中国海关总署5月8日公布的贸易数据显示，即便在对美国和欧盟出口增速双双下降的情况下，4月份中国出口同比、环比增速仍双双超预期加速。受中国出口增速好于预期的刺激，当天亚洲股市连续第三个交易日上扬。东京当地时间18时20分，MSCI亚太指数上涨1%至143.44点。 

中国海关总署5月8日公布的贸易According to data,即便在对美国and欧盟出口增速双双下降的情况下,In April China's exports/Month-on-month growth still both than expected to accelerate.China's export growth stimulation of better than expected,Asian stock markets rose for a third consecutive trading day on the day.When Tokyo 18 local time 20 points,The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 1% to 143.44. 

　　在解读4月贸易数据时，当天与本报记者连线的几位外资银行经济学家均认为，实际的外需可能比最新出口数据所显示出来的弱得多，4月出口增长表现强劲部分受到了贸易商为了协助外汇流入而虚报出口的影响。鉴于日前国家外汇管理局已宣布了监管热钱通过贸易渠道流入境内的新规定，未来几个月中国的出口增长很可能会趋于放缓。尽管如此，美银-美林证券大中华区经济研究部主管陆挺表示，某些进口数据已传递出内需正处在复苏轨道上的信号。 

在解读4月贸易数据时,当天与本报记者连线的几位外资The bank经济学家均认为,The actual external demand may be worse than the latest export data shows much weaker,Export growth in April is strong part by traders in order to assist foreign exchange inflows and false export.Given by the state administration of foreign exchange announced the regulatory hot money inflow through trade channels of the new rule,In the next few months China's export growth is likely to tend to be slow.In spite of this,Bank of america-merrill lynch, head of China economics research director lu said,Some import data are delivered out of domestic demand on the recovery track signal. 

　　出口数据存在虚报扭曲 

出口数据存在虚报扭曲 

　　在高盛经济学家宋宇眼里，4月份出口数据受到了低基数效应、春节干扰消退和出口商虚报数字的影响。其他几位经济学家则认为，出口商虚报一季度和4月份出口数据造成了较大扭曲，证据包括保税区出口和对香港地区出口的非正常强劲。 

在高盛经济学家宋宇眼里,Export data in April by the low base effects/春节干扰消退and出口商虚报数字的影响.A few other economists argue,出口商虚报一季度and4月份出口数据造成了较大扭曲,证据包括保税区出口and对香港地区出口的非正常强劲. 

　　陆挺说，4月份中国对香港地区的出口同比大增57%（3月份增幅为93%），保税区出口同比大增249%(3月增343%)。澳新银行大中华区首席经济师刘利刚认为，近期中国出口大增主要来自于大陆和香港的跨境贸易。同时，对香港出口的增加，以及香港对内地大幅度的再出口增长，也无法解释为两地统计方式的差异。“我们发现，在2013年第一季度，中国多数的贸易增长来自于广东/深圳与香港之间的往来贸易。这一部分贡献了出口增量的53%，广东的出口总量也大大高于港口吞吐量数据，这表明出口商可能虚报出口数据，这最终导致了中国出口的大幅‘增长’。”野村证券中国首席经济学家张智威也表示，强劲的贸易数据可能反映的是资本流动而非基本面。他表示，强劲的贸易增长并非预示着增长的恢复，其可能部分受到4月份工作日比去年同期多两天的推动。不仅如此，中国最新贸易数据与韩国和中国台湾地区的不一致，表明其可能反映出4月份资本的持续流入。 

陆挺说,In April China's exports to Hong Kong rose 57% year-on-year(A 93% increase in March),Free trade zone exports surged 249% year-on-year(3 month increased by 343%).澳新The bank大中华区首席经济师刘利刚认为,近期中国出口大增主要来自于大陆and香港的跨境贸易.At the same time,The increase in exports to Hong Kong,Substantial export growth to the mainland and Hong Kong,Can't explain differences for both statistical way."We found that,In the first quarter of 2013,Most of China's trade growth from guangdong/trade between shenzhen and Hong Kong.This part of the contributed 53% of export growth,Guangdong's exports are also much higher than port throughput data,This suggests that exporters may inflate the export data,This eventually led to China's exports greatly‘growth’."Nomura's chief China economist Zhang Zhiwei also said,Strong trade data may reflect the capital flows rather than fundamentals.He said,Strong trade growth is not herald a growth recovery,It may partly be working days in April, two days more than the same period last year.Not only that,中国最新贸易数据与韩国and中国台湾地区的不一致,Suggests that it may reflect the continued inflows of capital in April. 

　　几位经济学家均认为实际的外需可能比出口数据所显示出来的弱得多。其理由包括：最新数据显示美国和欧元区经济增速放慢、制造业PMI出口订单分项指标走软等。据悉，制造业PMI分项指标———新出口订单指数已从3月份的50.9降至4月的48.6。除此之外，陆挺称，“4月份对韩国和台湾地区出口零增长，在刚结束的广交会上有所改善但仍为负值的出口订单增速，以及与外贸相关的集装箱吞吐量增速疲弱（4月份仅为4%）”都是促使他作出上述判断的理由。 

几位经济学家均认为实际的外需可能比出口数据所显示出来的弱得多.The reasons include:最新According to data美国and欧元区经济增速放慢/PMI manufacturing export orders sub-index weakness, etc.It is understood,Manufacturing PMI sub-index - new export orders index has risen from 50.9 in March fell to 48.6 in April.In addition to this,Lu said,"4月份对韩国and台湾地区出口零growth,In the Canton fair on the end of the improved but remains negative growth in export orders,As well as related to foreign trade container throughput growth is weak(April is only 4%)"Are prompted him to make a judgment of the above reasons. 

　　进口数据暗示内需正在复苏 

进口数据暗示内需正在复苏 

　　尽管可能存在某些扭曲，但陆挺认为进口数据更加准确和令人鼓舞。他说，4月份铁矿石进口量同比增速已从3月份的2.7%加速至16.4%，原油(96.67,0.05,0.05%)进口量增速则从-2.1%加速至3.7%。不仅如此，他进一步分析表示，部分先行指标也出现了某些正面信号，如发电量和水泥需求。 

尽管可能存在某些扭曲,但陆挺认为进口数据更加准确and令人鼓舞.He said,Iron ore imports in April year-on-year growth has accelerated to 16.4% from 2.7% in March,The crude oil(96.67,0.05,0.05%)Imports growth accelerated from 2.1% to 3.7%.Not only that,He said further analysis,Some leading indicators, there is some positive signals,如发电量and水泥需求. 

　　“这有助于增强我们对二季度增长温和复苏的确信度。我们预计4月份主要的增长指标，如工业生产、固定资产投资和零售，都会显示出改善迹象。”陆挺如是说。 

"这有助于增强我们对二季度growth温and复苏的确信度.We expect the main indicators of growth in April,Such as industrial production/固定资产投资and零售,Will be showing signs of improvement."Lu said. 

　　具体到贸易组成，数据显示，4月份高附加值的普通出口同比增速从3月的-4.5%反弹到11.2%，而低附加值的加工性出口与3月份微升0.5%相比则同比走平。作为反映内需指标之一的普通进口增速则从3月的同比4.8%改善至9.3%；作为加工性出口先行指标的加工性进口增速则从3月份的同比9.1%增至9.7%。 

具体到贸易组成,According to data,High value-added ordinary exports year-on-year growth in April from march - 4.5% rebound to 11.2%,And low value-added export processability compared with edged up 0.5% in March year on go flat.As an indicator reflect domestic demand, one of the regular import growth is improved from march compared with the 4.8% to 9.3%;Export leading indicators as the workability of processability import growth from march compared with the 9.1% to 9.7%. 

　　出口将回归至更合理水平 

出口将回归至更合理水平 

　　正是因为意识到了贸易数据“被增长”这一现象的严重性，国家外管局在上周末出台了监管热钱通过贸易渠道流入境内的新规，刘利刚如是认为。从政策角度来说，他表示，这种由于金融套利驱使的实体经济活动，给货币政策带来了相当大的挑战。这导致大量热钱的流入，并对人民币汇率产生了压力。 

正是因为意识到了贸易数据"Be growth"The seriousness of this phenomenon,National safe over the weekend issued regulation of hot money inflow of new rules through trade channels,Liu ligang at anz so think.From a policy standpoint,He said,Such as financial arbitrage drives real economic activity,Presents a considerable challenge to monetary policy.This leads to a large number of hot money inflows,And has a pressure on the RMB exchange rate. 

　　“我们认为，中国的政策制定者应该对贸易状况有更加准确的了解。整体来看，由于贸易增速并不像数据显示得那样强劲，中国央行不应允许人民币过度走强。中长期来看，中国仍然应该加快境内利率市场化的改革步伐，加强商业银行之间的竞争，开放资本账户。从政策配套来看，需要改革目前的外贸和外资政策。中国外贸政策的核心仍然是鼓励出口，但对于中国目前这样一个已经拥有3万亿美元外汇储备的国家来说，过度青睐外资的政策取向已经显得过时了。”刘利刚说。 

"We believe that,China's policymakers should have a more accurate understanding on trade conditions.On the whole,Due to the trade growth is not as strong as data showed,The people's bank of China should not allow the yuan too strong.Medium and long term view,Still should speed up the pace of market-oriented interest rate reform in China,加强商业The bank之间的竞争,Open the capital account.From the policy supporting,需要改革目前的外贸and外资政策.The heart of China's foreign trade policy is still encourage exports,But in China is such a country already has $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves,Excessive favor foreign policy orientation has become out of date."Liu ligang at anz said. 

　　随着外管局新规在五、六月份得以落实，几位专家均预计此后中国的出口增长很可能会放缓，将回归更加正常的水平。法兴银行中国经济学家姚炜预计，如果外管局的上述措施奏效，未来几个月中国的贸易增速将逐步正常化至更加合理的水平。陆挺则预计今年全年出口增速为12%，高于去年8%的增速。 

随着外管局新规在五/Be implemented in June,Several experts are expected since then China's export growth will likely slow,Will return to more normal levels.法兴The bank中国经济学家姚炜预计,If these measures are safe work,China's trade growth over the next few months will gradually normalized to more reasonable levels.Lu is expected export growth of 12% this year,Is higher than the 8% growth last year.