank/Hang seng bank/Jpmorgan chase, a number of other Banks and investment bank economists,Listen to their views on China's economy this year.

　　“去年有很多风险，大家都担心中国经济是否会硬着陆，觉得有不确定性。相比之下，今年的经济呈现一个温和复苏的态势，所以看起来会有一点枯燥。”瑞银首席中国经济学家汪涛说。

"Last year, there are a lot of risk,Everyone is worried about whether China's economy will be a hard landing,Feel the uncertainty.Compared with,This year's economic present a mild recovery trend,So it seems that there will be a bit boring."Ubs chief China economist WangTao said.

　　而汇丰经济研究亚太区常务总监兼联席主管、大中华区首席经济学家屈宏斌[微博]则表示：“我们对于中国2013年的总体展望可以用一句话来总结，就是‘新领导新年新气象’。 温和复苏、温和通胀，货币宽松，加快金融改革。”

And HSBC asia-pacific economic research standing director and director of the joint/The greater China region, chief economist QuHongBin [micro bo], said:"We are 2013 years of Chinese overall outlook can use a word to summarize,is‘The new leadership New Year new atmosphere’. Moderate recovery/Mild inflation,Loose monetary,Speed up financial reform."

　　经济增长预期大相径庭

Economic growth prospects vary widely

　　每年年初，各大金融机构都会对中国当年经济增长给出一个预判数字，已成惯例。在今年，最为乐观的判断来自于星展银行。

At the beginning of every year,Each big financial institutions in China economic growth that will give a anticipation digital,Has become a practice.In this,The most optimistic judgement from DBS bank.

　　星展银行大中华区高级经济师梁兆基及其研究部认为，2013年GDP增长将从2012年的7.8%攀升至9%。

DBS bank senior economist in the greater China region LiangZhaoJi and research thought,In 2013 GDP growth in 2012 from 7.8% up to 9%.

　　汇丰的观点也较为乐观。“我们对于2013年GDP增速预测8.6%保持不变。”屈宏斌告诉《中国经济周刊》，“2012年中国GDP增速7.8%，是十余年来的最低水平，但对面临中长期结构性调整压力的中国来说，可以说是基本完成了在外需下滑冲击下稳增长的艰巨任务。”

HSBC's point of view also more optimistic."We for the 2013 GDP growth forecast 8.6% remain unchanged."QuHongBin tell[China economic weekly],"In 2012, China's GDP growth of 7.8%,Ten years is the minimum level,But for long-term facing structural adjustment pressure for China,Can be said to be completed in overseas market demand decline under the impact of the formidable task of steady growth."

　　事实上，很多金融机构都在去年四季度上调了中国的经济增长预期。摩根大通中国首席经济学家朱海斌表示：“我们将2013年GDP增长预期由此前的8.0% 上调至8.2%。2013年中国经济将经历周期性复苏，但增长潜力仍将处于长期下行通道。与去年中国同时面临周期及结构性因素引发的双重放缓相比，目前的状况已经大为改观。”

In fact,Many financial institutions are in the fourth quarter of last year raised China's economic growth prospects.Jpmorgan China chief economist ZhuHaiBin said:"We will be in 2013 GDP growth from 8.0% of the expected before Rise to 8.2%.In 2013, the Chinese economy will experience cyclical recovery,But the potential for growth will remain in long-term downward channel.And at the same time last year China facing cycle and structural factors caused by the slowdown in double compared,The present situation has changed greatly."

　　被采访的金融机构中，瑞银和恒生都给出了8%这一预测。恒生银行首席经济师严爱群认为：“内地经济于2012年第四季复苏，我们相信今年这趋势会持续。国内生产总值增长或由2012年预计的7.7%上升至2013年的8.0%。政府承诺加快审批基建项目，投资增长有望回升。至于消费则可望因居民收入快速增长而保持稳健。”

Who were interviewed in financial institutions,Ubs and hang seng is given the forecast of 8%.Hang seng bank chief economist YanAiQun think:"The mainland economy in the fourth quarter of 2012 recovery,We believe that this year the trend will continue.GDP growth in 2012 is expected to or by increasing from 7.7% in 2013 to 8.0%.The government promised to speed up infrastructure project examination and approval,Investment growth is expected to rebound.As for the consumption will be rapid growth of income for residents to keep steady."

　　与上述信心满满的金融机构不同，花旗给出的数字最为悲观，花旗银行(中国)有限公司零售银行研究与投资分析主管邱思甥告诉《中国经济周刊》：“我们预测今年中国GDP的增速可能只有7.8%，我们判断今年全国两会期间，政府应该会把经济增长定为7%。”之所以给出7.8%的预测主要是由于花旗认为，在今年拉动经济增长的投资、消费和贸易三驾马车中，贸易将拖累经济。

With the full of confidence on different financial institutions,Citigroup is the most pessimistic number,citibank(China)Co., LTD. Retail banking research and investment analysis QiuSi tell the nephews[China economic weekly]:"We forecast this year China's GDP growth may be only 7.8%,We judge the sessions this year,The government should have a 7% economic growth."Given the 7.8% prediction is mainly due to citigroup says,In this year, stimulate economic growth of investment/Consumption and trade in the troika,Trade will drag the economy.

　　外贸会否拖累经济的激辩

Foreign trade will be no drag economic shock debate

　　事实上，之所以各大金融机构对GDP数据的预测大相径庭，主要是对贸易增长有截然不同的看法，贸易将在今年成为中国经济增长最大不确定性之一。

In fact,The major financial institutions to GDP data of different prediction,Is mainly to the trade growth there are quite different opinions,Trade will become China's economic growth this year one of the biggest uncertainty.

　　在严爱群看来，基建投资理想、房地产建设缓慢复苏及去库存化趋势结束将是经济增长的主要动力。然而，全球经济形势仍然严峻，外贸前景难以乐观，外需疲弱则是经济复苏的隐忧。

In YanAiQun seems,Infrastructure investment ideal/Real estate construction slow recovery and to stock trend will be the end of the main power of economic growth.however,The global economic situation is still severe,Foreign trade prospects to optimistic,Now the weak is the potential for economic recovery.

　　摩根大通发布的报告认为，去年中国经济之所以能够企稳反弹，主要是因为消费相对保持坚挺，成为阻止经济放缓的强力缓冲，以及贸易活动显著改善。去年四季度的“跳涨”是主要推动力。

Jpmorgan chase that report,Last year, China's economy can rebound stabilises,Mainly because consumption remains relatively strong,To prevent economic slowdown as powerful buffer,And trade activities to improve significantly.The fourth quarter of last year"Jump up"Is the main driving force.

　　不过，朱海斌坦言：“我们的担忧是上述两大推动因素的利好影响可能将在2013年上半年有所削弱。去年四季度零售额的强劲增长势头可能将在未来几个月放缓，因为月度贸易数据波动非常剧烈，这反映了全球终端需求存在较高的不确定性。我们的全球团队预计，2013年全球经济将弱势开局，在年底之前将逐渐复苏，因此未来几个月贸易行业的表现可能将不及预期。”

but,ZhuHaiBin said:"Our concern is the above two factors to promote the good effect in the first half of 2013 May be weakened.Last year, four quarter retail sales strong growth momentum may be slowing in the coming months,Because the monthly trade data fluctuation is very severe,This reflects the existing global terminal demand higher uncertainty.Our global team expected,In 2013, the global economy will start the weak,By the end of the year will gradually recovery,So the next few months trade industry's performance may be less than expected."

　　信心最足的是给出中国GDP增长 9%目标的星展银行，梁兆基及其团队认为，过度看空外贸并没有必要，理由是“随着对欧洲出口下降态势止步和对美国出口持续增长，外部环境应该能够再给GDP增长添加0.5%”，而不是给经济增长拖后腿。

's most confident is given China's GDP growth 9% target DBS bank,LiangZhaoJi and team think,Excessive look empty and there is no need to foreign trade,Reason is"With the decline in exports to Europe situation walking and exports to the United States continued growth,External environment should be able to add 0.5% to GDP growth",Not for economic growth dragging.

　　邱思甥显然并不同意这一看法，在他看来，外贸非但不会给今年中国经济增长带来正贡献，还可能将带动整体经济增长率下降一个百分点，最明显的理由是欧洲仍然没有摆脱经济衰退的阴影。

QiuSi nephews are clearly not agree with this view,In his view,Foreign trade not only won't to China's economic growth this year to bring positive contribution,May also will drive the overall economic growth rate fell by one percent,The most obvious reason is that Europe is still not get rid of the shadow of the economic recession.

　　实体投资进入复苏通道

Entity investment in recovery channel

　　与外贸形势判断扑朔迷离相比，实体投资的稳定增长成为诸多经济学家的共识。

Compared with the foreign trade situation judgment complicated and confusing,The stability of the entity investment growth become the consensus of many economists.

　　预期最乐观的梁兆基认为，去年，中国固定资产投资增长为20%左右，相较平均水平低30%(平均为26%)。增长下降一部分原因是由当局主导的，但也有一部分是受领导班子交接，重大刑事审判以及与邻国激烈的领土争端所影响。如果投资增长今年回升15%，那么这将给2013年GDP带来1%的增长。

Expected the most optimistic LiangZhaoJi think,Last year,China's fixed asset investment growth is about 20%,Compared with 30% lower average level(An average of 26%).Growth down part of the reason is the leading by authorities,But there are also part of leadership is the handover,Major criminal trial and neighboring fierce territorial disputes have influence.If the investment growth 15% rally this year,Then this will give 2013 GDP bring 1% growth.

　　汪涛认为，“基础设施投资、房地产复苏、去库存将是经济增长的主旋律。”邱思甥则明确表示，由于有政府在基础投资建设等方面的刺激政策，中国经济是“掉”不下来的。

WangTao think,"Infrastructure investment/Real estate recovery/To inventory will be the theme of economic growth."QiuSi nephews are made clear,With the government in the basic investment stimulus,China's economy is"off"Don't down.

　　实际上，在“党政换届经济”继续带动下，基建投资的加速有望持续，新开工项目计划总投资增速仍保持高位。这一轮从去年三四月份反转的投资增速表明了，政府刺激政策虽然没有大张旗鼓，却始终悄然推进。包括交通、水利、电力相关数据都支持这一看法。

In fact,in"Of party and government economic"Continue to drive down,The acceleration of the infrastructure investment is expected to continue,New projects planned total investment growth is still remain high.This round in April last year from three reverse investment growth shows that,The government stimulus policy though not in a big way,But always quietly propulsion.Including traffic/Water conservancy/Power related data support the idea.

　　朱海斌这样告诉《中国经济周刊》：“最瞩目的要数基建投资，如铁路和地下轨道交通投资。作为固定资产投资风向标的新开工项目投资总额显示这一趋势将在近期得到延续。房地产目前正处在复苏期的第三个阶段，即建筑及投资活动的复苏。此外，制造业企业去库存似乎已告一段落，库存重建已经开始。这些都是积极信号。”

ZhuHaiBin told[China economic weekly]:"Most of the attention of infrastructure investment,Such as railway and underground rail transit investment.As a fixed asset investment vane new project total investment shows that this trend will continue in the near future for.Real estate is now FuSuQi in the third stage,Namely construction and investment activities of recovery.In addition,Manufacturing enterprise to inventory seems to have come to an end,Inventory rebuilding has started.These are all positive signal."

　　不过，实体投资最大的不确定性来自于政府可能在房价再度失控上涨之际出台房地产抑制政策。严爱群判断，虽然商品房销售及保障房建设持续回升，可望带动房地产固定资产投资增长略为增加，但增加的速度将受到房地产调控政策所影响，拖累制造业投资增长则可能继续放缓。

but,The uncertainty of the largest entity investment from the government in house prices may rise again out of control of real estate inhibition on policy.YanAiQun judgment,Although sales of commercial property and security room construction continue to rise,Real estate is expected to drive the fixed asset investment growth increased slightly,But increasing the speed will be affected by the real estate regulation policy,Drag manufacturing investment growth is likely to slow.