8月总结：窄幅盘整

August summary:Narrow consolidation

　　供应方面

supply

　　8月两大集团原油日加工负荷环比上涨1.63%，8月国内炼厂液化气产量在上半月有所增加，但下半月略有回落；进口方面，进口成本较之7月上涨，但内销存利润空间，8月份进口量环比增加19.16%。出口方面，因9月进口成本高涨，出口商出口意愿平平，8月出口环比减少15.65%。

August two big group, crude oil processing load link up 1.63%,August domestic refinery liquefied gas production in the first half has increased,But the second half fell slightly;Import aspects,Compared with the cost of imports in July,But domestic save profit space,August imports chain increased by 19.16%.export,Because of the high cost of imports of September,Exporters export intend to go,August export link reduced by 15.65%.

　　8月，国内液化气日均供应量环比微幅减少；ICIS C1数据显示，8月份全国主要炼厂液化气日均商品量较7月份减少0.8%或351吨，同时因8月与7月天数相同，8月总产量较7月份有所减少，但8月下旬开始供应渐增。8月31日全国液化气日均商品量为45410吨。

August,Domestic liquefied gas daily supply chain slightly reduced;ICIS C1 data display,In August the national main refinery liquefied gas during daily is July reduced by 0.8% or 351 tons,At the same time because August and July days the same,August output is decreased in July,But late August began increasing supply.August 31, the national average gas during for 45410 tons.

　　8月，进口气到岸量增多。国家能源网www.cmen.cc8月CP虽上涨，但进口气内销存在利润空间，且码头担忧9月成本继续上扬，加之前期库存消耗，因而8月采购积极性高涨。ICIS C1船期显示，8月国内冷冻货进口量为53.66万吨，环比增加19.16%。

August,Imported gas cif quantity increase.National energy network on www.cmen.cc8 CP is rising,But import gas sale in domestic market existence profit space,And terminal concerns September costs continue to rise,Together with the inventory consumption,Thus August purchasing high enthusiasm.ICIS C1 shipping date display,August domestic air-cooled cargo imports for 536600 tons,Link increased by 19.16%.

　　需求方面

demand

　　刚性需求来看，8月全国仍处于夏季，且经济大形势欠佳，国内传统市场需求同比2011年减少，而基于9月仍有成品油上调预期，深加工企业开工率表现尚可；投机需求方面，8月国内价格已至相对合理价位，且9月市场走势未明，贸易商投机心态谨慎。ICIS C1预测，中国2012年8月液化气表观消费量约232.2万吨，环比增加8.91%。

Rigid demand to see,August is still in the summer,And the great poor situation,Traditional domestic market demand to reduce year-on-year in 2011,And based on September there are still product raised expectations,Deep processing enterprise starts performance fair;Speculative demand,August domestic price already to relatively reasonable price,On September market trends and unknown,Traders speculative mentality care.ICIS C1 prediction,China in August 2012, liquefied gas apparent consumption of about 2.322 million tons,Link increased by 8.91%.

　　价格方面

price

　　8月一方面终端需求不足利空，另一方面国内产量不高，且进口成本高企利好，两厢角逐之下，国内液化气市场价格频繁震荡盘整，且上下空间不大，8月价格小幅涨跌，仅西北国产气月度估价环比小跌57.5元/吨外，其余市场均为小涨，涨幅在25-267.5元/吨不等。ICIS C1估价显示，8月31日价格较7月31日，华南上涨140元/吨，华东上涨267.5元/吨，华北上涨190元/吨。

August hand terminal demand bad,On the other hand, domestic production is not high,And the cost of imports high bullish,Double-box under competition,The domestic gas market price frequent shock consolidation,And up and down the space is not large,August prices drop slightly,Only the northwest domestic gas monthly appraisal link small fell 57.5 yuan/ton outside,The rest of the market are small rise,Or in the 25-267.5 yuan/ton inequality.ICIS C1 valuation display,August 31 price is July 31,,South China rose 140 yuan/ton,East China rose 267.5 yuan/ton,North China rose 190 yuan/ton.

　　9月影响因素

September influence factors

　　利好：

bullish:

　　9月两大集团原油加工量有所下降

September two big group crude runs declined

　　9月CP大涨，进口成本高位

September of CP,Import costs high

　　主要生产企业可能人为推价

The main production enterprise may human push price

　　成品油有上调预期，液化气出厂最高限价随之上调

Petroleum products have raised expectations,Liquefied gas factory ceiling price then raised

　　9月局部地区天气转冷，需求或有好转

September local cold weather,Demand or improved

　　市场可能有投机需求

The market may have speculative demand

　　利空：

bad:

　　9月液化气供应量预期有增加

September liquefied gas supply is expected to increase

　　国内进口码头进口气库存高位

Domestic import terminal import gas high inventory

　　整体终端需求依然不足

The whole terminal demand is still insufficient