净出口贡献率只有统计意义，没有经济意义

净export贡献率只有统计意义,Does not make economic sense

　　随着外贸进出口更加平衡，净出口贡献率降低或为负，或将在未来几年成为常态

Along with the foreign trade进export更加平衡,Net export contribution rate reduced or negative,Or will become the norm in the coming years

　　国家统计局数据显示，2012年我国国内生产总值（GDP）为51.93万亿元，比上年增加4.78万亿元。其中，消费对GDP增长的贡献率为51.8％，投资贡献率为50.4％，净出口贡献率为-2.2％。

国家统计局数据显示,China's gross domestic product (Gross domestic product) in 2012(Gross domestic product)Is 51.93 trillion yuan,A year-on-year increase of 4.78 trillion yuan.Among them,The contribution rate of consumption to Gross domestic product growth of 51.8%,Investment accounted for 50.4%,Net exports accounted for 2.2%.

　　一些人认为，净出口贡献率为负，意味着外贸对经济增长的贡献是负的，外贸拖了经济增长的后腿。这种看法对吗？

一些人认为,Net export contribution rate is negative,Means that the contribution of foreign trade on economic growth is negative,A drag on economic growth of foreign trade.This view right?

　　根据经济学理论，一国国内生产总值（GDP）可分解为总投资、总消费和净出口（包括货物出口及服务出口）三个部分。净出口是指出口额与进口额之差，净出口对经济增长的贡献率是指净出口增量与GDP增量之比，即：净出口对GDP增长的贡献率=净出口增量/GDP增量×100%。

根据经济学理论,A country's gross domestic product (Gross domestic product)(Gross domestic product)Can be decomposed into the total investment/Total consumption and net exports(Including the goods export and service export)Three parts.Net exports "refers to the difference between the exports and imports,Net export contribution rate to economic growth refers to the ratio of incremental net exports to Gross domestic product growth,That is:The contribution of net exports to Gross domestic product growth increment/Gross domestic product increment x = net exports 100%.

　　北京大学国家发展研究院副教授余淼杰认为，净出口贡献率为负，只是说明当年的净出口增量（即贸易顺差）少于上年。这与经济增长的相关性十分微弱。

北京大学国家发展研究院副教授余淼杰认为,Net export contribution rate is negative,Just shows that net exports(The trade surplus)Less than a year.The correlation between it and economic growth is very weak.

　　据国家统计局数据，2008年至2012年我国净出口对经济增长的贡献率最高为9%，最低为-44.8%，而GDP增速均超过7%。净出口贡献率的大幅波动，并未造成我国经济增速的大幅波动。

据国家统计局数据,From 2008 to 2012, net exports on economic growth in China has contributed up to 9%,A minimum of 44.8%,And Gross domestic product growth has exceeded 7%.Net export contribution rate fluctuations,Did not cause big swings in economic growth in China.

　　净出口贡献率的波动，只是与我国对外贸易的走势密切相关。

净export贡献率的波动,Is closely related to the shape of the our country foreign trade.

　　2008年，我国出口居历史高位，进口增速相对较慢，净出口对经济增长的贡献率达9%。2009年，国际金融危机蔓延，外需疲软，当年贸易顺差大大小于2008年，净出口贡献率降为-44.8%。2010年，全球经济开始好转，我国出口回暖。由于2009年净出口处于历史低位，当年净出口贡献率达到7.9%。2011年虽然出口形势总体平稳，但因进口回升很快，当年净出口贡献率为-5.8%。2012年净出口贡献率为-2.2%。

2008年,Our country export the historically high levels,Import growth is relatively slow,Net exports contributed 9% of economic growth.In 2009,,International financial contagion,Weak external demand,The trade surplus is greatly less than in 2008,Net export contribution rate reduced to 44.8%.In 2010,,The global economy began to improve,China's export recovery.Since 2009, net exports at historically low levels,That net exports contributed up to 7.9%.In 2011 while exports stable overall situation,But because import picks up soon,When net exports accounted for 5.8%.In 2012 net exports accounted for 2.2%.

　　“净出口对经济增长的贡献率这一概念只有统计意义，没有经济意义。净出口对GDP的贡献率为负，并不表明对外贸易拖了经济增长的后腿。”商务部有关负责人表示。

"The concept of net export contribution rate to economic growth only statistical significance,Does not make economic sense.The contribution rate of net exports to Gross domestic product is negative,Doesn't mean haul up the economic growth of foreign trade."The ministry of commerce officials said.

　　这位负责人认为，发展开放型经济是推动我国经济发展和产业升级的引擎，我国对外贸易已经发展到出口和进口并重的新阶段。今后，随着进出口更加平衡，外贸顺差将进一步减少，净出口贡献率降低或为负，或将在未来几年成为常态。

这位负责人认为,The open economy development is to promote China's economic development and industrial upgrading of the engine,China's foreign trade has developed into a new stage of export and import and.In the future,As the import and export more balanced,Trade surplus will be further reduced,Net export contribution rate reduced or negative,Or will become the norm in the coming years.

　　外贸仍发挥着不可替代的重要作用

外贸仍发挥着不可替代的重要作用

　　外贸领域吸纳就业超过8000万人，每年大宗农产品进口相当于节约了5亿亩耕地

外贸领域吸纳就业超过8000万人,Commodities imported each year equal to 500 million mu of arable land has been saved

　　商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院院长霍建国认为，净出口贡献率反映了消费、投资、净出口之间的数字变化关系，并不是指某类别经济增长含义上的实际贡献。实际上，消费、投资与出口、进口有密切的联系，出口固然直接增加国外对本国货物和服务的需求，进口也往往不是替代国内生产，而是提供了国内生产不了的商品和服务，与国内生产形成互补，促进国内产业发展。

商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院院长霍建国认为,Net export contribution rate reflects the consumption/investment/Digital change relation between net exports,I wasn't referring to a certain category meaning on the actual contribution of economic growth.In fact,consumption/Exports and investment,/Imports are closely linked,Export is directly increased the demand for domestic goods and services abroad,Tends not to replace imports of domestic production,But with the domestic production of goods and services,With the domestic production of complementary,Promote the development of domestic industry.

　　事实上，用净出口贡献率来衡量，会低估外贸对经济增长的贡献度：如果进口、出口贸易量很大，而实际顺差不大，大量的贸易活动带来的就业、服务等附加值，虽然对经济增长发挥了很大作用，但无法通过净出口贡献率这个指标来体现。

事实上,Measured by net export contribution rate,Will underestimate the contribution of foreign trade to economic growth:If the import/Export trade is very large,And the actual surplus is not big,A lot of trade activities of employment/Value added services, etc.,Although played a big role on economic growth,But can't through the net export contribution rate the indicators to reflect.

　　国务院发展研究中心对外经济部部长隆国强表示，各国通过对外贸易参与国际分工，能够发挥自身比较优势，提高资源配置效率，增加就业和居民收入，并促进产业结构升级。

国务院发展研究中心对外经济部部长隆国强表示,Countries to participate in the international division of labor through foreign trade,Can play its comparative advantage,Improve the efficiency of resource allocation,Increase the employment and income,And promote the upgrading of industrial structure.

　　从发达国家看，2000年—2011年，美国净出口对经济增长的贡献率平均为-11%。外贸拖累了美国经济吗？当然不是。恰恰相反，美国利用国际贸易，从中国等发展中国家大量进口劳动密集型产品和资源产品，每年为美国消费者节省了上千亿美元消费成本，降低了本国的通货膨胀率，并推动国内其他产业发展。20世纪中后期，亚洲四小龙的成功崛起，也印证了发展外贸的巨大作用。

从发达国家看,2000-2011,U.S. net exports contributed an average of 11% of economic growth.The foreign trade to drag down the U.S. economy?Of course not.On the contrary,The use of international trade,Imports from developing countries such as China a large number of labor-intensive products and resources,For U.S. consumers to save the cost of hundreds of billions of dollars every year,Reduced the country's inflation rate,And promote development of other domestic industry.In the 20th century later period,The success of the Asian tigers,Also confirm the important role of the development of foreign trade.

　　我国人口多、资源少、就业压力大、科技相对落后。发展对外贸易、参与国际产业分工，对我国经济发展起着不可替代的作用：一方面，出口使我国充分利用劳动力较为丰富的优势，参与国际竞争，促进经济增长；另一方面，进口缓解了我国面临的资源、技术约束，引进的国外先进技术设备和资源、能源，满足了国内生产需要。

我国人口多/Fewer resources/The employment pressure/Science and technology is relatively backward.The development of foreign trade/Participate in the international industrial division,Plays an irreplaceable role in the economic development of our country:On the one hand,Exports to make full use of the labor is relatively rich in our country,Participate in international competition,Promote economic growth;On the other hand,Import relieves the resources in our country faces/Technical constraints,Introduction of foreign advanced technology equipment and resources/energy,Meet domestic production needs.

　　据测算，我国石油、铁矿石、铜的年进口量均已占国内年消费总量的50%以上，每年大宗农产品进口相当于节约了5亿亩耕地。由此可见，即便外贸顺差减少甚至出现逆差，考虑到进口对经济发展的促进作用，外贸对经济增长也是有利的。

据测算,China's oil/The iron ore/In copper imports have accounted for over 50% of the total domestic consumption in,Commodities imported each year equal to 500 million mu of arable land has been saved.Thus it can be seen,Even if the trade surplus to reduce or even deficit,Considering the import to promote economic development,Foreign trade on economic growth would be beneficial.

　　商务部数据显示，目前，我国外贸领域吸纳就业超过8000万人，其中60％以上来自农村。出口增速每提高1个百分点，可增加转移劳动力20万人。专门以出口为导向的加工贸易，也能带动国内配套产业发展，推动国内技术进步和产业升级。

商务部数据显示,At present,More than 80 million people absorb the employment field of foreign trade in our country,More than 60% of them are from the countryside.Export growth every 1% increase,Can increase the transfer of Labour force of 200000 people.Specialized export-oriented processing trade,Can also be driving the development of domestic supporting industries,To promote domestic technology progress and industrial upgrading.

　　努力调整对外贸易结构

努力调整对外贸易结构

　　全球第一大贸易国不是我们的追求目标，提高外贸质量和水平，是未来的着力点

The world's largest trading nation is not our goal,Improve the quality and level of foreign trade,Is the focus of the future

　　当然，中国制造产业仍在国际产业分工体系中处于低端，比较优势主要集中在劳动密集型产品和高新技术产品的劳动密集型环节。大而不强，是我国外贸结构中最突出的问题。

当然,China's manufacturing industry is still in low-end position in the international industrial division system,Comparative advantage is mainly concentrated in the labor-intensive products and high-tech products, labor-intensive link.Big and not strong,Is the most prominent problems in the foreign trade structure in our country.

　　前不久，有外媒报道称，根据美国商务部数据，2012年美国货物贸易总额为38628.59亿美元。而中国2012年的贸易总额为38667亿美元，首次超过美国。中国已经成为全球第一大货物贸易国。

前不久,There are foreign media reported,According to the U.S. Commerce Department data,The United States in 2012 total trade in goods for $2012.While China's total trade volume in 2012 for $3.8667 trillion,More than the United States for the first time.China has become the world's largest trading nation of goods.

　　对此，商务部新闻发言人沈丹阳表示：“这是由于中美两国统计口径不一致造成的。”按照世贸组织的统计口径，我国比美国进出口总额仍少156.4亿美元。我国仍居全球出口第一和进口第二贸易国地位。

对此,Commerce ministry spokesman Shen Danyang said:"This is caused by inconsistent statistics caliber in China and the United States."According to the statistical caliber of the world trade organization (wto),China's import and export amount is still $15.64 billion less than the United States.Our country is still in the world the first export and import the second trading nation status.

　　沈丹阳说，全球第一大贸易国不是我们的追求目标，提高对外贸易质量和水平，才是未来发展的着力点。

沈丹阳说,The world's largest trading nation is not our goal,Improve the quality and level of foreign trade,Is the focus of the development of the future.

　　时下，适应国内、国际市场变化，各地正按照中央决策部署，加快转变发展方式，调整外贸结构，努力提升中国制造在全球产业链中的位置。

时下,To adapt to the domestic/Changes in the international market,Everywhere is in accordance with the central policy decisions,Accelerate transformation of the mode of development,Adjust the foreign trade structure,Efforts to improve China's position in the global industrial chain.

　　可以预见，随着外贸“转方式、调结构”战略的深入实施，消费、投资、出口“三驾马车”将跑得更稳健、更协调。

可以预见,Along with the foreign trade"Go way/The structure of the"Strategy for further implementation,consumption/investment/export"troika"Will run much more robust/More coordination.