一系列与宏观经济走势相背离的现象基本表明，新一轮大规模热钱流入已经开始。要阻击热钱流入，必须客观分析此轮热钱流入特点，既要提出治标之策，更要放眼长远，拿出治本之方—— 

A series and macro economic phenomenon of deviating from the basic,A new round of massive capital inflows has begun.To hot money inflows,Must be an objective analysis to the characteristics of hot money inflows,Should not only take temporary solution is put forward,Take a long view,Out fundamental party -- 

　　今年一季度以来，人民币汇率屡创新高、外汇占款余额快速增长、外币贷款异常攀升……一系列与宏观经济走势相背离的现象基本表明，新一轮大规模国际资本热钱流入已经开始，一场热钱阻击战不可避免。对此，国家外汇管理局近日发出通知，旨在通过控制外币贷款过速扩张和抑制通过虚假贸易带来的投机性资本流入，加强外汇资金流入管理。随着我国资本项目开放程度的提高和国际资本流动加剧，如何把握和引导好资本流动趋势已不容回避。 

Since the first quarter of this year,Record high of RMB exchange rate/Rapid growth of foreign exchange balance/Foreign currency loans rises abnormally...A series and macro economic phenomenon of deviating from the basic,A new round of large-scale international capital inflows has begun,A hot money war is inevitable.For this,The state administration of foreign exchange recently issued a notice,Aims to control foreign currency loans to rapid expansion and inhibition through false trade of the speculative capital inflows,Strengthen the management of foreign exchange inflows.With the improvement of China's capital account openness and international capital flows,How to grasp the trend of capital flow and guide has unavoidable. 

　　首先，要看到通过贸易渠道流入是今年资本流动的显著特点。对热钱做精确估算通常较为困难，但可以从3个角度对今年一季度资本流入情况进行观察： 

First of all,To see through trade channels is the distinctive features of capital flows this year.Of hot money is accurately estimate is usually more difficult,But it can be from three angles of capital inflows in the first quarter this year: 

　　从热钱规模看，一季度我国新增外汇占款达1.2万亿元，是去年同期的4.2倍，剔除3435亿元的经常账户顺差和1830亿元FDI后，估算出当季热钱流入约6889亿元，占新增外汇占款的57%。 

Look from the scale of hot money,Quarter of China's new $1.2 trillion in foreign exchange,Was 4.2 times in the same period last year,To eliminate $343.5 billion current account surplus and FDI after 183 billion yuan,Estimate for the quarter hot money inflows of about 688.9 billion yuan,Accounting for 57% of the new foreign exchange. 

　　从贸易角度观察，由于我国实行资本账户管制，热钱进入主要借道商品贸易途径，这也造成了出口数据较明显虚增(尤其是保税区对港贸易数据)。前4个月，内地对香港出口同比增长69.1个百分点，同期对欧洲、美国、东盟和金砖国家的出口同比仅分别增长-1%、4.9%、30.5%和10%。香港作为转口贸易港，内地对其出口与对其他主要终端需求国出口增速出现显著背离实属蹊跷，背后隐含的是部分外贸企业通过“港澳一日游”等虚假贸易方式，将更多美元兑换为人民币资产以博取套利套汇收益。 

From the perspective of trade,Because our country capital account controls,Hot money from entering mainly through trade in goods,This also caused the export figures are inflated obviously(Especially in the bonded area of port trade data).The first four months,Mainland exports to Hong Kong up 69.1% from a year earlier,Over the same period of Europe/The United States/The association of southeast Asian nations (asean) and bric countries exports year-on-year growth of 1% respectively/4.9%/30.5% and 10%.Port of Hong Kong as a transit trade,Demand for its exports and other major terminals in mainland China export growth significant deviation is a catch in it somewhere,Behind the implicit part is through the foreign trade enterprises"One-day tour of Hong Kong and Macao"Such as false trade way,Will be more and more dollars into renminbi assets to earn arbitrage foreign exchange arbitrage profits. 

　　从外币贷款走势看，从去年四季度到今年一季度，国内企业的外币贷款异常快速攀升。今年一季度新增外币贷款4453亿元，是去年同期的2.4倍。而在外资进出相对平稳时期，外币贷款增速与人民币贷款增速差距较小。这反映了许多中国企业通过用美元等外币负债置换人民币负债，从而享用相对较低的利率和潜在汇兑收益。但这将导致相关的金融和外汇风险不断累积，例如一季度中国外币增量贷存比高达211.7%。 

Look from the movements of foreign currency loans,From the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year,Domestic enterprises of foreign currency loans unusually rapid rise.Foreign currency loans in the first quarter this year increase by RMB 445.3 billion yuan,Was 2.4 times in the same period last year.In the foreign capital in and out of the relatively stable period,Foreign currency loan growth and the renminbi loan growth gap is smaller.This reflects the many Chinese companies by foreign currency debt exchange renminbi debt in dollars, etc,Which have relatively low interest rates and exchange earnings potential.But this will result in the relevant financial and foreign exchange risk is accumulating,Such as in the first quarter of China's foreign currency incremental loan-to-deposit ratio as high as 211.7%. 

　　其次，与以往热钱寻求流入股市、楼市套利相比，今年一季度无风险套利空间的存在、银行助推是资本流入加速的原因。 

The second,Instead of hot money to seek in the stock market/The property market compared to carry,In the first quarter this year risk-free arbitrage space/Banks boost capital inflows is accelerated. 

　　一是中外利差和对人民币远期汇率的预期，导致资本流动加快。美国QE3以来，美元利率一直维持较低水平，导致中美利差较高。货币市场利差达3.6个百分点，国债利率差达2.7个百分点。虽然国内外利差自2011年以来一直存在，但由于去年前三季度人民币远期汇率存在较大贬值预期，因此并没有发生较大资本流入。去年四季度，人民币贬值预期迅速下降，导致今年一季度资本流向开始从流出转为流入。 

A sino-foreign spreads and the forward rate of the renminbi is expected,Lead to capital flows faster.The United States since the QE3,Dollar interest rate remains low,The spread is higher.Money market spread of 3.6%,Bond interest margin of 2.7%.Although there is spread both at home and abroad since 2011,But because of its high last year in the first three quarters of the forward rate is RMB devaluation expectations,So didn't happen large capital inflows.In the fourth quarter of last year,Depreciation expected drops rapidly,Cause in the first quarter this year turned into capital to start from the outflow. 

　　二是银行等机构推波助澜。套利者可以借入低利率的离岸人民币，存成高利率的在岸人民币。如套利者在内地以年利率6%借入1亿元2周，再以3%的利率存到银行，借此要求银行发出信用证。用该信用证，套利者的香港合伙人或关联公司可以从香港银行拿到1亿元一年期人民币贷款。然后套利者再从内地出口一些低体积、高价值的货物给其香港合伙人，收款1亿元，再将这1亿元还给银行。这一过程中，人民币存款利率和离岸人民币融资成本之差就是盈利。商业银行在当前实体经济疲弱、企业贷款风险较大的情况下，显然有动机从事此类业务。 

Second, Banks etc.Arbitrageurs to borrow offshore renminbi low interest rates,Put into the onshore interest rates.Such as arbitrageurs to borrow 100 million dollars two weeks annual rate of 6% in the mainland,Deposit to the bank with 3% interest rates again,To require Banks to issue the l/c.With the l/c,Arbitrageurs Hong Kong partners or affiliates of up to $100 million one-year RMB loans from the bank of Hong Kong.And then arbitrageurs from mainland exports some low volume/High value of goods to their Hong Kong partners,Payment $100 million,Then the 100 million yuan to the bank.In this process,RMB deposit interest rate and the offshore renminbi financing cost is the difference between the profit.Commercial Banks in the current real economy weak/Under the condition of enterprise loan risk is bigger,Clearly have an incentive to engage in such business. 

　　对当前的大规模热钱流入该如何防范？ 

For the current large-scale capital inflows how to prevent? 

　　对资本账户加强监管是国际一般通用手段。就中国这种资本账户开放度较低的国家而言，通过降息而缩小国内外息差来抑制资本流入的效果并不强，并且与当前的货币政策取向并不吻合。更有效的方式，是推进利率及汇率市场化改革、提升资本管理手段。 

Tighter regulation on capital account is the international common method.Is this China's capital account openness low countries,By cutting interest rates and narrow spreads to suppress the effects of capital inflows are not strong at home and abroad,And in accordance with the current monetary policy orientation is not.A more efficient way,Is the reform of marketization of interest rate and exchange rate/Raise capital management. 

　　首先适度增加人民币汇率弹性。汇率波动加大会增加投机者风险。回报率一定的前提下，投机性资本流动会减少。在资本项目开放的初级阶段，应该在逐步取消直接外汇管制的同时，提高汇率波动幅度、适当采用审慎管理手段来抑制过度的短期资本流动，让人民币汇率弹性估计接近主要国际货币的水平，逐步达到比较完全的资本项目开放。 

First of all a modest increase in the RMB exchange rate flexibility.Exchange rate volatility can increase the risk of speculators.Returns must be under the premise of,Speculative capital flows will be reduced.In the early stages of capital account opening,Should be in phase out direct exchange controls at the same time,Improve the exchange rate volatility/Appropriate adoption prudent management means to curb excessive short-term capital flows,To let the yuan exchange rate flexibility is estimated at close to the level of major international currency,To more fully open capital account step by step. 

　　做好各种资本流动宏观审慎手段的研究和准备工作已迫在眉睫。比如各类托宾税是管理资本流动最典型和有效的经济手段，在各种审慎手段中应最受重视。税收手段直接影响投机者获得的回报率，能直接制约其投机的动机。另外，按比例限制银行的短期外债(如余额不超过资本金的一定百分比)，仍然是在资本项目开放的初期不可或缺的宏观审慎手段。 

Prepare all kinds of capital flows macro-prudential measures research and preparatory work is imminent.Such as all kinds of the tobin tax is the most typical management of capital flows and effective economic means,Among various kinds of prudent means should be the most valued.Directly affect the returns of speculators get tax means,Can directly restrict the speculative motive.In addition,In proportion to limit Banks' short-term foreign debt(If the balance does not exceed a certain percentage of the capital),Is still in the early stages of the capital account opening, indispensable macro-prudential measures.