刘宇

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　　当前全球经济放缓和贸易保护加剧，将使国际贸易陷入低迷态势。诸多贸易先行指标如出口商信心指数、国际航运市场和大宗商品价格走势已表明，贸易增长不容乐观。IMF预测2013年全球贸易增长率为4.5%，发达国家和发展中国家出口分别增长3.6%和5.7%，进口分别增长3.3%和6.6%。伴随经济的复苏，各经济体的贸易保护措施不但没有减少，反而迅速增加，非常规贸易措施的撤销速度也有所放缓。与贸易数量相比，更加值得关注的是，保护主义出现了新的趋势，贸易救济手段已经呈现出更加复杂和难以监控的特点。贸易摩擦形式不断翻新，涉及产业不断增多。因此，2013年全球贸易增长不容乐观。

The current slowdown in the global economy and the trade protection,Will make the downturn situation of international trade.Many trade confidence index forward-looking indicators such as exporters/International shipping market and commodity prices has showed,Trade growth is not optimistic.The IMF predicts global trade growth rate of 4.5% in 2013,Developed countries and developing countries export growth of 3.6% and 3.6% respectively,Imports grew by 3.3% and 3.3% respectively.Along with the economic recovery,The economies of trade protection measures not only failed to reduce,Instead, a rapid increase,The cancellation of the unconventional trade measures in speed is also slow.Compared with the trade volume,Even more worthy of attention,Protectionism is a new trend,Trade remedy measures have been presented the characteristics of the more complicated and difficult to monitor.Trade friction form appeared unceasingly,Involving industry growing.so,Global trade growth in 2013 is not optimistic.

　　可以看到，全球经济的复苏并没有阻止贸易保护主义的蔓延。经济复苏以来快速增长的贸易保护措施表明，全球经济复苏并没有像人们期望的那样——限制了世界贸易保护主义的扩散和延续，相反，全球贸易保护似有愈演愈烈之势。根据WTO最新统计，2011年5～10月，各国政府共出台了155项新贸易限制措施，影响到G20国家货物进口额的0.5%、全球进口额的0.6%。而2011年10月至2012年5月的7个月，各国政府出台的贸易限制措施增加到182项，影响到G20国家货物进口额的1.1%、全球进口额的0.9%。可见，无论是新实施措施的数量，还是影响的贸易量都在显著上升。此外，一个重要的转变是，这一波贸易保护浪潮看起来并不像是为对抗危机而出台的短期政策，更像是长期措施，贸易保护的潜在驱动因素发生了根本的变化。因此，未来一段时间，全球仍将面临保护主义措施的负面影响。

You can see,The global economic recovery has not stopped the spread of trade protectionism.Economic recovery since the rapid growth of trade protection measures,The global economic recovery as expected -- and no restrictions have been the spread of trade protectionism and the continuation of the world,instead,Global trade protection have intensified trend.According to the latest statistics,From may to October in 2011,Governments introduced a total of 155 new trade restrictions,Affect the G20 imports 0.5% of the goods/0.6% of the world's imports.But in October 2011 to May 2012 in 7 months,Governments increased to 182 items of trade restrictions,Affect the G20 imports 1.1% of the goods/0.9% of the world's imports.visible,Whether the number of new measures,The volume of trade or impact are rising significantly.In addition,An important shift is,The wave of a wave of protectionism does not look like a short-term policy for against the crisis,More like a long-term measures,Trade protection of the underlying fundamental changes have taken place in the drivers.so,The future for a period of time,World still face the negative impact of protectionist measures.

　　与以往不同，G20部分国家正在成为全球贸易保护措施的主导者。虽然每届G20峰会的与会各方都宣称坚定支持开放的贸易和投资，抵制各种形式的贸易保护主义，但保护主义的浪潮似乎愈加泛滥，承诺能否化为行动让人怀疑。全球贸易预警（GTA）最新报告统计，2009年G20国家实施的贸易保护措施占全球贸易保护措施的比重为60%,而截至2012年6月该比重上升到79%，也就是说，平均每10起贸易保护就有8起是由G20国家发起的。可见，G20国家更青睐于采用贸易保护措施保护本国经济。另外，G20取消贸易限制措施的速度也在放缓。2008年10月以来，G20国家出台的802项贸易限制或潜在限制措施中，仅有18%被取消，而上次报告被取消的比重为19%。因此，这表明G20国家已经取代发展中国家成为全球贸易保护措施的主要实施者。

Unlike in the past,The G20 countries is becoming a key player in the global trade protection measures.Although each session of the G20 summit participants have claimed that firm support for open trade and investment,Resist all forms of trade protectionism,But the wave of protectionism seems increasingly rampant,Can promise into action is in doubt.Global trade alert(GTA)A new report statistics,The G20 countries implement trade protection measures in 2009 accounted for 60% of global trade protection measures,And by 2012 the proportion rose to 79% in June,That is to say,Every 10 trade protection has eight is initiated by the G20 countries.visible,The G20 countries prefer using trade protection measures to protect their economies.In addition,The G20 to cancel trade restrictions speed is slow.Since October 2008,The G20's 802 trade restrictions or potential restrictions,Only 18% were canceled,And the proportion of the last report was cancelled was 19%.so,This suggests that the G20 countries has replaced the developing countries become the main implementer of global trade protection measures.

　　贸易保护的领域由传统的战略型产业向金融、高新技术和新能源等行业延伸。一般来说，贸易保护主要集中在大宗商品和战略性产业，但是近年来，贸易保护有向金融、高新技术和新能源等行业蔓延的趋势。如在金融领域，美国对想在其国内设立子公司的外国银行设置非常高的进入成本。高技术产业是国际市场竞争的重要领域，也是当前贸易保护的重点对象，近期，欧盟委员会对我国中兴通讯和华为科技展开调查，威胁称若发现得到中国政府补贴将对其予以处罚。同样，这两家企业也受到澳大利亚和美国的禁止和指控。2012年以来，新能源领域的贸易保护也非常严重。美国和欧盟纷纷对我国光伏产业发起反倾销调查。同时，一些发展中国家如印度也开始针对我国的太阳能组件展开反倾销调查。

In the areas of trade protection from the traditional into the financial strategic industry/High and new technology and new energy industries.In general,Trade protection mainly concentrated in the commodity and strategic industries,But in recent years,Have to financial trade protection/The spread of high and new technology and new energy industries.As in the financial sector,The United States to want to set up subsidiaries of foreign Banks in the domestic setting very high entry costs.High technology industry is one of the important areas of international competition in the market,And also a key object of trade protection,The recent,The European commission to investigate zte and huawei in China science and technology,Threatened that the Chinese government subsidies will be punished.The same,The two companies have also been to Australia and the United States prohibition and charges.Since 2012,Trade protection in the field of new energy is also very serious.The United States and the European Union to anti-dumping investigations into photovoltaic industry in our country.At the same time,Some developing countries such as India also began to solar module launched anti-dumping investigations against China.

　　贸易保护措施变得更加复杂且难以量化。除了贸易保护的数量之外，贸易保护措施也呈现出更加复杂且难以监控的特点。第一，修改贸易防御体系。一个最新的案例是，欧盟正在修改其贸易防御体系，计划绕过企业申请直接发起调查。2012年初，法国成立了11个委员会，对其国内包括航空航天、科技、可再生能源等在内的核心产业进行监督，在这些领域不欢迎并购。意大利也于近期开始效仿法国的做法。第二，针对出口管制的限制，欧美日对中国稀土的诉讼，也是一个争端方向转变的典型案例。过去的案例往往是指责一个国家过多向他国出口，冲击了他国的产业，然而现在，战略资源的博弈引发对出口管制的争议。此外，很多政策涉及许可证或监管的变化，而不是反倾销、反补贴等容易衡量的措施。

Trade protection measures become more complicated and hard to quantify.In addition to the number of trade protection,Trade protection measures are also presented the characteristics of the more complicated and difficult to monitor.The first,Modified trade defense system.Is a new case,The eu is to modify its trade defence system,Plans to bypass launched an investigation into enterprise application directly.At the beginning of 2012,Set up 11 committee in France,The domestic including aerospace/Science and technology/Renewable energy sources, such as core industry,In mergers and acquisitions are not welcome in these areas.Italy also began to follow the practice in the near future.In the second,In view of the export control restrictions,Europe and the United States to China's rare earth of litigation,Direction of typical case is a dispute.Case in the past often is blamed for more death and a country exports to other countries,Impact the other industries,Now, however,,Strategic resources in the game caused controversy on export control.In addition,A lot of policies relating to the license or regulatory changes,Instead of anti-dumping/Countervailing measures of easy to measure, etc.

　　（作者系国家信息中心经济预测部副研究员）

(The author is deputy researcher of state information center, economic forecasts)