2012年全国天然橡胶进口量增价跌，鉴于我国天然橡胶对外依存度较高，轮胎等下游行业的生产成本随之下降；展望2013年，进口胶价格有可能继续下跌。业内人士认为，尽管轮胎企业的生产成本下降，但产品价格也随之下调，因此其利润空间未必会受益于胶价下跌，真正的好转应当是在胶价企稳和缓步回升之时。

In 2012 the natural rubber imports increased price falls,In view of our country foreign higher ratio of dependence on natural rubber,Tires and other downstream industry production costs fall subsequently;In 2013,Imported rubber prices may continue to fall.The personage inside course of study thinks,Although tire enterprise production cost down,But the price of a product and then cut,So the profit space is not necessarily will benefit from rubber price fall,The real better should be in the glue price stabilises and back slowly when.

　　进口胶价下跌约三成

Imported rubber price fell about thirty percent

　　海关总署公布的2012年全国进口重点商品量值数据显示，2012年，我国累计进口天然橡胶218万吨，较2011年（210万吨）高出3.6%；进口金额为68.13亿美元，同比下降27.4%。这意味着天然橡胶进口量增加的同时，价格却在下降。

The general administration of customs announced 2012 national import key commodity value data display,In 2012,,Our country accumulated imported 2.18 million tons of natural rubber,More than 2011 years(2.1 million tons)More than 3.6%;The import amount of $6.813 billion,27.4% year-on-year drop.This means that the natural rubber imports increased at the same time,Prices have fallen.

　　2012年，福建省共进口天然橡胶12.3万吨，比上年增长16.2%；价值3.6亿美元，下降19.9%；进口平均价格为2914美元/吨，跌幅为31.1%。山东口岸进口天然橡胶114.3万吨，同比增加1.6%；价值37.4亿美元，下降29.03%；进口平均价格为3276美元/吨，跌幅为30.4%。

In 2012,,Fujian province imported 123000 tons of natural rubber,A 16.2% increase from the previous year;Value of $360 million,Fell by 19.9%;Import average price for 2914 dollars/ton,Down 31.1%.Shandong port imported 1.143 million tons of natural rubber,Increased by 1.6% year-on-year;Value of $3.74 billion,Fell by 29.03%;Import average price for 3276 dollars/ton,Down 30.4%.

　　分析人士认为，进口天然橡胶价格下跌，主要是受到宏观经济形势的影响，尽管中国天然橡胶对外依存度较高，但是天然橡胶是全球定价的产品，需求的萎缩必然导致价格的下跌。

Analysts believe that,Import natural rubber prices,Mainly by the influence of the macro economic situation,Despite the high ratio of dependence on foreign natural rubber,But the natural rubber is a global pricing products,Demand atrophy will inevitably lead to a drop in prices.

　　对于今年的进口天然橡胶价格走势，业内人士预计，2013年全球汽车业发展的信心依然不足，轮胎市场总体疲软，再加上天胶产量还在增长，胶价有可能继续下跌。

For this year's import natural rubber price trend,The personage inside course of study is expected to,In 2013, the global auto industry development is still lack of confidence,Tire market overall weakness,Plus day glue production is on the increase,Rubber price may continue to fall.

　　中银国际期货研究员马堃表示，2013年国内天然橡胶供应量很大，供大于求的现象依然存在，大部分东盟国家天然橡胶种植面积依然在扩大，加之国内中间商库存了大量的天然橡胶，预计今年天然橡胶价格相对2012年仍有下跌的可能。数据显示，2013年，天然橡胶产量预计增加4%-6%，超过1082万吨。

Bank of China international futures researcher 马堃 said,In 2013, a domestic natural rubber supply,The phenomenon of supply exceeds demand still exist,Most of the asean countries natural rubber plant area is still expanding,Together with the domestic middlemen inventory a large number of natural rubber,This year is expected to natural rubber the relative price of 2012 still has the possibility of falling.Data display,In 2013,,Natural rubber is expected to yield increased by 4% - 6%,More than 10.82 million tons.

　　轮胎企业短期未获利好

Tire enterprise short-term profit is not good

　　胶价下跌给市场带来了轮胎企业成本下降、盈利好转的想象空间。

Rubber price down to market with the tyre enterprise cost down/Profit better imagination space.

　　据国金证券分析师测算，2013年天然橡胶价格有可能继续下跌，围绕在2.5万元/吨震荡，以2012年天胶均价2.68万元/吨计算，有6.7%的下降空间，以橡胶成本（天胶+合成胶）占轮胎60%，轮胎毛利率15%计算，胶价降低6.7%可提升销售净利率约2.6%。

According to the kingdom gold securities analyst estimates,In 2013, natural rubber prices may continue to fall,Around 25000 yuan/ton concussion,In 2012 days glue average price 26800 yuan/ton calculation,A 6.7% reduction space,With rubber cost(Day gum + synthetic rubber)60% of tire,Tire gross profit rate 15% computation,Rubber price 6.7% lower can promote sales net interest rate of about 2.6%.

　　不过，在轮胎企业看来，胶价价格下跌短期并未对企业构成利好。青岛双星有关负责人在接受中国证券报记者采访时就表示，长期看，橡胶价格下跌对企业构成利好，但短期内由于企业都有原材料存货，价格相对较高，一旦原料降价，下游客户也会有产品降价要求，对企业不见得是好事。

but,In the tire enterprise looks,Rubber price price falls short of enterprise does not constitute a bullish.Qingdao binary relevant person in charge told China stock certificate report reporter to interview said,The long run,Rubber prices to the enterprise good composition,But in the short term because enterprise have raw materials inventory,Value is relative taller,Once the raw material price,Downstream customers also can have the product price reduction request,To the enterprise is not good.