4月份数据显现中国经济依旧疲弱，且6月份即将进入夏季淡季，这意味着需求在二季度改善空间有限，铜价在5月14日，结束反弹再度拐头向下。此外，外汇局5月份新规定将进一步压缩融资铜规模，导致中国对铜的投机需求锐减，这意味着铜价仍将有再度探底的风险。

The April data showed China's economy is still weak,In June and is about to enter the summer season,This means that the demand in the second quarter improvement space is limited,Copper prices in May 14,End of rebound again turn head downward.In addition,Safe in May, the new rule will be further compressed financing scale of copper,Lead to speculative demand for copper in China,That means prices will have a risk of dip again.

　　铜需求改善空间有限

Copper demand to improve the space is limited

　　首先，工业增速不及预期意味着工业用铜继续温和增长。中国4月规模以上工业增加值同比增长9.3%，不及预期的9.5%。更能反映工业情况的发电量，其增速依旧疲软，4月份同比增长仅为6.2%。统计发现，工业增加值与铜消费增速发现二者存在明显的正相关关系（相关度在0.7左右），这意味着国内铜消费可能延续5%以下的增速。

First of all,Industrial growth disappoints means industrial copper continued moderate growth.China's industrial output in April rose 9.3% from a year,9.5% less than expected.Can better reflect the industrial situation,Its growth is still weak,Year-on-year growth was just 6.2% in April.Statistics found that,Industrial production and copper consumption growth is found that the obvious positive correlation(The correlation is somewhere around 0.7),This means that the domestic copper consumption may continue below 5% growth.

　　其次，传统工业产能过剩日益严重之际，生产者物价指数已是连续第14个月下降，预示已面临债务增加和增长放缓等问题的中国经济将受到进一步的困扰。该指数下降将使工业品和大宗商品生产商盈利、偿还债务以及按时向供应商付款的难度加大。

The second,Traditional industrial overcapacity is increasingly serious,Producer prices have been falling for 14 months,Herald has faced problems such as increased debt and growth of China's economy will be further problems.The index fell to make industrial and commodity producers to make a profit/Repayment of the debt and the difficulty of the on time payment to supplier.

　　最后，市场寄希望的基建投资业不给力，原本下游企业寄希望基建投资拉动有色金属消费，但是实际数据可谓当头一棒，且投资结构恶化。数据显示，基建投资增速明显放缓，水利、环境和公共设施管理业投资增速4月同比增长22.7%，较一季度36.5%大幅下跌。4月制造业投资增速回落，当月同比下滑至17.9%。尽管房地产开发投资增速显著加快，但房地产对铜消费拉动有限。

The last,Market hopes for infrastructure investments,Originally the downstream enterprises hope that infrastructure investment pull non-ferrous metal consumption,But the actual data is a blow,And the deterioration of the investment structure.According to data,Infrastructure investment growth slowed significantly,Water conservancy/Environment and public facilities management investment growth rose 22.7% in April from a year earlier,From the first quarter fell sharply 36.5%.Manufacturing investment growth fell back in April,The month fell to 17.9%.Although the real estate development investment growth is accelerated significantly,But the property of copper consumption is limited.

　　人民币升值

The appreciation of the renminbi

　　对铜进口刺激有限

In copper imports to stimulate co., LTD

　　自年初以来，国内铜进口一直在下滑，这意味着中国铜消费力度已在放缓，并且在进行去库存操作。数据显示，4月未锻造铜及铜材进口29.58万吨，达到22个月低位，同比下滑21.2%，这与当月中国整体进出口10%以上的增长构成鲜明反差。

Since the beginning of the year,Domestic copper imports have been falling,This means that the strength of Chinese copper consumption has been slowing,And on to the inventory operation.According to data,In April of unwrought copper and copper imports 295800 tons,Low at 22 months,Fell 21.2%,With the monthly import and export more than 10% of China's overall growth in stark contrast.

　　2月份以来，由于人民币升值，国内铜进口亏损逐步缩减，在这个角度来看，人民币升值对铜进口是有利的。通过计算，从2月初到5月9日时人民币对美元最高水平，人民币升值幅度达到1.42%，铜进口也从2月份亏损3200元/吨变为亏损530元/吨，人民币升值对于亏损的下降起到重要作用。

Since February,Due to the appreciation of the renminbi,Domestic copper imports loss gradually reduced,In this perspective,The appreciation of the renminbi is good for copper imports.By calculating,From the beginning of February to May 9, when the yuan at its highest level against the dollar,The appreciation of the renminbi rate reached 1.42%,Copper imports also from loss of 3200 yuan/ton in February to losses of 530 yuan/ton,The appreciation of the renminbi down play an important role for losses.

　　然而，铜进口有三个方面的影响因素：进口盈亏、国内需求和融资铜规模。从进口盈亏来看，进口亏损的缩减对铜进口是有利的，但是由于国内铜需求依旧温和，再加上2013年融资铜规模因资金需求下降而缩减，人民币升值对铜进口提振是有限的。缺乏中国的强劲买盘，铜价反弹不具备持续性。

however,Copper imports have the influence factors of three aspects:Imports of profit and loss/Domestic demand and financing scale of copper.Imports from the profit and loss,Imports of loss reduction is good for copper imports,But because the domestic demand is still modest,Plus 2013 financing scale of copper reduction due to falling demand of money,The appreciation of the renminbi on copper to boost imports are limited.The lack of strong buying in China,Copper rally does not have continuity.

　　外汇局新规

New regulations by safe

　　将压缩融资铜规模

The compressed financing scale of copper

　　从2013年初开始，中国融资铜规模就不断缩减，表现在保税区铜库存下降以及铜进口逐月下滑。数据显示，保税区铜库存从年初的80万吨左右下降至4月底的51万吨左右，而精炼铜进口从年初的24.3万吨降至3月份的21.9万吨，预计4月份将进一步下降至20万吨左右。

Since the beginning of 2013,China's financing scale of copper is shrinking,In bonded area copper copper inventories and imports falling from month to month.According to data,Bonded area decreased from about 800000 tons of copper inventories from the beginning of the end of April of 510000 tons,And refined copper imports from at the beginning of the year fell to 243000 tonnes in March, 219000 tons,Is expected to decline further in April to 200000 tons.

　　热钱持续流入引发政府的干预。5月5日，国家外汇管理局下发《关于加强外汇资金流入管理有关问题的通知》，要求加强银行结售汇综合头寸管理、加强对进出口企业货物贸易外汇收支的分类管理，这将冲击融资铜。

Hot money continues to flow into the government's intervention.On May 5,,Issued by the state administration of foreign exchange[Informed about inflows of foreign exchange management related issues],Request to strengthen written guarantee comprehensive management positions/Import and export enterprises to strengthen trade in goods classification management of foreign exchange receipts and payments,This will impact the financing of copper.

　　融资铜模式的主要盈利点有三块：信用证息差、人民币升值带来收益和转口贸易收益，外汇局新规将封杀这三块的盈利空间。首先，央行近期的申明都表示高层对热钱流入担心加剧，外汇局的《通知》就是要堵住热钱无序流入的渠道，间接造成人民币升值势头趋缓，对融资铜的前两项收入有一定不利影响。其次，《通知》还规定，中资行与外资行分别以75%与100%为参考贷存比标准，一旦中外资银行外汇贷存比超过上述参考贷存比，应在每月初的10个工作日内将银行结售汇综合头寸调整至下限以上，这将迫使国内银行收紧外汇贷款额度，以满足《通知》要求，由此造成的美元信用证贷款进一步收缩，亦将限制融资铜规模。最后，《通知》关于转口贸易的规定亦引发关注：“B类企业转口贸易项下外汇收入，应在其进行相应转口贸易对外支付后方可结汇或划转；同一笔转口贸易业务的收支应在同一家银行办理；新签订的转口贸易合同，其收入和支出的结算货币应同为外汇或人民币”，这意味着融资铜获得人民币和美元息差，以及人民币升值带来的收益下降，融资铜贸易将进一步缩减。

There are three main profit financing model of copper pieces:Credit spreads/The appreciation of the renminbi gains and entrepot trade benefits,Safe new rules to ban this three piece of profit margins.First of all,Said the central bank's recent statements were at the top of hot money inflows worry about fuel,The safe[notice]Is to block the disorderly flow of hot money,Indirectly caused the appreciation of the renminbi has eased,First two income of financing copper have certain adverse effects.The second,[notice]Also provides,Lines of Chinese and foreign standard loan-to-deposit ratio with 75% and 75% respectively for reference,Once the loan-to-deposit ratio allows foreign Banks loan-to-deposit ratio of foreign exchange over the above reference,Should be at the beginning of each month the bank out within 10 working days from the general position adjustment to the floor above,This will force Banks to tighten domestic foreign exchange loans,In order to meet the[notice]requirements,The resulting dollar credit loan contract further,Will also restrict the financing scale of copper.The last,[notice]Provisions on entrepot trade also caused concern:"Class B enterprise foreign exchange income under entrepot trade,Should be in the corresponding entrepot trade behind the foreign payment can be settled or transferred;The same pen entrepot trade business income shall be handled in the same bank;Entrepot trade signed a new contract,It should be with the foreign exchange income and expenditure of currency or RMB",This means that the copper for the yuan and the dollar financing spreads,And a decline in the benefit from the appreciation of the renminbi,Financing the copper trade will shrink further.