2013年我国临储菜籽收购价格可能再度上调，供给偏紧的格局还将延续，油菜籽进口量有望刷新历史纪录。

In 2013 our country near store rapeseed price may increase again,Tight supply pattern will continue,Canola imports are expected to refresh record.

　　2012年我国进口油菜籽293万吨，同比增长132%，为历史第二高位，主要因大量国产菜籽转为临储，国内市场供给紧张，菜油成本也被临储价格推高，为进口菜籽提供机会。另外，沿海地区压榨产能大幅扩张也是拉动进口的重要原因。

In 2012 China imported 2.93 million tons of rapeseed,Up 132% from a year earlier,The second high history,Mainly because of a large number of domestic rapeseed to temporary storage,Domestic market supply tensions,In the vegetable oil cost has also been store prices,Provide opportunities for imported vegetable seeds.In addition,Coastal areas crushing capacity expansion is also significantly boost imports.

　　进口主要集中在东南沿海

Imports mainly concentrated in the southeast coast

　　2012年我国油菜籽进口主要集中在广东、广西及福建等东南沿海地区，其中广西进口115.8万吨，同比增长1.95倍；广东进口104.6万吨，同比增长31.2%；福建进口40.8万吨，上年没有进口。3省区进口量合计达到261万吨，占全国进口量的89.15%。另外，辽宁进口31万吨，上年为6.1万吨；内蒙古进口7831吨，上年为1.2万吨。

Rapeseed in China imports mainly concentrated in guangdong in 2012/Guangxi, fujian southeast coastal area, etc,The guangxi import 1.158 million tons,Year-on-year growth of 1.95 times;Guangdong imported 1.046 million tons,Up 31.2% from a year earlier;Fujian import 408000 tons,No import last year.3 provinces imports amounted to 2.61 million tons,89.15% of total imports.In addition,Liaoning import 310000 tons,Last year at 61000 tonnes;Inner Mongolia imports 7831 tons,Last year at 12000 tonnes.

　　我国油菜籽进口企业较为集中，2012年进口菜籽的企业有14家，前4家进口量占全部进口的73.6%。其中，防城港枫叶粮油进口油菜籽63.6万吨，占全国进口量的21.8%，其年压榨产能为60万吨，基本实现满负荷生产，这与其加拿大外资企业的背景有直接关系；中纺粮油进出口公司进口52.9万吨，占比18.1%；东莞富之源进口49.5万吨，占比16.9%；大海粮油（防城港）进口49.2万吨，占比16.8%；嘉里粮油（营口）公司进口31万吨，占比10.6%；福州集佳进口13.9万吨，占比4.7%；重庆红蜻蜓进口6.1万吨，占比2.1%；华粮物流北良公司进口6万吨，占比2.1%；湛江港集团公司进口6万吨，厦门银祥进口5.7万吨，湛江中纺进口5.4万吨，钦州中粮进口4.9万吨。

Enterprise is concentrated rapeseed import in China,There are 14 imported vegetable seeds in 2012 enterprises,Before four imports accounted for 73.6% of all imports.Among them,Fangchenggang maple grain and oil import 636000 tons of rapeseed,21.8% of total imports,Its crushing capacity is 600000 tons,Basic implementation at full capacity production,The Canadian foreign capital enterprise is directly related to the background;ZhongFang imports 529000 tons of grain and oil import and export corporation,Accounted for 18.1%;Dongguan rich source of imports of 495000 tons,Accounted for 16.9%;The sea grain and oil(Fangcheng port)Imports of 492000 tons,Accounted for 16.8%;Kerry grain and oil,(yingkou)Companies to import 310000 tons,Accounted for 10.6%;Fuzhou set plus imports of 139000 tons,Accounted for 4.7%;Chongqing red dragonfly imports 61000 tons,Accounted for 2.1%;China imported 60000 tons of grain logistics beiliang company,Accounted for 2.1%;Zhanjiang harbour group company imported 60000 tons,Xiamen auspicious import 57000 tons of silver,Zhanjiang ZhongFang imports 54000 tons,Qinzhou grain imports of 49000 tons.

　　供给减与产能增致进口剧增

Supply reduced and productivity increased imports surge

　　2012年国家临时储备收购夏收菜籽377万吨，计划收购秋收菜籽48万吨，预计全年临储收购量达425万吨，占总产量的比重超过35%，折合菜籽油约150万吨。

2012 national temporary reserves to buy the summer harvest rapeseed 3.77 million tons,Plans to acquire the autumn harvest rapeseed 480000 tons,Forecast over the storage volume of 4.25 million tons,Accounts for more than 35% of total production,Is equivalent to about 1.5 million tons of rapeseed oil.

　　2011年国家临储收购菜籽超过400万吨，但当年有关部门通过竞价和定向销售的方式累计向市场投放了198万吨菜籽油，有效弥补了供需缺口，而2012年国家仅向市场投放了367万吨临储大豆，没有以任何形式投放油菜籽。大量菜籽油转为临时储备，加上农户留作自用消费外，市场上可流通的菜籽油数量十分有限。

Store purchase rapeseed in the country more than 4 million tons in 2011,But when the relevant departments of the cumulative to the market by means of bidding and directional sales dropped 1.98 million tons of rapeseed oil,Make up for the gap between supply and demand effectively,In 2012 in the country to market only 3.67 million metric tons of soybeans,Without in any way on the rapeseed.A lot of rapeseed oil into temporary reserves,Plus the self-use are farmers consumption,Negotiable on the market of rapeseed oil quantity is limited.

　　另外，2012年临储油菜籽收购价提高400元/吨，至5000元/吨，菜籽集中上市期价格最高达5300元/吨，导致菜籽油成本普遍在11200元/吨以上。供给减少和价格高企，为加拿大低价菜籽和菜籽油进口提供了机会。

In addition,In the 2012 oil storage rapeseed price increase 400 yuan/ton,To 5000 yuan/ton,Rapeseed centralized listing period up to 5300 yuan/ton price,Rapeseed oil costs are generally in more than 11200 yuan/ton.Reduced supply and high prices,Provides an opportunity to Canada low rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports.

　　2011年下半年以来，沿海多家新建和改建的油菜籽加工厂陆续竣工投产，对进口油菜籽的需求持续强劲。监测显示，过去两年广西、广东和福建共有8家新建和改建油菜籽压榨油厂投产，合计年压榨油菜籽能力达450万吨。截至2012年底，东南三省油菜籽压榨产能超过1000吨/日的企业主要有：广西防城港大海（2000吨/日）、防城港枫叶粮油（2000吨/日）、钦州中粮（2000吨/日）；广东东莞益海（2000吨/日）、湛江渤海（3000吨/日）、湛江中纺（2500吨/日）；福建厦门银祥（1500吨/日）、福建集佳（1500吨/日）、漳州中纺（1500吨/日）、厦门中盛（1500吨/日）、厦门中禾（1500吨/日项目在建）。

Since the second half of 2011,Coastal home construction and renovation of rapeseed more factories were completed and put into production,Continued strong demand for imports of rapeseed.Monitor display,In the past two years in guangxi/Guangdong and fujian has eight building and rebuilding rapeseed oil squeeze,Total annual capacity of 4.5 million tons of squeezing rapeseed.By the end of 2012,Three provinces in the southeast rapeseed crushing capacity more than 1000 tons/day of enterprise mainly:Guangxi fangcheng port the sea(2000 tons/day)/Fangchenggang maple leaf to grain and oil(2000 tons/day)/Qinzhou cofco(2000 tons/day);Dongguan yi hai(2000 tons/day)/Zhanjiang bohai sea(3000 tons/day)/Zhanjiang ZhongFang(2500 tons/day);Fujian xiamen silver cheung(1500 tons/day)/Fujian set better(1500 tons/day)/Zhangzhou ZhongFang(1500 tons/day)/Xiamen sheng in the(1500 tons/day)/Xiamen in the wo(1500 tons/day project under construction).

　　2013年临储菜籽收购价或升

Rapeseed price or for storage in the 2013 litres

　　中央一号文件提出，要按照生产成本加合理利润的原则，继续提高小麦、稻谷最低收购价，适时启动玉米、大豆、油菜籽、棉花、食糖等农产品临时收储工作；在进出口方面，要完善农产品进出口税收调控政策，加强进口关税配额管理，健全大宗品种进口报告制度，推动进口来源多元化。

The central file no. 1,According to the principle of production cost plus a reasonable profit,Continue to improve the wheat/Rice has the lowest purchase price,Timely launch of corn/soybean/rapeseed/cotton/Sugar and other agricultural reserve work;In the import and export aspects,Agricultural products import and export tax regulation policy should be improved,Strengthen the management of import tariff quota,A sound system of varieties of commodities import report,Promote diversified import source.

　　有关部门先后公布了2013年小麦和稻谷的最低收购价，均比上年提高0.10～0.12元/斤。近年来油菜籽种植成本不断上涨，为保护农民种植积极性，2013年国家有望继续实施油菜籽临储收购政策，并将适当提高收购价格。由于市场预计4月份后国内外油脂价格走势偏空，因此，对菜籽收购价提高幅度不宜期望太高，目前市场预估临储收购价为2.60～2.70元/斤。

Authorities have reported the lowest purchase price of wheat and rice in 2013,All over the previous year increased by 0.10 ~ 0.12 yuan/kg.Rapeseed planting cost rising in recent years,To protect the farmers grow enthusiasm,2013 countries are expected to continue to implement rapeseed store purchase policy,And will raise the price.As the market is expected in April after oil prices at home and abroad are bearish,so,Increase of rapeseed price should not expect too much,Forecast the market at present in the store purchase price is 2.60 ~ 2.70 yuan/kg.

　　今年菜籽进口需求依然强劲

Rapeseed import demand remains strong this year

　　2012年国家临储菜籽收购价格为5000元/吨，超过市场预期，导致中储粮成为主要收购体，接受临储委托的企业赚取加工费的同时，在菜籽粕价格上涨期间获得了部分溢价，而没有临储收购指标的企业通过延长产业链，增加小包装油的销售来保证盈利，部分中小企业甚至放弃收购，转为做贸易或者直接转行。

In the 2012 national store rapeseed price is 5000 yuan/ton,More than market expectations,Lead to become major acquisition of grain storage in the body,Accept the entrusted by the storage enterprise in the earning process cost at the same time,During the meal prices won the part of the premium,Without store purchase index in the enterprise through the extension of industrial chain,Add small packing oil sales to guarantee profits,Some small and medium-sized enterprises and even give up,To do trade or career change directly.

　　如果2013年菜籽临储收购价继续提高，中储粮收购量一家独大的局面难以改变，行业资源进一步整合的同时，国产菜籽供给偏紧格局还将延续，进口需求也将较上年进一步增加。

If 2013 rapeseed store price continue to increase,Grain storage volume of the dominance of hard to change,While further integration of industry resources,Domestic rapeseed supplies tight pattern will continue,Import demand will further increase on the previous year.

　　以油菜籽临储收购价格5400元/吨、菜籽粕价格2400元/吨测算，国产菜籽油成本将攀升至11500元/吨以上，高于当前长江流域的价格10500～10700元/吨。

In rapeseed store purchase price 5400 yuan/ton/Meal price 2400 yuan/ton,Domestic rapeseed oil costs will rise to more than 11500 yuan/ton,In Yangtze river basin is higher than the current price of 10500 ~ 10700 yuan/ton.

　　目前，5月船期加拿大油菜籽对我国港口CNF报价698美元/吨，折合完税成本约5500元/吨，尽管进口菜籽价格偏高，但由于其含油率高于国产菜籽，压榨收益仍具有一定优势。3月前船期加拿大菜籽已无货，5月船期数量亦有限，不过国内企业前期已签订了大量采购订单，预计5月份之前月均到港量超过25万吨，全年进口量有望超过2009年的328万吨，刷新历史最高纪录。

At present,May schedule Canadian canola CNF price $698 / ton in China port,Reduced duty cost about 5500 yuan/ton,Although the price of imported rapeseed is on the high side,But because of its oil content is higher than domestic rapeseed,Squeezing yields still has certain advantages.Shipment to Canada before march rapeseed is not available,May shipment quantity is also limited,But the domestic enterprise prophase has signed a large number of purchase orders,Is expected in May month before arrival quantity more than 250000 tons,Total imports are expected to more than 2009 tonnes in 3.28 million,Set a new record.

　　2013年进口菜籽来源国或增

Rapeseed country or imported in 2013

　　加拿大农业及农业食品部最新预计，2013年加拿大油菜籽种植面积为2130万英亩，较上年减少约1%，由于单产将改善，预计油菜籽总产量将达1550万吨，远高于上年的1330万吨。

The Canadian agriculture and local agriculture latest forecasts,In 2013 Canada's canola planting area of 21.3 million acres,Has declined about 1% from a year earlier,Due to yield will improve,Rapeseed production is expected to 15.5 million tons,Is much higher than last year's 13.3 million tons.

　　加拿大油菜籽压榨产能已超过750万吨，国内压榨量在700万吨左右，出口量在700万～850万吨之间。

Canada rapeseed crushing capacity has more than 7.5 million tons,Domestic press around 7 million tons,Exports between 7 million ~ 8.5 million tons.

　　加拿大菜籽主要出口中国、欧盟、美国等，其中可供中国进口的菜籽量为300万～400万吨。2012年我国进口加拿大菜籽292.2万吨，占国内进口总量的99.7%，占国内新增菜籽供给量的近两成，其对国内市场的影响较大。未来几年我国对进口加拿大菜籽高度依赖的情况还将延续，但大幅增加的空间或将受到限制。

Canada rapeseed are mainly exported to China/The European Union/Such as the United States,Which is available for imports of Chinese rapeseed amount for 3 million ~ 3 million tons.In 2012 China's imports of Canadian 2.922 million tons of vegetable seeds,Accounted for 99.7% of domestic imports,Accounted for nearly twenty percent of new domestic rapeseed supplies,The bigger influence on the domestic market.The Canadian rapeseed is highly dependent on imports to China over the next few years will continue,But a big increase in space or will be limited.

　　目前，我国已经开始与澳大利亚就进口油菜籽问题展开谈判，且前苏联地区的菜籽产量近几年快速增加，也为我国菜籽进口增加了渠道。预计2013年我国可能增加从其他国家进口油菜籽的数量。

At present,Our country has begun to start negotiations with Australia imported rapeseed problem,And the former Soviet union rapeseed production. The rapid increase in recent years,Also for the import of rapeseed in China increase the channels.In China in 2013 is expected to increase the number of canola imports from other countries.

　　2012年我国除进口加拿大菜籽外，还从蒙古国进口油菜籽7831吨，同比减少4160吨，但在2010年前我国进口菜籽来源国还有澳大利亚、俄罗斯、乌克兰等。

In 2012 our country except Canada import rapeseed,Also from Mongolia imported 7831 tons of rapeseed,Compared with the reduction of 4160 tons,But 2010 years ago in our country imported rapeseed source countries and Australia/Russia/Ukraine and so on.

　　消息称，中国官员2012年11月到澳大利亚油菜籽产区进行了实地考察，两国针对有关进口澳大利亚菜籽事宜的会谈已经取得“非常积极的技术性意见交流”，澳大利亚和中国均希望在今年早期达成相关协议。受上述消息的影响，商业公司已经开始就澳大利亚菜籽出口对中国企业报价。

Sources said,Chinese officials to Australia in November 2012 rapeseed production areas for the field trip,The talks between the two countries on the import of rapeseed in Australia has been made"Very active technical exchanges",Australia and China are all hope to reach an agreement earlier this year.Affected by the news,Commercial companies have started rapeseed export companies in China offer in Australia.

　　澳大利亚农业和资源经济局预计，2012/2013年度该国的油菜籽产量为264万吨，较上年度下降15.6%；出口油菜籽210万吨，较上年度减少10%。如果贸易环境改善，且价格合适，2013年我国可能会重新开始进口澳大利亚油菜籽，2009年我国进口澳大利亚油菜籽4.4万吨。

Australian agriculture and resource economics is expected,2012/2013 of the country's rapeseed production of 2.64 million tons,Down 15.6% compared with last year;Rapeseed exports of 2.1 million tons,Fell 10% last year.If the trade environment,And the price is right,In 2013 Australian rapeseed may start import in China,In 2009 China imported 44000 tons of rapeseed in Australia.

　　近年来，乌克兰、俄罗斯等前苏联国家油菜籽产量呈恢复性增长，2013/2014年度乌克兰油菜籽播种面积达102万公顷，同比增长近1倍，预计产量将恢复至200万吨以上，2008/2009年度该国菜籽产量曾达创纪录的283万吨。尽管乌克兰菜籽总产量较少，但出口量占总产的90%以上，2009年我国曾进口乌克兰菜籽1.1万吨。俄罗斯油菜籽产量已连续3年增加，2012/2013年度已达到100万吨，较2009/2010年度增长46.3%，预计2013/2014年度将进一步增长至120万吨。前苏联地区油菜籽产量大幅增加，也为我国进口提供了机会。

In recent years,Ukraine/Russia's former Soviet countries such as rapeseed production recovery growth,2013/2014 Ukraine rapeseed planting area of 1.02 million hectares,Increased nearly 1 times,Production is expected to return to more than 2 million tons,2008/2009 rapeseed production in the country has hit a record 2.83 million tons.Despite low rapeseed production in Ukraine,But exports account for more than 90% of total output,In 2009 our country has imported Ukraine 11000 tons of vegetable seeds.Russia rapeseed production has increased for three years,2012/2013 has reached 1 million tons,A 46.3% growth in 2009/2010,2013/2014 are expected to further increase to 1.2 million tons.The former Soviet union rapeseed yield greatly increased,Also provide the opportunities for Chinese imports.