中国4月进出口数据均再度大幅高出市场预期，其中出口同比增长14.7%，进口同比增长16.8%。这一数据再度遭到市场质疑，就如此前3月份的出口数据一样，市场普遍认为，这是某些企业套取退税及境外资金躲避资本管制，而通过贸易通道流入的结果，政府最近的一系列政策也正在应对这些贸易投机现象。

China's import and export data are sharply again in April is higher than market expectations,With exports up 14.7% from a year earlier,Imports grew by 16.8% year on year.This data was questioned again,So before the export data in March,The market is generally accepted that,This is some enterprises show the drawback and offshore funds to avoid capital controls,And through trade channels to the results,The government's recent series of policy is to respond to these trade speculation phenomenon.

　　就在4月份贸易数据公布前，外管局不仅收紧了金融机构的外汇综合头寸下限，还要求加强对异常资金流入的审查。其中一份通知称，将对资金流与货物流严重不匹配的进出口企业提出警告。这些打击外汇套利的行为，旨在缓和人民币升值带来的资本流入压力。

Just before the trade figures released in April,Safe tightened financial institutions of foreign exchange not only general position limit,Also requires to strengthen the examination of abnormal capital inflows.According to a notice,Will have on the cash flow and goods flow warning serious don't match the import and export enterprises.The battle of foreign exchange arbitrage,Designed to ease the capital inflow pressure from the appreciation of the renminbi.

　　吸引资本流入的因素，主要是人民币持续升值。考虑到美国、日本等实施大幅宽松的货币政策，欧元区、澳大利亚等再次降息，国际资本流入中国可以进行利率和汇率双重无风险套利。自今年2月中旬至今，人民币对美元已经累计升值了1.44%，与此同时，今年前3个月，外汇占款累计增加了1.2万亿元人民币，是去年全年增量的2.5倍之多，但累计新增的贸易顺差和外商直接投资只有4600亿元人民币，仅占新增外汇占款的38%左右。

To attract capital inflows,Mainly is the continued appreciation in the yuan.Considering that the United States/Such as Japan slashed the loose monetary policy,The euro zone/Australia cut interest rates again,International capital flows into China can be double risk-free arbitrage interest rate and exchange rate.Since mid-february,The yuan has gained 1.44% against the dollar,At the same time,The first 3 months of the year,Foreign exchange has increased by 1.2 trillion yuan,More than 2.5 times that of last year increment,But the total new trade surplus and foreign direct investment is only 460 billion yuan,Accounts for only about 38% of new foreign exchange.

　　这就有必要反思人民币汇率坚持升值的政策，这项政策的结果，首先是出口企业遭受汇率升值与工资提升的内外夹攻，尤其是日元贬值对中国出口影响很大；其次，就是吸引国际资本流入，加强中国的流动性，推动通胀和资产泡沫。这两个趋势对中国经济的稳定构成威胁。

It is necessary to reflect on the RMB exchange rate appreciation policy,The results of this policy,First is the export enterprises suffered both appreciation and wage increase,Especially with the yen had a great influence on China's exports;The second,Is to attract international capital inflows,To strengthen the liquidity in China,Push inflation and asset bubbles.Both of these trends pose a threat to China's economic stability.

　　既然如此，为何还保持人民币强势，通过中间价不断抬高人民币汇率呢？一种说法是为了推动人民币国际化，但是，以国家经济变得更具风险而追求远期目标是缺乏逻辑的。因此，一种观点认为，保持人民币强势的主要目的，是维持人民币资产的稳定。

In that case,Why is keeping the yuan strong,Through the middle price continuously raise the yuan's exchange rate?Another way is to push the internationalisation of the renminbi,but,On national economy became more risk and the pursuit of long-term goals is lack of logic.so,One view,The main purpose of keeping the yuan strong,Is to maintain the stability of renminbi assets.

　　2012年，中国一直保持“国际收支双顺差”的局面被打破，资产价格面临巨大的贬值压力，假如这种预期导致资本开启外流趋势，就会形成一股从众的潮流，从而对资产价格构成致命的打击。考虑到中国政府与企业过高的杠杆，资产贬值必然引起债务危机与金融坏账，进而打击需求，银行惜贷，这种信用连锁反应就会让中国面临大萧条式的危机。

In 2012,,China has been keeping"The double surplus of balance of payment"The situation has been broken,Depreciation of the asset prices under huge pressure,If this cause the outflow of capital on the trend,Can form a trend of conformity,Thus a fatal blow to asset prices.Considering the high leverage, the Chinese government and enterprises,Asset depreciation is bound to cause the debt crisis and the financial bad debts,And thus dampen demand,Banks reluctant to lend,This credit chain reaction will make China faced the crisis of the depression type.

　　因此，资产价格稳定是中国经济稳定和转型的前提，资产贬值就如打开潘多拉的盒子，脆弱的经济结构会因市场预期恶化而遭受致命打击。但是，鉴于中国楼市价格已经出现泡沫化征兆，既不能下跌，也不准继续上涨，最好的办法就是冻结，以限购以及财税政策打击投机需求，同时，在流动性方面给予支撑。

so,Asset price stability is a prerequisite for China's economic stability and transformation,Asset depreciation as open Pandora's box,Fragile economic structure will be suffering from a deadly blow because of the deterioration of market expectations.but,Given China's housing prices have signs appear bubbles,Can not drop,Also not allowed to continue to rise,The best thing to do is freeze,To purchase and the fiscal and taxation policies to crack down on speculative demand,At the same time,Give support in terms of liquidity.

　　如果中国出现双逆差的局面，外汇占款带来的宽裕流动性将逆转为被动紧缩，显然不利于稳定资产价格。尤其是被动紧缩时直接实施宽松货币政策，可能会让债务失控，资产价格泡沫化。因此，保持稳定的次优选择就是以强势人民币稳定资产。

If China were to appear the situation of double deficit,Foreign exchange brought by ample liquidity will reverse the passive contraction,Obviously not conducive to stable asset prices.Especially when tight passive direct implementation of loose monetary policy,Might be a debt out of control,Asset price bubbles.so,Stable sub-optimal choice is stable with a stronger yuan assets.

　　但是，目前的形式表明，强势人民币政策虽然能暂时防止资本外流，却吸引了大量投机资本流入。据悉，央行可能重启公开市场操作，对冲持续增长的外汇占款的影响。中国金融政策面临加息或减息左右为难，只能装进池子。鉴于实体经济的脆弱，中国货币政策捣糨糊的空间越来越小，显然，中国没有必要为了得到一种脆弱的稳定，继续搭进更多的资源。

but,In its current form,A stronger yuan policy although can temporarily to prevent capital outflows,Has attracted a large number of speculative capital inflows.It is understood,The central bank could resume open market operations,Hedge against the influence of the continuous growth of foreign exchange.Chinese financial policy to raise interest rates or rates in a quandary,Only into the pool.In the light of the real economy vulnerable,China's monetary policy dao space of the paste is more and more small,clearly,China it is not necessary in order to get a fragile stability,Continue to build in more resources.