郭丽琴

Guo Liqin

　　[ 在当前美元贬值的大环境下，更多地进口一些先进机械设备、部分高端消费品，是有利于国内经济发展的。随着我们进口的逐步升级，我们加工贸易部分的出口，也会进入更高档次 ]

[ Under the circumstances of the current value of the dollar,Import some of the more advanced machinery and equipment/Part of the high-end consumer goods,Is conducive to the development of the domestic economy.As we import escalate,We are part of the processing trade export,Will enter the higher class ]

　　随着新年长假的结束，接踵而至的外贸数据让人眼前一亮，这也预示着，未来数月中国经济可能超预期复苏。同时，大家也在等待着WTO公布最后统一口径的贸易总额排名，各种迹象表明,中国在货物贸易总量上已经与美国非常接近。

As the end of the lunar New Year holiday,The ensuing foreign trade data to let a person shine at the moment,It also heralds the,In the next few months China's economy may be more than expected recovery.At the same time,We are waiting for the WTO published finally unified caliber of total trade volume ranks,All kinds of signs,China's total trade in goods has very close with the United States.

　　与此同时，新的一年，中国外贸却仍面临着相当多的新的复杂情况，这些挑战甚至要超过欧债危机全面发酵的2012年。

At the same time,The New Year,China's foreign trade is still faced with quite a few of the new complex situation,These challenges even more than the European debt crisis comprehensive fermentation in 2012.

　　《第一财经日报》近日就此专访了中国国际经济交流中心副理事长兼秘书长、商务部原副部长魏建国。他对本报记者指出，2013年,中国面临的外部环境，要比2012年更为严峻。但是2013年全年，中国外贸预计仍能达到2位数的增长。

[First financial daily]Recently on an interview with the vice-president of the China international economic and exchange center holds secretary-general/Former deputy commerce minister wei jianguo said.He told our reporter said,In 2013,,Facing the external environment in China,Is much more severe than in 2012.But all of 2013,China's foreign trade still are expected to achieve double-digit growth.

　　魏建国认为，在世界各国货币争相贬值的大环境下，中国若能改革既有的“重出口，轻进口”策略，转而务实扩大进口，不仅可以扩大消费，升级出口产品结构，解决就业，还能减少贸易摩擦，成为一个真正负责任、互利共赢的大国。

Wei jianguo, think,Under the circumstances of countries around the world scramble to depreciate,If China will reform the existing"The heavy export,Light import"strategy,To pragmatic to increase imports,Not only can expand consumption,Upgrade export products structure,Solve the employment,Can also reduce the trade friction,Become a truly responsible/Mutual benefit and win-win results.

　　第一财经日报：你怎么判断2013年全年的经济走势和外部环境?与已经过去的2012年相比，是更有挑战性还是更平稳?

First financial daily:How do you judge 2013 full-year economic trends and the external environment?Compared with the already the past 2012 years,Is more challenging or more smoothly?

　　魏建国：从长远来说，或者说未来的3~5年，世界经济有三个趋势：

Wei jianguo, a:In the long run,Or 3 ~ 5 years in the future,There are three of the world economy:

　　首先，全球经济有走出金融危机的负面影响、企稳回升的迹象。

First of all,The negative impact of the global economy is out of the financial crisis/Stabilizing signs of recovery.

　　其次，依然有很多不确定、变化的因素，主要表现在美欧日的经济状况都各有问题。美国经济复苏还没有稳定，量化宽松政策之后，并没有达到效果。在经济政策领域没有其他手段可用，虽然刚解决了财政悬崖问题，但是又遇到了债务上限的问题。欧洲不确定性更大，欧债危机在今年3月将面临考验，虽然德国并不希望出现双输的情况，现在还没有抛弃希腊，但是我对欧洲经济回升的信心也不太足。

The second,Still have a lot of uncertainty/change,Mainly displays in the us and Europe, economic conditions are all have problems.The U.S. economic recovery is not stable,After the quantitative easing policy,Did not reach effect.No other method can be used in the field of economic policy,Although just solve the problem of the fiscal cliff,But also meet the problems of the debt ceiling.Greater uncertainty in Europe,The European debt crisis in March will be tested,Although Germany does not want a lose-lose situation,There is no abandon Greece,But I am confidence in Europe's economic recovery also not too sure of themselves.

　　日本作为全球第三大经济体，经济下行已久，中日贸易明显下降，目前日本采取了量化宽松的政策，日元又进入贬值周期，这些都是强硬的刺激经济的政策，但事实上，日本最需要的，是金融财税改革，这个已经纠结了20年的东西，日本政府不敢做。目前日本也希望能够通过TPP谈判这个外力来推动改革，但是很难；中日争端也是短期内影响其经济发展的大事件。

Japan as the world's third largest economy,The economic downturn,Sino-japanese trade declined obviously,Japan adopted the policy of quantitative easing,The yen into value cycle again,These are tough economic stimulus policies,But in fact,Japan's most need,Is the financial taxation reform,This has over 20 years,The Japanese government did not dare to do.Japan also hopes to through the TPP negotiations the external force to push through reforms,But it is hard to;Disputes between China and Japan is also in the short term, the major events that affect the economic development.

　　第三，包括金砖国家在内的发展中国家经济增速放缓，比如墨西哥、巴西、印度的经济增速就在放缓。这些国家在新的一年，是否还能充当全球经济的引擎，还是个不确定的问题。此外，困扰全球的高失业率也是社会不稳定因素。阿拉伯国家现在平均失业率大约为30%~40%，西班牙大约为26%，而整个欧元区失业率则达到30%，高失业率与老龄化已经成为全球最大的两大社会问题。

In the third,, including the brics countries, developing countries, economic growth is slowing,Such as Mexico/Brazil/India's economic growth is slowing.These countries in the New Year,Whether can also act as the engine of the global economy,Is still an uncertain problem.In addition,Troubling the world's high unemployment and social instability.Arab countries now average unemployment rate is about 30% ~ 40%,Spain is about 26%,And the unemployment rate has reached 30% for the euro zone,High unemployment and the aging population has become the world's largest two big social problems.

　　所以，我个人认为，2013年,中国面临的外部环境,要比2012年更为严峻。

so,Personally, I think,In 2013,,Facing the external environment in China,Is much more severe than in 2012.

　　日报：那你怎么看待2013年全年进出口增速情况？

daily:So what do you think about 2013 full-year growth of import and export situation?

　　魏建国：我个人认为，2012年，中国虽然没有完成年初制定的进出口总额同比增长10%的增速目标，但已经尽了力。此外，我对2013年，中国外贸进出口同比增速达到2位数，还是抱有信心的。

Wei jianguo, a:Personally, I think,In 2012,,Early in China although there is no complete set of import and export volume grew 10% growth target,But it is done.In addition,I am 2013,China's foreign trade import and export growth to double-digit year-on-year,Still have confidence.

　　原因包括，首先，企业信心很强，虽然对欧美市场出口下滑，但是对亚非拉美市场的开拓比较顺利。以非洲为例，2012年，中非双边贸易总额已经达到2000多亿美元，同比增长23%，未来3~5年，预计增速都将超过欧洲市场。中国企业在市场开拓的过程中，对于适应新兴市场国家的产品开发，以及相应的说明书修改，都在积极地努力。

Reasons include,First of all,Business confidence is very strong,Although the decline in exports to Europe and America market,But in Asian and Latin American markets to develop more smoothly.In Africa, for example,In 2012,,China-africa bilateral trade volume has reached more than $2000,Up 23% from a year earlier,The next 3 to 5 years,Growth is expected to be more than the European market.Chinese enterprises in the process of market development,To meet the product development in emerging market countries,And the corresponding specification changes,Are actively trying to.

　　其次，国家已经充分认识到，如果任外贸增速跌下去，不采取相应措施，就会失去促进经济发展的三驾马车之一。反映在外贸上，就会最终失去部分出口市场，而市场一旦失去，再夺回来需要投入的精力财力，比维持现状要多得多，所以最好的办法，还是出台一些优惠政策，帮助企业渡过难关，让企业在维持住现有市场的同时，有1~2年的时间，根据新市场需求，研发转变适应新市场需求的产品。

The second,Countries have already fully realized,If any foreign trade growth in the fall,Don't take corresponding measures,Lose to promote economic development of one of the troika.Reflect on the foreign trade,Will eventually lose part of the export market,And markets once lost,Back again need to invest in energy resources,Far more than the status quo,So the best way,Or a some preferential policy,Help enterprises to survive,Let the enterprise while maintain the existing markets,Have 1 ~ 2 years,According to the new market demand,Research and development products to adapt to the new market demand.

　　最后，中国外贸仍然是有优势的，中国企业要把握机遇，苦练内功。2013年，如果我们进口政策不发生改变，国际市场也依然疲弱的话，中国外贸同比增速大致为10%~15%，走势为前低后高。而拐点将会出现在4月份左右，逆差月份比去年要小。

The last,China's foreign trade is still has advantages,Chinese enterprises should grasp the opportunity,Hard skills.In 2013,,If we import policies do not change,The international market is still weak,Roughly 10% ~ 15% year-on-year growth of China's foreign trade,For the former low after high.The turning point will appear around April,In deficit is smaller than last year.

　　在这种时候，如果能够开启国内市场内需，加大进口力度，不仅能够解决国内就业，也能在国际上表现一个负责任大国的风范。

In this time,If you can open the domestic market demand,Increase the intensity of the import,Not only can solve the domestic employment,Can show a responsible big country in the world of style.

　　日报：为何选在这个时机提倡“扩大进口”？

daily:Why choose at this time to promote"Increase imports"?

　　魏建国：确实，现在经济形势一个先兆是，包括欧美日在内，各国货币都在竞相贬值，以便加大出口。如果中国在现在这个时候加大进口，就能在国际上体现出一个负责任大国和平崛起、互利共赢的形象。因为，在邻国或者友邦有困难的时候提供帮助，是比什么都重要的。

Wei jianguo, a:indeed,Now the economic situation is a precursor,Europe and the United States, included,Currencies are racing to depreciate,In order to increase the export.If China is increasing imports at this late an hour,Can in the international carrying a responsible big country peaceful rise/Mutual benefit and win-win results.Because of the,In neighboring or aia have a difficult time to help,Is more important than anything.

　　在过去几十年里，中国实行的，都是鼓励出口、限制进口的政策。这样做主要是为了积累外汇。现在，中国已经积累了过多的贸易顺差，对国家的长远发展其实是不利的。对于一般国家而言，外汇储备只要能达到3个月进口总额之和，就是合理的上限了，但中国外汇储备已经远远超过了这一数字。从去年的情况来看，也是进口增速远低于出口增速，依然积累了2000多亿美元的贸易顺差，主要还是因为进口没做到位。

Over the past few decades,China's,Is to encourage exports/Restrict import policy.Exist mainly to foreign exchange accumulation.now,China's trade surplus has accumulated too much,Against the long-term development of the country is.For countries in general,Foreign exchange reserves, as long as can achieve 3 months the sum of total imports,Is a reasonable limit,But China's foreign exchange reserves have been far more than this number.Judging from last year,Also import growth rate is far lower than the export growth,Still has accumulated more than $2000 in trade surplus,Mainly because imports didn't do it.

　　在当前美元贬值的大环境下，更多地进口一些先进机械设备、部分高端消费品，是有利于国内经济发展的。过去，我们主要进口铁矿石、煤炭、初级钢材等，起步比较低，随着我们进口的逐步升级，我们加工贸易部分的出口，也会进入更高档次。以非洲为例，IMF预测，非洲2013年的经济增速，将从去年的5.1%，上升至6%，非洲有十亿人口，中国去年对非的出口，也有两位数的增长。中国应该抓住这一机会，加大与非洲国家的合作。比如，在与尼日利亚合作时，不再单纯从该国进口原油，而是在当地加工后，再进口初级产品。

Under the circumstances of the current value of the dollar,Import some of the more advanced machinery and equipment/Part of the high-end consumer goods,Is conducive to the development of the domestic economy.In the past,We mainly import iron ore/coal/Primary steel products, etc.,Start with low,As we import escalate,We are part of the processing trade export,Will enter the higher class.In Africa, for example,The IMF forecasts,In 2013, economic growth in Africa,From last year's 5.1%,Up to 6%,Africa has a population of billions,China's exports to the last year,Also have double-digit growth.China should seize this opportunity,Increased cooperation with African countries.Such as the,When working with Nigeria,No longer pure crude oil imports from the country,But after the local processing,Imports of primary products.

　　而且，进口本身也能带动自身经济的发展。首先，随着进口的增长，加工贸易的出口也会增长。此外，还可以带动全产业链，以及销售网络的发展。通过开展名牌专销点，还可以带动大学生就业。总体而言，通过加强与其他国家的合作，可以减少贸易摩擦，解决就业，以及促进消费。

and,Import itself can also lead to the development of its economy.First of all,As the growth of the import,Processing trade exports will also increase.In addition,Also can drive the whole industrial chain,And the development of sales network.Through the development of famous brand ZhuanXiaoDian,Can also lead to college students' employment.On the whole,By strengthening cooperation with other countries,Can reduce the trade friction,Solve the employment,And the promotion of consumption.

　　十八大已经提出要坚持出口和进口并重的战略决策。在具体政策方面，我们也有很多文章可做。首先，可以加大同发达国家的关系，比如以瑞士名表为代表的高端消费品进口，其实不会对国内产业造成太多冲击，与此类似的还有香水、服装、皮鞋、汽车。其次，加大进口资源类产品，但是主体可以从原材料改成经过加工的初级产品。最后，研究进口关税，从内需市场出发，调整进口税的范围、品种以及幅度。

Eighteen big has offered to both on export and import of strategic decisions.In terms of specific policies,We also can do a lot of articles.First of all,Can increase the relations with developed countries,Such as represented by Swiss watch of high-end imports of consumer goods,In fact won't cause too much impact to domestic industries,Similar to this and perfume/clothing/Leather shoes/car.The second,Increase imports of resource products,But subject to primary products from raw materials to processed.The last,The import tariff,Starting from the domestic market,The scope of adjust the import duties/Variety and range.