汇丰银行在27日发布的贸易展望报告中预计，由于宽松政策的推动，新兴市场经济体增速将显著上升，并驱动全球贸易反弹。在国内需求上升的情况下，新兴市场间贸易（即“南南贸易”）的重要性将提升。

HSBC trade outlook report released on the 27th in the estimates,Because of the push of the policy easing,Emerging market economies growth will rise significantly,And drive a rebound in global trade.Under the condition of the domestic demand,Trade between emerging markets(That is"South-south trade")The importance of will improve.

　　对于中国而言，报告预测，随着国内工资上涨，中国的出口将转向高附加值板块，预计未来中国整体出口增长中的一半将来自工业机械和信息通讯装备（ICT）板块。

For China,The report predicts,As domestic wages rise,China's exports will shift to higher value-added sectors,In the next half of China's overall export growth will come from the industrial machinery and information and communication equipment(ICT)plate.

　　中国出口向高附加值行业转移

China's exports shift to higher value-added sectors

　　汇丰预计，未来在亚洲新兴经济体中，中国、印度、越南的出口增长将最为强劲，预计2013-2020年间的年增长率均将达到两位数。由于上述经济体将更加富裕，国内需求上升，新兴市场间的贸易将更为重要。

HSBC is expected to,The future in Asia's emerging economies,China/India/Vietnam's export growth will be the strongest,Annual rate of growth between 2013 and 2020 are expected to reach double digits.Because these economies will be more rich,Domestic demand,Trade between emerging markets will be more important.

　　就中国经济而言，汇丰认为中国的出口正逐步向高附加值行业转移，预计工业机械和信息通信设备（ICT）将是未来十多年推动中国出口增长的主要行业板块。到2030年，工业机械将成为中国最大的出口行业，占总出口的三分之一，信息通信设备业紧随其后。预计上述两大行业的出口额未来将占到中国整体出口增长的一半。

In terms of China's economy,HSBC argues that China's exports are gradually shift to higher value-added sectors,Industrial machinery and information communication equipment is expected(ICT)Will be in the next 10 years of major industry groups to promote the growth of China's exports.By 2030,Industrial machinery will become China's largest export industry,Accounts for a third of the total exports,Followed by information and communications equipment industry.These two industry exports the future is expected to account for half of China's overall export growth.

　　除工业机械和信息通信设备外，化工产品和建筑产品在中国出口中的份额也将逐步增长。与此同时，由于竞争力优势逐步丧失，纺织和木材制品在中国整体出口增长中的贡献率将逐步下降。

In addition to the industrial machinery and information and communications equipment,Chemical products and building products in China's export share will also gradually increase.At the same time,Due to the loss of competitive advantage gradually,Textiles and wood products in the contribution rate of China's overall export growth will decline gradually.

　　从贸易伙伴来看，由于发达市场需求前景依然不太乐观，新兴市场将是中国出口增长最快的地区。其中，越南和印度将是中国产品出口增长最快的市场，到2030年之前平均年增速将达到14%-15%。

From the trading partner,Due to the developed market demand outlook is still not optimistic,Emerging markets will be the country's fastest export growth areas.Among them,Vietnam and India will be the fastest growing economy in the export of Chinese products,By 2030 the average annual growth rate will reach 14% 15%.

　　汇丰银行（中国）有限公司工商金融服务部总经理何舜华表示，经济结构转型、劳动力成本上升和外部需求转变等都是推动中国的出口向价值链上游转移的原因。这一转变的过程虽然不乏挑战，但最终将进一步巩固中国在全球贸易中的影响力。参与国际贸易的企业应抓住转变的机遇，提升产品的附加值和竞争力，在全球贸易中争取更高的份额。

The HSBC bank(China)Co., LTD., general manager of industrial and commercial financial services He Shunhua said,Economic structure transformation/Rising labor costs and external demand is driving China's exports of moving up the value chain.This transformation process and the challenge,But in the end, will further strengthen China's influence in the global trade.Participate in the international trade enterprises should catch the opportunity of change,Improve the added value of products and competitiveness,In the push for a higher share of global trade.

　　发达市场需提高专业化程度

Developed markets to increase the degree of specialization

　　汇丰报告认为，新兴市场出口贸易的变动趋势将促使发达市场在更高端和更专业的领域寻求增长点。发达经济体目前的主要贸易对象仍是其他发达市场，但其对新兴市场的出口份额将增长。面对来自新兴市场低成本生产商的竞争，发达经济体的出口将更关注高科技等依然具有竞争优势的板块。

HSBC according to the report,Emerging market change trend of the export trade will lead to developed markets in the field for more high-end and professional growth.Developed economies at present is still the main trading partners in other developed markets,But its share of exports to growth in emerging markets.In the face of competition from low-cost producers in emerging market,Exports in developed economies will be more focused on high-tech, etc have a competitive edge plates.

　　汇丰预计，美国高附加值产品的出口将继续强劲，且出口增长越来越倚重于迅速发展的新兴市场。在2021年到2030年期间，美国的工业机械、交通设备和科学仪器等三大高附加值行业将占其出口增长的一半左右，其对亚洲（除日本外）经济体的出口年增速将达到9%。

HSBC is expected to,The United States exports of high value-added products will continue to be strong,And increasingly rely on export growth to the rapid development of emerging markets.During the period of 2021 to 2030,America's industrial machinery/Transportation equipment and scientific instruments, such as high value-added industries will account for about half of its export growth,Its in Asia(Outside of Japan)Economy's export growth will reach 9%.

　　欧洲出口国同样需要进一步寻找新的、高增长的市场。其中，德国将为处于工业化进程中的经济体提供机械和科技产品；法国的航空航天和国防工业是前景最乐观的出口板块；未来三年，预计英国对亚洲的商品出口年增速将达到9%，是其对欧洲大陆出口增速的两倍多，到2030年前，工业机械和交通运输设备两大板块的出口将占到英国整体商品出口的一半，化学、医药也将成为英国重要的出口行业。

European exporters also need further searching for new/High growth of the market.Among them,Germany will provide machinery for economy in the process of industrialization and technology products;French aerospace and defense industry sector is the most optimistic outlook for exports;The next three years,In Britain for Asia's commodity exports growth is expected to reach 9%,Is more than twice its mainland export growth to Europe,To 2030 years ago,Industrial machinery and transportation equipment two plates of exports will be half of the nation's overall exports,chemical/Medicine will also become the important export industry.

　　汇丰全球贸易融资主管詹姆斯·恩默特认为，发展中国家工业化的迅速进展、工资水平的上升以及消费需求的日渐成熟，正在推动全球贸易出现各种类型的增长。 .

HSBC's global trade finance director James, think,Rapid progress of industrialization in developing countries/Rising wage levels and consumer demand increasingly mature,Is driving the global trade in various kinds of growth. .