网易机构预测指数第十四期对CPI、信贷、进出口等数据进行了预测，调查显示4月份CPI小幅回升，或为2.3%；PPI继续下跌，转正时点或延迟至三季度；新增贷款较3月份大幅回落，M2增速与3月份持平；出口和进口波动不大。

网易机构预测指数第十四期对CPI/The credit/Such as import and export data,April CPI recovered slightly according to the survey,Or 2.3%;Producer prices continue to fall,Positive point or delayed to the third quarter;New loans dropped sharply in March,M2 growth and flat in March;Export and import fluctuation is not big.

　　出口或增11.4%

出口或增11.4%

　　调查显示，4月出口同比增速预测均值为11.4%，最小值为5.9%，最大值为27.4%。预测均值略高于3月商务部公布的10.0%。

调查显示,April exports year-on-year growth forecast of 11.4%,Minimum value is 5.9%,A maximum of 27.4%.March forecast slightly higher than the ministry of commerce released by 10.0%.

　　欧美复苏势头仍不稳定，各种不确定因素仍不断冲击欧美脆弱的经济基本面。4月PMI新出口订单降至50以下，预计未来出口仍将面临较大压力，欧美经济复苏程度仍是影响出口的主要因素。

欧美复苏势头仍不稳定,Various uncertainties continue impact in Europe and the weak economic fundamentals.April PMI's new export orders fell to below 50,Expected future exports continue to face high pressure,Degree of Europe and the United States economic recovery is still the main factors influencing the export.

　　国泰君安认为3月出口额达1822亿美元，处高位水平，1季度出口增18.4%，远超年初预期。预计2013年中国出口复苏的趋势在延续，四月出口同比增加5.9%。

Guotai junan认为3月出口额达1822亿美元,At a high level,1 quarter, exports increased by 18.4%,Earlier than expected.Is expected in 2013 China's export recovery trend is continuing,Exports rose 5.9% in April.

　　招商证券认为今年外围环境好于去年，美国经济继续复苏，欧洲逐步趋于稳定，塞浦路斯局势相对可控，但需注意日元竞争性贬值对我国出口的影响。考虑到套利资金的扰动，随着相关部门加强监管，出口增速在未来将会逐步回落至正常水平。

招商证券认为今年外围环境好于去年,The U.S. economy continues to recovery,Europe tends to be stable gradually,Situation in Cyprus relatively controllable,But need to pay attention to the competitive devaluations impact on exports of our country.Considering the disturbance arbitrage funds,Along with the relevant departments to strengthen supervision,Export growth in the future will gradually back to more normal levels.

　　从今年广交会的参会厂商和新订单增长统计数据看，虽然欧盟市场的新订单增长依然低迷，但来自美国市场的出口需求明显好于去年，而源自拉美等新兴市场的出口需求则表现强劲。整体预计，自二季度起美国经济仍将持续复苏，中国外贸发展面临的国内外环境也比去年有所改善，但制约因素错综复杂，挑战和压力仍然较大。如果外部环境不发生大的变化，2013年全年中国进出口将延续平稳增长态势，增长速度有望略高于上年，但大幅回升的可能性不大。

从今年广交会的参会厂商和新订单增长统计数据看,Although the eu market of new orders growth remains sluggish,But demand for exports from the us market is much better than last year,And export demand is derived from Latin America and other emerging markets is strong.Overall estimated,Since the second quarter, the U.S. economic recovery will continue,China's foreign trade development is facing at home and abroad environment also improved than last year,But restricting factors is very complicated,Challenges and pressure still bigger.If the external environment not happen big changes,2013 China import and export will continue steady growth,Growth is expected to be slightly higher than the previous year,But dramatic recovery is unlikely.

　　进口波动不大

进口波动不大

　　调查显示，4月进口同比增速预测均值为12.5%，最小值为6%，最大值为18.1%。预测均值低于3月统计局公布的14.1%的增长率。

调查显示,April imports year-on-year growth forecast of 12.5%,Minimum value is 6%,A maximum of 18.1%.Forecast the growth rate of less than 14.1% of the march bureau.

　　国内经济复苏仍然较弱，经济虽然见底，但主动补库存始终未出现，进口增速将不会出现较大幅度波动。

国内经济复苏仍然较弱,Although economic bottom,But take the initiative to fill inventory does not appear all the time,Import growth will not be substantial fluctuations.

　　二季度是企业传统的开工旺季叠加去年同期的低基数效应，推动4月进口同比增速继续保持增长。同时考虑到今年一季度进口高新技术产品同比27%的超水平增速，加上在近期人民币持续升值的大环境下，不排除海外资本通过进口用人民币在国内付款的方式将资金留存国内，预计4月“体积小、重量轻、价值高的电子和高新技术产品”的进口规模仍将超水平增长，进而整体推高4月进口增速继续稳固在两位数的高位水平。

二季度是企业传统的开工旺季叠加去年同期的低基数效应,Drive continued growth of April year-on-year growth in imports.At the same time considering the import of new and high technology products in the first quarter this year compared with 27% of the growth in over our heads,Environment, plus the RMB continue to appreciate in the near future,Does not exclude foreign capital will be by means of import payment in RMB in the domestic money left at home,Is expected in April"Small in size/Light in weight/价值高的electronic和高新技术产品"Imports will continue to increase over our heads,And then pushing the whole April imports growth continue to stabilize at double-digit levels high.

　　至于未来的进口走势，交通银行认为，随着微观企业主体进口需求的恢复性增长，以及国内固定资产投资累计同比的继续回升，未来数月我国的进口需求仍将保持较高增速。同时，在国家外贸再平衡战略的推动下，未来政府将进一步完善进口政策，扩大能源资源、先进技术设备、关键零部件和国内有需求的消费品进口，推动对外贸易平衡发展。此外，在美元小幅走强带动国际大宗商品价格震荡下行的大背景下，未来进口方面可能出现量增价平的格局。整体预计全年进口同比增速将为10%左右。

至于未来的进口走势,Bank of communications that,As the main body of micro enterprise import demand grows,And domestic investment in fixed assets accumulated compared to continue to rebound,In the next few months China's import demand will remain high growth.At the same time,Under the impetus of the national foreign trade rebalancing strategy,The government will further perfect the import policy in the future,Expanding energy resources/Advanced technology and equipment/The import of key components and there's a demand of consumer goods in the domestic,To promote foreign trade balance development.In addition,The dollar slightly strong drives international commodity price shocks down the backdrop,The future imports increase possible quantity price flat pattern.Overall annual import year-on-year growth is expected to about 10%.