中国4月份出口数据再次大大超出人们的预期。中国4月出口同比增长14.7%，不仅大大超出预期增长的9.2%，也大大高于上月增长10%。中国出口数据不仅是全球出口疲弱数据中的亮色，也与中国其他宏观数据形成了较大的反差。然而，中国出口贸易远没有这些数据那么亮丽。

China's export figures for April again greatly surpassed expectations.Chinese exports rose 14.7% year-on-year in April,Not only greatly than expected growth of 9.2%,10% growth is much higher than last month.China's export data is not only the global export weakness of bright color,Has formed a big contrast with other Chinese macroeconomic data.however,China's export trade is far from these data so bright.

　　出口贸易数据

Export trade data

　　与相关数据背离

And related data

　　事实上，今年以来亮丽的外贸数据一直成为争议焦点，因为出口贸易数据与其他同类数据之间出现了明显的背离。一是出口的大幅增长与中国主要港口的吞吐量之间的增速下滑，就形成了明显的反差。数据显示，一季度，中国外贸进出口总值9746.7亿美元，出口增速比2012年明显改善。但港口货物量增长却与出口数据不相匹配。数据显示，今年一季度港口完成外贸货物吞吐量8亿吨，增速较去年同期回落4.2个百分点。与出口直接相关的集装箱数据更显低迷，3月规模以上港口完成集装箱吞吐量1529万标箱，环比1、2月增速放慢了1.7个百分点。二是，如果从更为真实的出口交货值数据看，1-2月企业出口交货值同比仅增长7.8%，与出口贸易高增长差别非常大。

In fact,,Since this year beautiful foreign trade data has become a flashpoint,Because the export trade data and there is an obvious divergence between other similar data.A surge in sales to China main port throughput between the decline in growth,Has formed the distinct contrast.According to data,In the first quarter,China's foreign trade import and export gross of $974.67 billion,Export growth improved significantly than in 2012.But port cargo volume growth and the export figures do not match.According to data,In the first quarter this year complete foreign trade cargo throughput of 800 million tons,Growth rate was down 4.2% over the same period last year.Is directly related to exports of container data more depressed,March scale above completed port container throughput of 15.29 million teus,From 1/Growth slowed in February by 1.7%.The second is,If the export value of data from more realistic look,1 to 2 month enterprises export delivery value year-on-year growth of 7.8% only,And export trade growth difference is very big.

　　如果仔细分析，我们可以看到导致出口贸易数据背离可能源于两大原因：其一，由于材料、零部件、初级形态制成品及半制成品的国内生产单位通过出口，可直接获得出口退税，同时国家对加工贸易方式的进口实行减免税政策，因此一些企业通过保税区的出口复进口造成贸易虚增。其二，人民币国际化以及热钱效应。今年以来人民币跨境贸易结算大幅增长。今年前两个月人民币跨境贸易结算增长4128亿元，比去年同期上涨57.6%，一季度外汇占款也出现大幅激增。根据外汇局公布的数据，2013年3月中国银行(601988,股吧)代客结汇1522亿美元，售汇1076亿美元，结售汇顺差446亿美元，较2月份反弹38%，这是自去年9月份以来银行代客结售汇连续第7个月出现顺差，也是连续一年在较高水平上运行，这意味着跨境套利的资金流入境内的成分非常大，大大干扰了贸易数据的真实性。

If a careful analysis,We can see that lead to deviate from the export trade data may be due to two reasons:The first,Because of the material/Parts and components/Primary form finished products and semi-finished products of domestic production unit through the exit,Can directly obtain export tax rebates,At the same time, the state shall implement a way of processing trade import tax policies,So some enterprises through free trade zone of export after import trade inflated.The second,The internationalisation of the renminbi and the effect of hot money.Strong growth this year RMB cross-border trade settlement.The first two months of the year 412.8 billion yuan renminbi cross-border trade settlement growth,Compared with the same period last year rose 57.6%,In the first quarter also showed a sharp surge in foreign exchange.According to data released by safe,In March 2013, bank of China(601988,stocks)Valet foreign exchange settlement of $152.2 billion,Sale of $107.6 billion,Written guarantee surplus of $44.6 billion,A 38% rally in February,This is bank valet and out since last September a surplus for the seventh consecutive month,Running is also a year in a row at a higher level,This means that cross-border arbitrage funds inflow component is very big,Greatly interfere with the integrity of the trade data.

　　如果我们把贸易数据与制造业数据结合起来看，事实就更加明显。4月汇丰中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）初值为50.5，不但低于历史同期52.4的均值水平1.9个百分点，而且需求指数和产出指数同时双双下跌。今年以来，制造业PMI指数“进一退二”的特征非常明显，制造业走势的反复恰恰体现出本轮中国经济复苏的艰巨性和复杂性。新增出口订单缩水凸显外部需求欲振乏力，由于全球供需失衡的深层次矛盾并未得到有效解决，全球经济的潜在总产出和潜在需求构成长期负面影响，需求不足叠加生产过剩的双重矛盾呈现出常态化趋势。

If we combine the trade data and manufacturing data,The truth is more obvious.In April, HSBC China manufacturing purchasing managers index(The PMI)Initial value of 50.5,History not only lower than 1.9% during the same period the average level of 52.4,And the demand index and output index both fell at the same time.Since the beginning of this year,Manufacturing The PMI"In a half astern"The feature is very obvious,Manufacturing moves repeatedly precisely reflects the complexity and difficulty of China's economic recovery.New export orders by highlighting external demand, sluggish,The deeply rooted problems due to the global supply and demand imbalance has not been solved effectively,The global economy's potential output and potential demand make long-term negative effects,Lack of demand to the dual contradiction of the superposition overproduction present a trend of normal.

　　出口数据

Export data

　　未能反映经济转型困境

Failed to reflect the economic transformation

　　中国近期的出口数据并没有完全反映全球经济复苏的疲弱，更没有真实反映中国经济面临的转型困境。数据显示，2013年4月份，全球制造业PMI为50.5%，较上月调整后的51.1%回落0.6个百分点，尽管全球制造业活动仍保持增长趋势，但增速较上月有较大幅度的放缓。从受调查的主要国家或地区来看，由Markit公司调查发布的美国制造业增速较上月明显回调，指数创出近6个月以来的最低水平；日本制造业PMI连续两个月运行在50%以上，英国制造业活动继续下降，但降幅收窄；欧元区制造业活动连续21个月处于下降区间；印度、巴西和俄罗斯的制造业活动延续放缓态势。

China's recent export data does not fully reflect the weakness of the global economic recovery,No more real reflect the transformation of China's economy is facing difficulties.According to data,In April 2013,The global manufacturing The PMI was 50.5%,Down 0.6% from 51.1% last month after adjusting,Although global manufacturing activity remained growth trend,But growth in the last month have slowed considerably.From the perspective of the main countries or areas surveyed,By Markit survey released by the U.S. manufacturing sector grew from the previous month obvious callback,Index hit its lowest level since nearly six months;Japan's manufacturing The PMI for two months in a row running at more than 50%,British manufacturing activity continues to decline,But the decline narrowed;The euro zone's manufacturing activity falling for 21 months in a range;India/Brazil and Russia's manufacturing activity continued to slow.

　　目前，全球经济进入了较长时期的“增长疲弱期”，发达国家陷入“三高”困境，即“高赤字、高债务、高失业率”，并且越来越表现出“日本化”倾向，即政府债务不可持续、常规货币政策失灵、人口老龄化以及政治决策艰难等。而新兴经济体也面临着贸易盈余下降、财政压力上升与发展潜力的制约。

At present,The global economy has entered a long period"Weak growth period",The developed countries in"Three tenors"trouble,That is"High deficits/High debt/A high unemployment rate",And more and more shows"Japanese"Tend to be,The government debt is unsustainable/Conventional monetary policy failure/An ageing population and political decision-making difficult.And emerging economies also face trade surplus shrinks/Fiscal pressures and potential for development.

　　全球经济的有效需求不足以及去杠杆化仍是面临的主要问题，因此带来了全球范围内的生产能力过剩。受市场需求限制，欧美均存在过剩产能问题。近期美国开工率虽有所恢复，但仍低于1972年至2012年的平均水平。出口受阻，也使亚洲新兴经济体面临比较严重的产能过剩问题。中国出口贸易面临着非常大的外部挑战和内部的结构性调整，而中国亮丽和虚增的出口数据却掩盖了这一困境。

The insufficient effective demand of the global economy as well as deleveraging is still the main problem,Therefore brought global overcapacity.Restricted by the market demand,Europe and the United States are overcapacity problems.Recently the United States starts is recovered,But it is still below the average from 1972 to 2012.Export is blocked,Which Asian emerging economies also face more serious overcapacity problem.China's export trade is faced with very large external challenges and internal structural adjustment,While China's bright and inflated export data belies this dilemma.

　　中国出口企业

China's export enterprises

　　必须建立新的竞争优势

Must establish a new competitive advantage

　　面对越来越复杂的全球货币和贸易环境，中国必须挤出出口贸易的虚增成分，而应把眼睛盯在如何调整结构上，出口企业必须建立成本优势之外的新竞争优势，不断开拓高价值领域。按照世贸组织的统计，2012年中国进出口总额位居全球第二，仅比美国少156亿元人民币。进出口对中国经济的重要性不言而喻。“稳出口”也是金融危机以来外贸政策的核心，这在一定程度上左右着货币和汇率政策。

In the face of increasingly complex global currency and trade environment,China must squeeze out export trade inflated,And should be fixed her eyes on how to adjust the structure,Export enterprises must establish new competitive advantage outside of cost advantage,Develop high value areas.According to the statistics of the world trade organization (wto),In 2012 China import and export volume ranked the world's second,Only smaller than 15.6 billion yuan.Import and export of China's economic importance is self-evident."Steady export"Is also the core of the foreign trade policy since the financial crisis,About this to a certain extent, the monetary and exchange rate policy.

　　越来越多的事实表明，中国出口已经很难用价格竞争换取市场优势，因而货币贬值能够换取的贸易利益会很有限，单纯依靠低成本优势建立起来的国家比较优势已难以为继。中国制造业必须建立成本领先之外的竞争力，向价值链的上游攀升。需要使成本上升的压力成为一种有效的倒逼机制，下大力气向那些技术水平较高、规模报酬递增特征明显、产业盈利能力较强的产业结构转换，大幅度提高对前沿性、战略性、原创性技术领域的研究和开发投资，鼓励跨区域的合并重组，推动企业尽快实现结构升级，以便在更高层次、更大规模和全球范围内参与竞争。 （作者系国家信息中心预测部世界经济研究室副主任）

More and more facts show that,China's export advantage is hard to use price competition for market,Thus currency gain trade benefit will be very limited,Rely on low cost advantage to build a national comparative advantage is unsustainable.China's manufacturing cost leadership must be established outside of the competitiveness,The value chain upstream of the climb.Need to make the cost rising pressure to become an effective reversed transmission mechanism,Strive to the technical level is higher/The scale characteristic of increasing returns is obvious/Industry profitability strong industrial structure transformation,Increased significantly on the frontier/strategic/Original technology research and development in the field of investment,To encourage consolidation across regions,Promote enterprise realize structure upgrade as soon as possible,In order to a higher level/Larger and compete globally. (The author is deputy director of the ministry of the state information center forecast the world economy research)