张茉楠（国家信息中心经济预测部世界经济研究室研究员）

Zhang Mo nan（The state information center forecast the world economic research of economic researchers）

　　全球贸易的未来走势不容乐观，代表全球贸易先行指标的波罗的海干散货指数自年初以来已累计下跌约52%。受需求低迷和供应链调整的影响，下半年全球贸易增速放缓的势头难以得到根本改变。 

The future trajectory of global trade is not optimistic，Global trade representative leading indicators of the Baltic dry bulk cargo index since the beginning of time already accumulative total fell about 52%。Demand and supply chain adjustment by the influence of the downturn，The second half of the global trade growth is slowing momentum is difficult to be changed fundamentally。