冯雷

Feng lei

　　2012年全球经济走势起起伏伏，变数层出不穷，推动我国国民经济发展的三驾马车承受了新的挑战。 2013年，我国以提升内需为主的经济发展模式，从根本上为对外贸易发展方式的转变提出了要求：实现出口与进口的战略平衡。

2012 global economic ups and downs,Variable emerge in endlessly,To promote the development of the national economy troika take a new challenge. In 2013,,To boost domestic demand in China is given priority to the economic development mode,Fundamentally to change the way of foreign trade development requirements are put forward:Implement the strategic balance of exports and imports.

　　转变外贸发展方式，要实现进出口平衡发展，进而实现国内外资源有效配置

Transformation of the mode of foreign trade development,In order to realize the balanced development of import and export,To achieve the efficient allocation of resources at home and abroad

　　进口与出口的平衡在转变外贸发展方式中有两个层次的含义：一是进口规模与出口规模的平衡发展，二是进口与出口在国民经济中均衡地发挥作用。

The balance of import and export in the transformation of the mode of foreign trade development, there are two levels of meaning:One is the size of the import and export of a balanced development of the scale,Second, import and export equilibrium to play a role in national economy.

　　所谓进口规模与出口规模的平衡发展，是指二者在发展的规模上保持大体的平衡，避免顺差和逆差的大起大落，长期的、大规模的顺差积累必然引起贸易伙伴间的摩擦，过度的逆差也会伤及自身经济的发展。进出口的大体平衡是在贸易中实现互利共赢的基础性条件。

The so-called imports and exports of a balanced development of the scale,Refers to both on the scale of the development of the overall balance,To avoid ups and downs of surplus and deficit,The long term/Massive accumulation of surplus is bound to cause friction between trading partners,Excessive deficits will hurt their own economic development.Import and export of general equilibrium is the realization of the basic conditions for the mutual benefit and win-win progress in the trade.

　　所谓进口与出口在国民经济中均衡地发挥作用，是指国民经济的发展要从主要在规模上更多地依赖于出口的增长，向注重从质量上依赖于出口的结构优化，依赖于进口的潜在作用转变。实现贸易大国向贸易强国的转变应该更加注重进口在国民经济发展中的作用。

So-called import and export of equilibrium to play a role in national economy,Refers to the development of the national economy to rely more on from the main in the scale of export growth,To pay attention to rely on the export structure optimization from the quality,Dependent on imports of the potential role of transition.To realize the change of trade country to trading powers should pay more attention to the import role in national economic development.

　　曾几何时，农产品贸易议题悄悄地被各种资源(尤其是能源和矿产资源)的话语权所替代，资源的争夺与掌控正在成为国际经贸活动的一个焦点。伴随着经济全球化的进程，出于对资源的战略考虑，发达国家正在把越来越多的制造业转移到发展中国家，全球分工的模式正在向发达国家主要投入与智力相关的要素，发展中国家除了廉价的劳动力之外，越来越多地投入与自然资源相关的要素，当发展中国家的经济发展出现资源短缺，越来越多地依赖于外部的资源供给时，发达国家又通过对国际资源的掌控从发展中国家的制造过程中再一次分割利润。

Once upon a time,Agricultural trade issues quietly all kinds of resources(Especially in the energy and mineral resources)voice,Resource competition and control is becoming a focus of the international economic and trade activities.Along with the process of economic globalization,Out of strategic considerations for resources,Developed countries are transferring more and more manufacturing to developing countries,Global division of labor pattern is to developed countries the main input factors associated with intelligence,In addition to the cheap labor in developing countries,More and more elements related to natural resources,When there is a shortage of resources, economic development in developing countries,When more and more depend on external resources to supply,Developed countries and through the control of international resources from developing countries in the process of manufacturing division profits again.

　　我国是一个资源相对短缺的国家，在国民经济的高速发展中，对各种外部资源的需求很大，大家耳熟能详的是，50%以上石油需要进口，钢铁产量世界第一，不但消耗国内的、同时还需要进口大量的铁矿石，诸如此类，不一而足。因此，对各种资源的合理利用、降低单产的能耗、提高资源的使用效率，是我国国民经济和对外贸易可持续发展的关键。

Our country is a country with a relative shortage of resources,In the high-speed development of national economy,Is a big demand for variety of external resources,Everyone is familiar,More than 50% of the oil needs to import,Steel production in the world,Not only domestic consumption/At the same time also need to import large quantities of iron ore,Such as this,To name but a few.so,Reasonable use of various resources/Reduce the yield per unit of energy consumption/Improve the efficiency of resource use,Is the key to the sustainable development of national economy and foreign trade in our country.

　　就贸易本身来看，进口与出口对资源消耗的意义截然不同。一般说来，出口主要利用国内的资源，进口主要利用国际的资源。从贸易政策的作用方向和程度来看，一国利用国内资源的自主性较高，而利用国际资源的自主性较低，难度较大，对于我国来说，难度更甚。从国内外两种资源的合理利用与有效配置来看，贸易政策的着重点应该实现向进口贸易的转移。

As trade itself,Import and export of resource consumption have very different meanings.As a general rule,Exports mainly use of domestic resources,Imports mainly use of international resources.From the perspective of the direction and degree of trade policy,A country's use of domestic resources autonomy is higher,The use of international resources autonomy is low,Is difficult,For our country,What is more challenging.At home and abroad from two angles of the rational use of resources and effective configuration,Trade policy should be implemented to focus in the import trade of transfer.

　　转变外贸发展方式，要循序推进两个战略阶段重心转换，加快贸易强国建设

Transformation of the mode of foreign trade development,Center of gravity transformation to gradual two strategic stage,Accelerate the construction of trading powers

　　从我国经济发展的实际情况来看，外贸发展方式的转变应按照两个阶段予以实施：第一个阶段以出口贸易政策调整为重点，第二个阶段以进口贸易政策调整为重点。两个阶段有着不同的战略重心，实现不同的战略目标。

Judging from the actual situation of China's economic development,Change the way of foreign trade development should be in accordance with the two phases:The first phase focused on export trade policy adjustment,The second phase focused on import trade policy adjustment.Two phases have different strategic center of gravity,Different strategy goals.

　　第一，重点调整出口贸易政策的阶段，实现出口贸易与进口贸易的平衡发展。对外贸易的平衡发展并非单纯指出口与进口在规模上的平衡甚至相等，而是指出口与进口在较为公平合理的国内外经贸环境中实现均衡发展。

The first,Key to adjust export trade policy,Realize the balance development of export trade and import trade.The balanced development of foreign trade is not a simple pointed mouth and imports equals the balance even in size,But pointed mouth and imported in a fair and reasonable to realize the balanced development of domestic and foreign economic and trade environment.

　　在不平等的国际贸易环境中，通过我国自身政策的调整，或约束出口，或扩大进口，所实现的贸易平衡本质上是畸形的，不符合有效配置国内外两种资源的要求。在美国等发达国家放宽对华高技术产品出口的背景下，我国的进口将会有一个高速的发展；我国经济发展对全球能源及其他重要资源产品的大量需求也会极大地推动进口规模的扩大。新的国际贸易环境将改变我们对贸易平衡状态的基本判断，2000亿-3000亿美元的贸易顺差只是一个表象，将会很快被高技术产品进口和经济发展所需要的能源及资源产品的进口所吞噬。

In the inequality of the international trade environment,Through our own policy adjustment,Or restrain exports,Or to increase imports,Achieve trade balance in nature is deformed,Do not conform to the requirements of the efficient allocation of resources both at home and abroad.In the United States and other developed countries under the background of relax high-tech exports to China,China's imports will have a high-speed development;China's economic development on global energy products and other important resources demand will greatly promote the expansion of import.New international trade environment will change our basic judgment of trade balance,$200 billion - $300 billion trade surplus is only one,Will soon be high-tech products import and energy needed for economic development and the import of resource products.

　　我们需要的应该是在一些具有标志性的国内外经贸环境特征下实现的贸易平衡：就国际经贸环境的特征而言，一是要突破明显具有歧视性的贸易限制，在影响贸易发展的重要变量上获得公平的国际贸易环境；二是要突破明显的投资歧视，为延伸贸易发展的海外直接投资提供有制度保障的市场化发展空间；三是要消除我国“入世”三大特殊条款在多边制度安排上的不利影响。就国内经贸环境的特征而言，一是要调整好消费、投资和贸易在拉动国民经济增长上的均衡分布；二是要调整好产业结构调整的合理动因结构，不再主要受外部需求的引导，换言之，外向型经济要在国民经济发展中的地位相对地下降。

We need should be in some domestic and foreign economic and trade environmental characteristics of the iconic achieve trade balance:In terms of the characteristics of the international economic environment,One is to break through the obvious discriminatory trade restrictions,On the important variables affecting the development of trade fair international trade environment;2 it is to break through the significant investment in discrimination,To extend trade overseas direct investment to provide a system guarantee for the development of marketization development space;Three is to eliminate our country"Wto accession"Three special conditions adverse impact on the multilateral institutional arrangements.In terms of domestic economic environment characteristics,One is to adjust consumption/Investment and trade balanced distribution in stimulating national economic growth;2 it is to adjust the industrial structure adjust the structure of the reasonable reason,No longer mainly guided by external demand,In other words,Export-oriented economy to relative decline in the position in national economic development.

　　第二，重点调整进口贸易的阶段，基本掌握统筹配置国内市场和资源、国际市场和资源的主导权，以适应我国国民经济发展的需要。

In the second,Adjust the import trade of stage,Basic grasp as a whole the configuration of the domestic market and resources/The dominance of international markets and resources,To adapt to the needs of the development of the national economy.

　　重点调整进口贸易的含义在于：在我国国民经济发展的过程中更有效地配置国际资源。掌握国际资源的话语权，在国际经贸制度框架中，如世界贸易组织、世界银行、国际货币基金组织中确立相应的地位，在大宗商品的国际贸易体制中掌握有关贸易规则及价格制定的发言权。此外，我国产业结构的调整和升级需要国际技术的支撑，作为转变贸易发展方式进而转变经济发展方式的一个重要方面，技术进口尤其是高新技术的进口占据着有效利用国际资源的高端地位。

Focus adjustment is the meaning of import trade:In the process of national economic development in China is more international resources effectively configuration.Master of international resources,In the institutional framework of international economy and trade,Such as the world trade organization (wto)/The world bank/The international monetary fund, established in the corresponding position,International trade in commodities master relevant trade rules in the system and price set by the voice.In addition,China's industrial structure adjustment and upgrade needs the support of international technology,As the transformation of the mode of trade development and transformation of the pattern of economic development an important aspect,Technology import, especially high and new technology plays a effective use of international resources of high-end imports of the status.

　　循序推进外贸发展方式转变两个战略阶段的关键在于合理地把握二者的互动关系。一是要掌控好出口方式转变与进口方式转变的互动关系，二是要掌控好出口方式和进口方式的转变与国民经济发展方式的互动关系。

Gradual change of the pattern of foreign trade development strategy of two stage is the key to properly grasp the interactive relationship between them.One way is to control a good export change with the change of the pattern of interaction between imports,2 it is to change the way of managing the export and import and national economic development way of interaction.

　　掌控出口方式转变与进口方式转变的互动关系，就是要推动我国从贸易大国向贸易强国发展。根据这一战略定位，转变外贸发展方式需要分别推动出口方式的转变和进口方式的转变。

Export control mode change with the change of the pattern of interaction between imports,Is to promote the development of our country from trade country to trading powers.According to the strategic positioning,Transformation of the mode of foreign trade development is driven by respectively changing the way of changing the way of exports and imports.

　　转变出口方式，在立足国内产业结构调整的基础上，实现出口贸易的发展，转变我国过度依赖劳动力资源优势、在资源和环境上付出巨大代价、片面追求出口规模的发展模式，从贸易大国的发展方式中走出来，代之以贸易强国的贸易发展模式。

Transformation of the mode of export,On the basis of the domestic industrial structure adjustment,The development of export trade,Change relying too much on labor resource advantage in our country/Pay a huge price on resources and the environment/One-sided pursuit of export scale model of development,From a big trade development way,Instead of trading powers trade development mode.

　　转变进口方式，改变以进口的增长作为抵消出口增长导致的巨大贸易顺差所带来的国际经贸关系紧张的局面，实现进口在充分合理利用国际资源方面的积极作用，实现有效利用国内外资源，推动国民经济的健康发展。

Transformation of the mode of import,Changes in import growth as a huge trade surplus offset export growth lead to tense situation brought about by the international economic and trade relations,For imported in fully the positive role in rational utilization of international resources,Achieve efficient use of resources at home and abroad,Promote the healthy development of national economy.

　　在贸易大国的成长过程中，进口所扮演的角色，往往会受到某种程度上的压制或压抑，因为进口的过快增长，会抵消出口规模增长在拉动经济发展方面的作用，即贸易大国的出口增长主要是表现为净出口的扩张，而不是进出口基本平衡条件下的出口增长。在这种导向下，进口对国民经济发展的作用无法得到充分发挥。

In the process of trade country's growth,The role of the import,Often under some degree of pressed or depressed,Because of the excessive growth of imports,Will offset the export scale of the role of the growth in the economy development,Which trade big country of export growth is mainly characterized by the expansion of net exports,Rather than a basic balance of import and export under the condition of export growth.In this guide,Import of national economic development role into full play.

　　掌控出口方式和进口方式的转变与国民经济发展方式的互动关系。国民经济发展的三驾马车在不同时期表现不同。改革开放初期，投资冲动一方面表现为盲目投资的扩张，即所谓的投资饥饿症，但另一方面也揭示出经济增长的基础动力；20世纪90年代以来，外需的扩张以及出口增长在拉动国民经济增长方面的业绩十分明显；2008年以来全球金融危机倒逼我国经济发展方式动力源的结构调整，转向以内需为主。

Export control mode and change the way of imports and the interaction between national economic development way.Development of national economy troika performance is different in different periods.The early reform and opening up,On the one hand, performance for the expansion of the blind investment. Investment impulse,The so-called JiEZheng investment,But on the other hand also reveals the basis of economic growth momentum;Since the 1990 s,External demand expansion and export growth in stimulating national economic growth performance obviously;Since 2008 the global financial crisis reversed transmission pattern of economic development in our country power structure adjustment,To give priority to with domestic demand.

　　因此，外贸发展方式转变的两个重要层面，即不论是出口方式的转变还是进口方式的转变，都必须适应新形势下国民经济发展方式转变的内在要求。

so,The two important aspects of foreign trade development mode change,Namely whether change the way of changing the way of export or import,Must adapt to the new situation, the requirement of national economic development mode shift.

　　从本质上看，出口与进口对我国走向贸易强国的贡献不同，前者更具有贸易大国的阶段性特征，后者更具有贸易强国的阶段性特征。前者对于国民经济的规模增长具有重大意义，后者则对于国民经济的质量增长具有重要意义。进口的发展内在于国民经济发展方式的转变，进口的增长适应了我国在新的全球经济形势下国民经济发展方式的基础特征。

In essence,Export and import different contribution to our country to trading powers,The former has more phased characteristics of the trade power,The latter has more trading powers stage characteristics.The former is of great significance for the scale of the national economy growth,The latter is of great significance for the quality of the national economy growth.Change the way of imports is inherent to the development of national economic development,Adapt to the growth of imports of China's national economy under the new global economy development mode of basic characteristics.

　　(作者系中国社科院财经战略研究院国际贸易与投资研究室主任、研究员、博导) 

(The author is strategic research institute of finance and economics at the Chinese academy of international trade and investment research director/researcher/With concurrent)