3月13日，美国商务部公布数据显示，美国2月零售销售月率上升1.1%，创7个月内的最大升幅。此外，美国劳工部的数据显示今年2月美国非农部门失业率降至7.7%，为2008年12月以来最好水平。这也使得市场对于美联储宽松货币政策的退出预期再次上升。昨日，多名经济学家在接受商报记者采访时说，美国年前退出量化宽松政策的可能性不大，量化宽松政策的退出会对中国外贸和制造业有一定影响。

On March 13,,The U.S. Commerce Department data showed,The United States February retail sales in March rose by 1.1%,And the biggest rise in seven months.In addition,The U.S. labor department data showed U.S. non-farm sector in February the unemployment rate fell to 7.7%,To the best level since December 2008.It also makes the market for the fed's looser monetary policy exit is expected to rise again.yesterday,Several economists told commercial daily reporter in an interview,The United States years ago out of quantitative easing is unlikely,Quantitative easing will exit of China's foreign trade and manufacturing industry have a certain influence.

　　年前退出可能性小

Years ago out of possibility

　　美国劳工部于3月8日公布的数据显示，今年2月份美国非农业部门失业率降至7.7%，为2008年12月以来最好水平。美联储议息会议纪要暗示第三轮量化宽松货币政策（简称QE3）有可能提前结束。。

The U.S. department of labor according to data released on March 8,This year the United States department of non-agricultural unemployment rate fell to 7.7% in February,To the best level since December 2008.The fed's policy-setting meeting minutes suggested that a third round of quantitative easing monetary policy(Hereinafter referred to as QE3)Are likely to end in advance..

　　“美国今年年底前退出量化宽松货币政策的可能性非常小。”昨日，资深外汇研究人士汤亚键在接受商报记者采访时表示，美国联邦公开市场委员会在短期难以达成提前退出量化宽松政策的共识。目前，美国国内对此有很多杂音，这些杂音将为美国退出量化货币政策有造势作用，预计明年美国可能会开始逐步退出该政策。

"The United States by the end of the year out of the possibility of quantitative easing monetary policy are very small."yesterday,Senior foreign researchers Shang Ya keys said in an interview with business newspaper reporters,The federal open market committee in the short term is difficult to reach a consensus on exit the quantitative easing policy in advance.At present,In the United States have a lot of noise,The noise will exit the quantitative monetary policy have promote role in the United States,Expects the U.S. could begin to gradually withdraw from the policy.

　　“美联储未来停止QE3是大的方向，但目前看来至少2013年上半年不会发生。”广东省社会科学综合开发研究中心主任黎友焕在接受商报记者采访时也认为，因为从美联储最为关心的失业率来看，此前美联储曾经把宽松政策很明确地和失业率目标6.5%挂钩，今年2月美国失业率为7.7%，距离6.5%还有1个多百分点，此时停止量化宽松政策不现实。但QE3一定会退出，但今年上半年应该不会，下半年或有可能。原因是美国收手的关键在于是否符合它的利益最大化，目前还没有到此阶段。

"The federal reserve stopped QE3 is a big direction in the future,But for now at least the first half of 2013 will not happen."Guangdong province social science comprehensive development research center director li youhuan in commercial daily reporter interview also think,Because from the federal reserve is most concerned about unemployment,Once put after the fed's easing clearly and unemployment target 6.5% peg,The U.S. unemployment rate of 7.7% in February,There is a full percentage point from 6.5%,Stop qe unrealistic at this time.QE3 will exit,But in the first half of this year should not be,In the second half, or likely.Is the key reason is the stop in conform to maximize its interests,There is currently no at this stage.

　　什么才是美国利益最大化的标志？黎友焕解释，全球的货币战争目前已经到了几乎全线货币宽松的阶段，发展中国家力图维持国际市场份额，发达国家力图维持国际竞争优势。而美国收手的时机，就在英国、欧元区和日本的更加宽松货币政策全部出台，并产生明显的后果之后。

What is a sign of America's interests maximize?Li youhuan explain,Now the global currency war is in the monetary easing almost all of the stages,Developing countries sought to maintain the international market share,Developed countries try to maintain the international competitive advantage.And the stop time,Just in the UK/The euro zone and Japan all looser monetary policy,And have obvious consequences.

　　上半年我国出口向好

Positive in the first half of China's exports

　　美国实行的量化宽松政策在失业率方面挽救了持续下滑的美国经济，在给中国带来持续通胀压力的同时，也带动了中国出口的海外市场需求。中国海关总署公布的数据显示，2月份中国出口总额达8751.2亿元，同比增长21.8%；进口7789.7亿元，下降15.2%，数据显示好于市场预期。

United States quantitative easing in the unemployment rate has saved the declining U.S. economy,At the same time of bring continued inflationary pressures to China,Also led to China's export demand in overseas markets.According to data released by the general administration of customs of China,China's exports in February of 875.12 billion yuan,Up 21.8% from a year earlier;Imports of 778.97 billion yuan,Dropped by 15.2%,Data showed better than market expectations.

　　商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院研究员梅新育对重庆商报记者表示，今年我国贸易伙伴的经济水平与去年相比有明显的回升，使其对我国的需求有了明显的增长。

The ministry of commerce international trade and economic cooperation research institute researcher mei xinyu, to chongqing commercial daily reporter said,The economic level of China's trading partners this year compared with last year had obvious picks up,Make it has a obvious increase of demand to our country.

　　“我国的宏观经济稳定性比较好，通货膨胀和资产泡沫表现的并不是很明显，但是其他的发展中国家压力暴露的非常明显。在这种情况下，美国已经开始认真讨论退出量化宽松政策。一旦美国退出QE3，资本流动方向的变动很有可能对新兴市场经济体造成重创。届时，将对我们的出口也会产生一定的负面影响。”梅新育说。从目前的情况看来，今年上半年我国出口将进一步向好，但是下半年出口形势并不明朗。

"China's macroeconomic stability is better,Inflation and asset bubbles performance is not obvious,But the rest of the developing countries stress exposed very obvious.In this case,America has got down to debating exit from quantitative easing.Once the exit QE3,Capital flows in the direction of change is likely to be hit on emerging market economies.When the,To our exports will produce certain negative effects."Mei xinyu, said.From the current situation looks,In the first half of this year China's exports will be better,But in the second half of the sales situation is not clear.

　　中投顾问宏观经济研究员白朋鸣说，以往国内的外贸企业只是受到来自各国的“双反”制裁就已经被逼到了角落，现在再加上美国退出量化宽松政策后造成的影响，外贸企业真正的“难关”还在后面，“在国际经济下行期间，中国应该大力扩大内需，以缓解美元贬值带来的出口压力。”

Macroeconomic researcher Bai Pengming said cic advisory,Previous domestic foreign trade enterprise is from all over the world"Double inverse"Sanctions have been forced into a corner,Plus the United States now retired from quantitative easing,The real foreign trade enterprises"The difficulties"Is yet to come,"During the international economic downturn,China should vigorously expand domestic demand,To ease the pressure for exports in dollar."

　　新闻纵深

Depth of the news

　　应警惕国际炒家

Should guard against international speculators

　　“量化宽松的退出，不仅会影响全球热钱的流动方向，而且也会影响全球大宗商品的价格变化。这才是今年国际市场最大的风险。”中国社科院金融研究所研究员易宪容在接受商报记者采访时说，如果美国退出量化宽松，就意味着国际市场热钱流动的方向发生根本性变化，从而使得资金流出市场的资产价格全面震荡，意味着国际贸易中的定价基础出现重大调整，以美元计价的商品价格将会全面下跌，这对全球经济将会产生不利影响。当市场猜测美国可能提前退出量化宽松时，世界各国股市、债市、汇市立即反应十分强烈，市场产生了巨大震荡：大宗商品的价格全面下跌、国际市场的资金纷纷回流到美国金融资产中。美国退出量化宽松更是为国际炒家提供更多炒作的机会。易宪容提醒说，政府与投资者需要对此保持警惕。

"Quantitative easing (qe) exit,Not only affects the flow of hot money around the world,But also will affect the price of global commodities.This is the biggest risk, the international market this year."Yi xianrong, a researcher with Chinese academy of social sciences financial institute told commercial daily reporter in an interview,If the U.S. withdrew from quantitative easing,Means that fundamental changes in international hot money flows in the direction of the market,Making money out of the market of asset price shocks in an all-round way,A significant adjustment in basis means that the pricing in the international trade,Dollar-denominated commodity prices will fall across the board,This will impact on the global economy.When the market suspected U.S. withdrawal from the quantitative easing (qe) in advance,Countries around the world stock market/The bond market/A very strong currency reaction immediately,Market has a huge shock:Commodity prices fell across the board/In the international market funding back into the financial assets in the United States.The exit of quantitative easing, is for the international speculators provide more opportunity to hype.Yi xianrong, a reminding that,The government and investors need to remain vigilant.

　　不会造成长远影响

Will not result in a far-reaching impact

　　“量化宽松政策的退出带来的影响只是短期内的，不会给中美贸易带来长远影响。”商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院国际市场研究部副主任白明在接受商报记者采访时，近年来，美国经常在宽松与紧缩之间摆动，但中美贸易数据一直保持在比较稳定的范围内。白明说，一个值得关注的现象是，现在美国正在向制造业实体经济转型。比如苹果公司的生产线开始向美国本土回流，富士康也计划在美国建厂。以前美国的制造业主要依靠海外市场，其中以中国为主要市场，但目前的趋势是，中国这一优势正在逐渐消失殆尽。

"Quantitative easing withdrawal effects only in the short term,Will not bring far-reaching impact to the us-china trade."The ministry of commerce international trade and economic cooperation research institute research bai, deputy director of the international market in an interview with commercial daily reporter,In recent years,The United States often swing between the loose and tight,But trade data of China and the United States has been in a stable range.Bai said,Is a notable phenomenon,Now the United States is to manufacturing entity economic transformation.Such as apple's production began to return to the United States,Foxconn also plans to build factories in the United States.Before the U.S. manufacturing sector mainly rely on overseas markets,With China as the main market,But the current trend is,China, the advantage is gradually disappear.