在外需动力不足、国内成本加压的内外交困境地中，中国外贸形势严峻性进一步突出，服装、鞋类、箱包等多项传统出口优势产业更是面临出口增速严重下滑态势。尤其是7月后，沿海主要省市出口增速明显放缓，为未来外贸回暖带来不确定性。对此，中央高层在调研中明确指出，三季度是实现全年出口增长目标的关键时期，要有针对性地采取措施推动出口稳定增长，为实现全年经济社会发展目标提供良好条件。

In the overseas market demand power shortage、The domestic cost pressure inside and outside the recounted the situation，China's foreign trade situation of further austerity outstanding，clothing、footwear、Bags and so on many traditional export advantage industry is facing a serious decline in export growth trend。Especially after July，The major coastal provinces and cities marked slowdown in export growth，For future foreign trade milder bring uncertainty。this，The central high in the research is pointed out，The third quarter is to achieve annual export growth in the key period of target，Want to have pointed to take measures to promote stable export growth，To achieve the goal of economic and social development to provide good condition。

　　传统产业出口下滑

The traditional industry export downturn

　　中国纺织品进出口商会最新统计数据显示，1-7月全国服装出口呈负增长，出口额829.4亿美元，微降0.2%，去年同期该类产品出口同比增速达到24.4%。欧、美、日三大主要出口市场形势持续低迷，其中服装对欧盟出口降幅逐月提高，对美日出口增长乏力。分列服装出口省市前四位的粤、浙、苏、沪出口形势欠佳，降幅在1%-4%之间。

China national textiles import and export chamber of commerce latest statistics data show，1 - July national clothing export a negative growth，Exports of $82.94 billion，Edge down 0.2%，This kind of products are exported to the same period last year 24.4% year-on-year growth。the、beauty、Day three major export market situation sustained downturn，The clothing exports to Europe by improving month by month，For the export growth lack of power。Parse clothing export the first four provinces and cities of guangdong、zhejiang、Sue、Shanghai export poor situation，By between 1% and 4%。

　　浙江杭州一家纺织品企业外贸部负责人表示，目前订单多是短单和小单，客户压价厉害，利润几乎为零，箱包、鞋类等传统优势出口产业也出现增幅急剧下滑。但记者了解到，还有一部分产品保持了相对优势，出口增速不降反增，例如今年前7个月家具及其零件出口增速达到28.1%，增幅较去年同期增加14.9个百分点。不过新的出口增长点仍未明显形成，7月外贸整体表现继续低迷，今年7月我国出口总额同比仅增长1%，分别比5月和6月的增幅回落14%和10%，为六个月来最低水平，如果剔除春节因素，则是2009年12月以来新低。

A textile enterprises in hangzhou, zhejiang province, said an official with the ministry of foreign trade，At present many order form is short single and small single，Customer demand a severe，Profit is almost zero，bags、Footwear -highly traditional advantage in export industry growth decline sharply。But the reporter understands，And part of the products keep the relative advantage，Export growth does not drop back increase，For example the first seven months of this year furniture and parts exports reached 28.1% growth，Growth than the same period last year increased by 14.9%。However, the new export growth is still not obvious formation，July foreign trade overall performance continued to slump，In July China exports only 1% year-on-year growth，Than respectively may and June rise a drop of 14% and 10%，For six months to the lowest level，If to eliminate the Spring Festival factors，It is a new low since December 2009。

　　未来不确定性陡增

The future uncertainty spurt

　　国务院总理温家宝日前在广东省广州、佛山、东莞等地调研时指出，从新出口订单指数等先行指标看，下一阶段出口仍将面临较多困难和不确定性，对此要高度重视。上周汇丰银行公布的数据显示，受外需拖累8月汇丰制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）预览值下滑至47.8%，其中显示外需状况的新出口订单指数跌至2009年3月以来最低。

The state council premier wen jiabao recently in guangzhou, guangdong province、foshan、Dongguan and other places is pointed out that research，New export orders index, forward-looking indicators to see，The next stage export will face more difficulties and uncertainty，This should attach great importance to。Last week HSBC bank figures showed，Now drag by August HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers' index（PMI）Preview value decline to 47.8%，Now the new situation which shows that export orders index fell to the lowest since March 2009。

　　商务部新闻发言人沈丹阳在近期召开的例行记者会上也表示，受欧债危机持续升级、全球经济复苏乏力等外部因素影响，可以预计下半年中国外贸形势将更加严峻，遇到的困难将更加凸显，工作任务将更加艰巨，要实现全年进出口总额增长10%左右的预期目标面临的压力将更大。 

Commerce ministry spokesman said in a recent ShenDanYang held a regular press conference also said，By the debt crisis continued to upgrade、The global economic recovery, such as the lack external factors，Can be expected in the second half of China's foreign trade situation will be more severe，Difficulties will become more prominent，Work task will be much tougher，In order to realize the total import and export volume growth around 10% of the expected target face the pressure will be greater。 

　　三季度成全年出口关键期

Third quarter into annual export critical period

　　温家宝指出，三季度是实现全年出口增长目标的关键时期，要有针对性地采取措施推动出口稳定增长，下一步，将继续落实和完善稳定出口政策。加快出口退税进度，确保及时退税。扩大出口信用保险规模，提高出口信用保险覆盖面并严格执行检验收费减免政策，立即组织涉及外贸企业收费情况全面检查，取消不合理、不合法收费项目，切实减轻企业负担。加快转变外贸发展方式并积极扩大进口，妥善应对贸易摩擦，坚持积极有效利用外资等。

Wen jiabao pointed out that，The third quarter is to achieve annual export growth in the key period of target，Want to have pointed to take measures to promote stable export growth，The next step，Will continue to implement and improve the stable export policy。Speed up the progress of the export tax rebate，Ensure timely tax refund。Expand the export credit insurance scale，Improve the export credit insurance coverage and strictly implement the inspection fee reduction policy，Immediately organization involved in foreign trade enterprise charge thorough check，Do not cancel the reasonable、Illegal charging projects，To reduce the burden on enterprises。Accelerate transformation of the foreign trade development mode and actively expand imports，Properly deal with trade friction，Adhere to the positive and effective use of foreign capital, etc。

　　商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院国际市场研究部副主任白明表示，在前7个月外贸表现离年初目标较远的情况下，三季度被寄予厚望，相关政策保持了连续性，也意味着今后相关政策还有进一步优惠空间。在兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委看来，外贸不景气除“外需疲软”外，更受到人民币实际有效汇率偏高的抑制。建议未来三年逐步宣布扩大人民币汇率波幅区间，保护国内经济少受冲击。

The ministry of commerce international trade and economic cooperation research institute international market research, deputy director of the bai Ming said，In the first seven months of the foreign trade performance early from target far cases，The third quarter is expected，Relevant policy to keep the continuity，Also means that future related policy and further preferential space。In the industrial bank chief economist commissar lu looks，Foreign trade depression in addition to“Weak now”outside，Is more RMB real effective exchange rate on the high side of inhibition。Suggest the future three years gradually announce expansion of RMB exchange rate volatility interval，Protect domestic economy less influenced by impact。