印度政府2月28日公布2013-2014财年预算。据路透社报道，在经济下滑和减少财政赤字呼声渐大的双重压力下，印度财政部长齐丹巴兰宣布，将财政赤字占GDP的比例从2012-2013财年的5.2%降低至4.8%。不过，由于印度近期采取的紧缩政策令决策层“获得部分缓冲空间”，印度政府认为“巩固财政不仅依靠削减开支”，因此新财年的预算支出将增加16%至3090亿美元，超出此前预期。

The Indian government on February 28, 2013-2014 fiscal year budget.According to Reuters,During an economic downturn and to reduce the fiscal deficit for a big under double pressures,India's finance minister, palaniappan chidambaram, has announced,The budget deficit as a share of GDP from 5.2% reduce to 4.8% for the fiscal year 2012-2013.but,Since India by the tightening measures in recent to policymakers"Get some buffer space",The Indian government that"Fiscal consolidation is not only rely on spending cuts",So the new fiscal year's budget spending will increase by 16% to $309 billion,Than previously expected.

　　经常项目赤字成隐忧

Current account deficit into concern

　　在过去几个月，印度经济增速有所放缓，制造业与服务业增速放缓是主要原因。与此同时，全球经济前景不明朗也打击了印度出口，加剧了经济增长放缓的趋势。印度统计办公室本月初将印度截至2013年3月31日财年经济增长率预期调降至5%，这一增速创下近10年以来的最低水平。

In the past few months,India's economic growth slowed,Manufacturing and services growth is slowing are the main reasons.At the same time,Global economic outlook uncertain also hit India exports,Contributed to the trend of slowing economic growth.Statistics office in India earlier this month to India in the year to March 31 2013 economic growth forecast to 5%,This growth to its lowest level in nearly 10 years.

　　而印度政府正努力恢复市场对这一亚洲第三大经济体的信心。齐丹巴兰在公布2013-2014财年预算案时指出，印度想要回到潜在经济增长率8%的时代面临挑战，但更大的担忧是经常项目赤字。

The Indian government is trying to restore market confidence in the Asia's third-largest economy.Palaniappan chidambaram, published in 2013-2014 fiscal year budget,India wants to return to potential growth 8% face challenges,But the bigger worry is that the current-account deficit.

　　去年，国际评级机构标准普尔和惠誉都警告称，财政和贸易赤字伤及印度的投资评级。最新数据显示，印度经常项目赤字在去年12月第四季度继续扩大。在截至去年9月3日的前三个季度中，印度经常项目赤字已经达到223.1亿美元的高位。

Last year,,International credit rating agency standard & poor's and fitch ratings warned,Fiscal and trade deficits hurt India's investment rating.According to the latest figures,India's current-account deficit in December last year continued to expand in the fourth quarter.On September 3 in the first three quarters,India's current-account deficit has reached a high of $22.31 billion.

　　一直以来，印度将黄金和原油进口视为该国经常项目赤字不断走高的罪魁祸首，印度人尤其喜欢用黄金来对冲通胀风险。印度央行此前称，印度约有80%的经常项目赤字是黄金进口所致。为此，印度政府把降低赤字的重点放在抑制黄金需求上。今年1月21日，为遏制经常项目赤字继续增长，印度政府宣布将黄金进口关税从之前的4%上调至6%。近期还有消息称，印度政府可能将进口关税进一步上调至8%。印度央行2月初还表示，为了遏制印度处于历史高位的经常项目赤字，在极端情况下，将考虑向银行施加黄金进口价值和数量限制，银行黄金进口占印度黄金总进口量的60%。

Has always been,India will gold and crude oil imports as the country's current-account deficit rising the culprit,Indians, in particular, like to use gold as a hedge against inflation.India's central bank said earlier,India imports about 80% of the current-account deficit is gold.To do this,The government put the focus of deficit reduction on inhibition of gold demand.January 21 this year,To curb the current-account deficit continues to grow,India's government announced it would gold imports tariffs from 4% to 6%.Recent sources said,India's government is likely to further raise import tariffs to 8%.India's central bank also said in early February,In order to curb India's historically high current-account deficit,In extreme cases,Will consider gold import value and quantity restrictions to the bank,Bank gold imports account for 60% of India's total gold imports.

　　齐丹巴兰在新公布的预算案中还指出，今明两年，印度将需要750亿美元以上的资金来填补赤字，这一资金将来自外国投资以及外部商业借款。不过，要实现这一目标显然并不容易。最新的官方数据显示，从去年4月到12月，印度外商直接投资同比下降42%。

Palaniappan chidambaram, published in the new budget also pointed out,This year,India will need more than $75 billion of the money to fill the deficit,This funding will come from foreign investment and the external business borrowing.but,It's not easy to clearly to achieve this goal.The latest official figures show,From April to December last year,India's foreign direct investment fell 42% year on year.

　　通胀率抑制降息空间

Inflation curb cuts

　　在庞大的经常项目赤字危及印度宏观经济稳定的同时，消费者物价指数也一直徘徊在两位数的水平。此次公布的预算案体现高借款及高支出特征，分析人士指出，预算可能将继续推高通胀，而印度央行可能考虑放缓货币宽松的步伐。

In the huge current-account deficits threaten India's macroeconomic stability at the same time,The consumer price index has been hovering in the double digits.The announced budget reflects the characteristics of high borrowing and spending,Analysts pointed out that,The budget is likely to continue to push up inflation,India's central bank may consider slowing the pace of monetary easing.

　　为显示改变市场预期、刺激经济增长的决心，印度央行1月29日打响亚洲降息第一枪，宣布下调回购利率25个基点至7.75%，同时下调存款准备金率25个基点至4%。这是印度央行自去年4月份降息后9个月来首次降息。

To show the change of market expectations/Determination to stimulate economic growth,India's central bank began on January 29, cut interest rates in Asia the first shot,Cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.75%,At the same time lower the deposit reserve rate by 25 basis points to 4%.This is India's central bank cut interest rates since last April after 9 months to cut interest rates for the first time.

　　不过，印度央行同期发布的货币政策报告中已经指出，在通胀率、经常项目赤字和财政赤字高企的情形下，央行运用货币政策刺激经济的空间有限。分析称，印度央行很难在1月份减息的基础上进一步放松货币政策。印度央行行长苏巴拉奥也暗示，尽管印度经济增速已降至10年来最低，但该国通胀率持续高企，限制了央行通过降息来刺激经济增长的空间

but,India's central bank monetary policy report, released in the same period have been pointed out,The inflation rate/Current account deficit and high fiscal deficit situation,Space is limited to the central bank to use monetary policy to stimulate the economy.Analysts say,The reserve bank of India is difficult to cut interest rates in January on the basis of further easing of monetary policy.India's central bank governor, Mr Subbarao is also suggested,Despite India's economic growth has fallen to the lowest in a decade,But the country's inflation rate remained high,Limit the central bank to cut interest rates to stimulate economic growth