专家分析指出中国可能维持出口低速增长

Expert analysis pointed out that China could maintain export low speed growth

　　日前，中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理温家宝在广东省调研时，对稳定外需、加快贸易转型强调了五点意见。相关贸易企业应该如何提振出口？专家分析指出，中国出口低速增长还会维持一段时间，估计今年全年和明年低速增长的压力都会较大。

a，The standing committee of CCCPC political bureau、The state council premier wen jiabao research in guangdong province，Now to stable、To speed up the trade transformation emphasizes the five opinions。Related trade enterprises should how to boost exports？Expert analysis points out that，China's export low speed growth is likely to maintain a period of time，It is estimated that this year and next year low growth pressure will be greater。

　　新兴市场贸易形势对我国影响很大

Emerging market trade situation to influence in our country

　　统计数据显示，今年1~7月份中国出口增长7.8%，7月份当月同比增长1%，环比跌幅10.3%。我国出口变化背后的直接原因并不陌生：据欧盟统计局中旬发布的数据，今年二季度欧元区经济环比萎缩0.2%，同比则萎缩0.4%；同时我国海关数据显示，1~7月中国对欧盟出口同比下降3.6%。而欧美向来是我国出口的第一和第二大市场。

Statistics show，This year 1 ~ 7 months China's export growth of 7.8%，In July the year-on-year growth of 1%，Link or 10.3%。Our export change the direct reason behind is not new：According to the European Union in the middle of bureau of statistics data released，In the second quarter of this year the economy of the euro area link atrophy 0.2%，The 0.4% year-on-year atrophy；At the same time, China's customs data display，1 ~ 7 months China's exports to Europe 3.6% year-on-year drop。And Europe and the United States have been our export first and second largest market。

　　商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院研究员梅新育（微博）昨天对本报记者表示，新兴市场经济体经历了年初的强劲反弹之后，从3月下旬开始震荡。“新兴市场经济体贸易形势对我国的影响也很大。”梅新育指出。

The ministry of commerce international trade and economic cooperation research institute researcher MeiXinYu（Micro bo）To our reporter said yesterday，Emerging market economies experienced strong rebound at the beginning of the year after，From late march start concussion。“Emerging market economy trade situation on China's influence is very big also。”MeiXinYu pointed out that。

　　联合国经济与社会事务部全球经济监测中心主任洪平凡昨天对本报记者表示，中国的出口增长速度是与世界贸易增长速度相一致的，甚至略高于世界贸易增长，所以出口增长放缓的首要原因是遭遇世界经济下行周期。

The United Nations department of economic and social affairs, director of the center for global economic monitoring flood plain to our reporter said yesterday，China's export growth rate is and the world trade growth rate consistent，Even slightly higher than the world trade growth，So the leading cause of export growth slowed were in the world economy downward cycle。

　　人民币升值削弱出口企业竞争力

The appreciation of the renminbi weaken the export competitiveness of enterprises

　　洪平凡分析指出，中国的劳动力成本近年来上升很快，与孟加拉国、越南等国家相比，一些低端产业已经失去了竞争力。另外，如果算上通胀因素，自2005年汇改以来人民币对美元大幅升值，这大大减少了中国出口企业的利润，削弱了中国出口企业的竞争力。

Analysis shows that the flood plain，China's labor costs rose quickly in recent years，And Bangladesh、Vietnam and other countries，Some low-end industry has lost competitiveness。In addition，If you count the inflation factor，Since 2005, the dollar since the exchange to rise sharply，This greatly reduces the need to China's export enterprise's profit，Weakened China's export the enterprise the competitive ability。

　　美国IDC集团全球总监郭杰群昨天对本报记者表示：依靠高能耗、低产值劳动密集型、低技术含量的发展模式需要转型。“其实一批企业该倒闭的还是要倒闭。”郭杰群指出。此外，中国企业应该更加专注于本专业领域，降低投机性，否则，即便人民币的汇率波动幅度放宽，企业也可能利用更多的自主空间来进行更大的投机。

The United States IDC group global director GuoJieQun to our reporter said yesterday：Rely on high energy consumption、Low value of labor intensive、Low technical content of development model transformation needs。“In fact a batch of enterprise the collapse or to close down。”GuoJieQun pointed out that。In addition，Chinese enterprises should be more focus on the professional field，Reduce speculative，otherwise，Even if the RMB exchange rate fluctuation range to relax，Enterprise may also use more independent space for more speculative。

　　明年出口压力仍较大

Next outlet pressure is still large

　　梅新育预计，中国出口低速增长还会维持一段时间，估计今年全年和明年低速增长的压力都还会比较大。尤其需要关注的是，在次贷危机和美欧主权债务危机之后，新兴市场的震荡会不会发展成为第三轮世界性经济金融危机？自从去年下半年以来，新兴市场经济体宏观经济运行波动剧烈，货币对美元汇率大幅度贬值。虽然今年头两个半月其货币汇率和资本流入一度出现反弹，但从3月下旬起就再度逆转，即使“金砖国家”这样的热门新兴市场经济体也未能幸免。

MeiXinYu is expected to，China's export low speed growth is likely to maintain a period of time，It is estimated that this year and next year the pressure of low growth are also is bigger。Especially concern is，In the subprime mortgage crisis and the American and European sovereign debt crisis later，The oscillation of the emerging markets will become the third round of global economic and financial crisis？Since the latter half of last year，Emerging market economy operation of macro economy fluctuation intense，Currencies against the us dollar exchange rate depreciation greatly。Although the first two and a half months its currency exchange rate and capital inflow once rebounded，But from late march again since reversal，Even if“Nuggets countries”Such a popular emerging market economies were not spared。

　　郭杰群也认为，只要欧洲经济不恢复，在现有模式下，中国出口难以为继。即使加大对第三世界国家的出口，其贸易规模也无法替代欧盟。

GuoJieQun also think，As long as the European economic recovery，In the current mode，China's export unsustainable。Even if to increase the export of the third world countries，Its trade scale also can replace the European Union。

　　出口信用保险业务支持小微企业

Export credit insurance business support small micro enterprise

　　中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理温家宝近日在广东省调研时强调，要扩大出口信用保险规模，提高出口信用保险覆盖面，特别要注意发展对小微企业的信用保险，引入商业保险公司开展短期险业务试点，落实好大型成套设备出口融资保险专项安排。而据中国出口信用保险公司（下简称“中信保”）透露，目前广东省已出台80%的保费补贴政策，中山、江门等地市已在此基础上，分别又出台了10%保费补贴政策。

The standing committee of CCCPC political bureau、The state council premier wen jiabao recently in guangdong province stressed research，To expand the scale of export credit insurance，Improve the export credit insurance coverage，Special attention should be paid to development of small micro enterprise credit insurance，Introducing commercial insurance companies to carry out short-term risk business pilot，Implementation of large complete sets of equipment export financing insurance special arrangement。And according to China's export credit insurance company（Next referred to as“Citic insurance”）revealed，At present, guangdong province has already issued 80% premium subsidy policy，zhongshan、Jiangmen cities such as has been based on this，Respectively and issued a 10% premium subsidy policy。

　　据了解，目前，出口信用保险业务主要是由中信保经营承保的政策性保险，其他财产险公司主要经营国内的一些信用保险业务。据中信保广东分公司相关负责人介绍，针对广东省2011年海关出口额在300万美元以下的小微出口企业，中信保广东分公司专门推出“小微企业信保易”，保障范围主要包括买方破产、无力偿付债务等商业风险和买方所在国家发生战争、贸易管制、外汇管制等政治风险。单一买方最高可赔付10万美元，赔偿比例最高可达80%。

It is understood，At present，Export credit insurance business is mainly composed of citic insurance business insurance policy insurance，Other property company mainly manages the domestic some credit insurance business。According to citic the guangdong branch relevant controller introduces，According to guangdong province 2011 customs export under $3 million little micro export enterprise，Citic the guangdong branch launched special“Small micro enterprise believe the easy”，The scope of protection mainly includes the buyer bankruptcy、Failure debt, business risk and the buyer's country war、Restraint of trade、Foreign exchange control and political risk。A single buyer's highest can pay $100000，Compensation ratio highest can amount to 80%。

　　数据显示，中信保广东分公司2009年~2011年3年累计支持企业向新兴市场出口225亿美元。据介绍，截至目前，中信保广东分公司已与全省30余家重点企业合作，累计承保总金额超过200亿美元。

Data display，Citic the guangdong branch 2009 ~ 2011 3 years accumulated support enterprise to emerging market exports and 22.5 billion dollars。According to introducing，So far，Citic the guangdong branch already and the province more than 30 key enterprise cooperation，Accumulative total amount insured more than $20 billion。

　　为贯彻落实“扩进口促平衡”发展战略，中国信保广东分公司今年将通过进口预付款保险和“进口保理”等产品，支持外贸企业在进口时采用“赊购”方式交易。

In order to thoroughly implement the“Expanding import promote balance”Development strategy，Chinese believe the guangdong branch this year will through the import advance insurance and“Import factoring”And other products，Support foreign trade enterprise in import when used“credit”Style trading。

　　出口产品采用零税率缓解出口增长困难

Export product adopts investigation ease export growth difficulties

　　郭杰群认为，目前提出出口产品采用零税率降低了出口产品价格，但中国出口产品如果仍是低端低附加值产品，那么这种做法无法对中国出口有本质改善。洪平凡也表示，增加出口退税率是很多国家常用的应对全球经济危机的办法，这将会缓解出口增长困难，但效果有限，因为目前是世界对商品的需求下降了，价格的相对低廉很难弥补这一缺口。

GuoJieQun think，At present the export product adopts investigation is put forward to reduce the price of export products，But China's export products, if is still low low value-added products，So this kind of practice cannot exports to China are essential to improve。Flood ordinary also said，Increase the export tax rebate rate is many countries commonly used to deal with the global economic crisis way，This would ease export growth difficulties，But the effect co., LTD.,，Because now is the world's demand for goods dropped，Prices are relatively cheap it is difficult to make up the shortfall。

　　梅新育则认为提振出口可以从以下方面着手：第一，帮助贸易伙伴的经济站稳。在安全、流动、收益的前提下，对欧洲实施救援对中国是必要的，也是有利的。第二，落实稳定出口的财税和金融政策。比如零增值税出口如何防止骗税？如何防范应对被贸易伙伴指为违规补贴？第三，加快落实援外计划，用对外援助等工具拉动出口和海外工程承包。此外，需要耐心“熬”。

MeiXinYu argue that can boost exports from the following aspects：The first，Help trade partners stand economy。In the security、flow、Under the premise of income，Implementation of China to Europe rescue is necessary，Is also advantageous。The second，Implement stable export of fiscal and financial policy。Such as zero value added tax export how to prevent tax fraud？How to prevent to be trading partner means for illegal subsidies？The third，To speed up the implementation plan care，Foreign aid with tools such as pull exports and overseas project contracting。In addition，Need patience“boil”。

　　洪平凡则强调，中国提振经济应该立足于国内需求。虽然恶劣的国际需求形势可以逼迫出口企业进行产业结构调整，从低端向高端升级，但这并不是短期内即可实现的。此外，现在品牌可以属于某一个国家的企业，但是各个部件却是由多国生产的。“中国企业要想清楚，是要专注于生产飞机、汽车的哪一个部件，而不是决定主要生产飞机或是汽车。”洪平凡说。 

Flood plain is emphasized，China should boost economy based on domestic demand。Although the bad international demand situation will be forced to export enterprises in industrial structure adjustment，From low to high upgrade，But this is not the short term of can be realized。In addition，Now the brand belongs to a certain country enterprise，But each component is the production of nations。“Chinese companies want to clear，Is to focus on the production of the plane、The car which a unit，Not decided the main production the aircraft or car。”Flood ordinary said。