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限制中日进出口贸易将致日本损失惨重--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-09-21

  随着中日钓鱼岛危机不断升级,中日经济关系也受到影响。日本央行行长19日表示,日本国内经济恢复的时间可能将比预期“推迟半年”。分析人士认为,这次由日方一手导演的收购钓鱼岛闹剧虽然导致两国出现直接军事对抗的可能性较小,但是在经济等其他层面的较量将会日趋激烈。

As the diaoyu island crisis escalated,Sino-japanese economic relations have also been affected.The bank of Japan governor 19 said,The Japanese domestic economic recovery time may be more than expected"Delayed half a year".Analysts believe that,The Japanese skill by the director's acquisition diaoyu islands farce although the two countries led to direct military confrontation appear less likely,But in the economic and other aspects of the competition will be increasingly fierce.

  中日两国经济互补性很强,两国之间的贸易合作对于各自国家的经济发展都起到了举足轻重的作用。但是,目前钓鱼岛问题导致两国关系持续紧张,已经严重影响了两国间包括经贸往来在内的各方面合作。日本央行行长白川方明19日表示,日本国内经济恢复的时期将比此前预期的2012年度上半年“推迟半年左右”,他还对日中关系有可能出现的长期恶化表示了担忧。日本经团联会长米仓弘昌18日也表示,两国民间人士辛辛苦苦建立起来的关系被一举推翻并出现恶化,甚是遗憾。他对日本政府将钓鱼岛进行所谓的国有化导致日中关系急剧恶化表示强烈不满。

The two countries' economies, the strong complementarity,Trade between the two countries for their cooperation in the development of national economy has played a pivotal role.but,At present diaoyu islands problems lead to continuous tense relations between the two countries,Have seriously affected the economic and trade exchanges between the two countries, including all aspects of cooperation.The bank of Japan governor BaiChuan FangMing 19 said,The Japanese domestic economic recovery period will than previously expected in the first half of 2012"Put off about half a year",He also to japan-china relations likely expressed concerns about the long-term deterioration.Japan JingTuanLian President m CangHongChang 18 also said,The two countries people have worked so hard to set up by the relationship between every overthrown and worsened,Is very sorry to.He to the Japanese government will diaoyu islands a nationalization of japan-china relations to worsen sharply expressed strong dissatisfaction.

  分析人士认为,由于日方拒不承认钓鱼岛主权存在争议,拒绝放弃其错误立场,中日两国的友好大局受到严重破坏和挑战。两国关系一旦交恶,必将首先在经济领域进行较量,中方可能会从三个方面出手制约日本。

Analysts believe that,Because Japan refused to accept diaoyu islands sovereignty dispute,Refuse to give up the wrong position,Relations between the two countries friendly situation are destroyed seriously and challenges.Once the bad relations between the two countries,The first will be available in the economic field,The Chinese may be shot from three aspects that constrain Japan.

  第一,对日本在华投资企业进行制裁。长期以来,中国巨大的消费市场和便宜的劳动力吸引了很多日本企业争相来华投资设厂,据有关统计显示,截至2012年6月末,日本对华投资839.7亿美元,来华投资的日本企业以制造业为主,约占70%左右,其次是化学纤维业,食品等。日本在华企业属于中国法人,他们雇佣中方人员,在中国采购物资,在中国纳税,除了将经营利润汇往国外,这些日企和一般的中国企业没有什么两样。此外,近年来中国大陆的劳务工资出现大幅度上涨,加上很多地方都取消了对外资企业的优惠政策,日本企业出现了将其中国工厂向东南亚等地转移的势头。但是,由于中国的巨大市场,加上员工素质相对东南亚等国来说较高,很多日本企业还是保留了在中国的研发中心等关键部门。而研发部门留在中国,对于中国经济的发展和科技实力的提升是大有好处的。所以,对日本在华投资企业进行制裁明显弊大于利。

The first,Investment in China to Japan enterprise sanctions.For a long time,China's huge consumer market and cheap labor has attracted a lot of Japanese enterprises to invest in China,According to the statistics show,By the end of June 2012,Japan's $83.97 billion investment in China,Investments in China by Japanese enterprise specializing in manufacture,About 70% or so,The second is chemical fiber industry,food.Japan enterprise in China belongs to Chinese legal person,They hire Chinese personnel,In China's procurement,In China's tax,In addition to business profits remitted abroad,These day of look and general Chinese enterprise nothing out of the ordinary.In addition,In recent years China labor wage appear risen sharply,Add a lot of places to the cancellation of a foreign-capital enterprise preferential policies,Japan enterprise appeared its factories in China to southeast Asia transfer of momentum.but,Because of China's huge market,Plus staff quality relative countries such as southeast Asia is higher,Many Japanese enterprise or retained in China's research and development center, and other key departments.The research and development department in China,For the development of China's economy and science and technology strength of ascension is of great advantage.so,Investment in China to Japan enterprise sanctions obviously do more harm than good.

  第二,限制中日进出口贸易。据日本海关数据显示,今年上半年日本对华货物出口737.2亿美元,占货物出口总额的18%。日本进口中国货物913.4亿美元,占总进口的20.5%。相比之下说明,日本对中国的经济依赖更大。另外,中国主要向日本出口低附加值产品,这在供应链上产生的利润很低,而日本对华出口的一般是产业链上游产品,利润较高。这意味着在承担出口损失的能力上,中国远超日本。分析人士认为,中日进出口贸易曾在2003年帮助日本避免又一场经济衰退的过程中发挥了关键作用,而且自2003年以来向日本的经济增长贡献了35%-80%的推动力。如果在中日进出口贸易上入手,对日本采取制裁,日本损失将十分惨重。

The second,Japan limits the import and export trade.According to the Japanese customs data display,In the first half of this year Japan China exported us $73.72 billion worth of goods,Accounted for 18% of the total amount of export goods.Japan imports goods China $91.34 billion,Accounts for 20.5% of the total imports.Compared to explain,Japan to China's economy depends on more.In addition,China's main export to Japan low value-added products,The profits arising in supply chain is very low,Japan exports is the general industrial chain upstream products,Profit higher.This means that in the loss of the ability to undertake export,China far above Japan.Analysts believe that,The import and export trade was in 2003 to help Japan and avoid a recession has played a critical role in this process,Furthermore, since 2003 to the economic growth of Japan contributed to a 35% - 80% of the driving force.If in the import and export trade of the,To Japanese sanctions,Japan loss would be very heavy.

  第三,打日本债务牌。日本庞大的政府债务显著增加,截至去年末,日本主权债务突破1000万亿日元,是GDP的2.2倍。根据日本财务省和央行数据,截至2011年底,中国持有日本长短期国债18万亿日元,同比增长71%。2010年中国已成为日本最大债权国。分析人士认为,由于日本国债处境危险,能挽救日本经济的似乎只有中国,中国可利用这一点,采取最有效的方式对日制裁。

The third,Japan's debt to play CARDS.Japan's huge government debt increased significantly,The proceedings,Japan sovereign debt breakthrough 1 quadrillion yen,GDP is 2.2 times.According to Japan's finance ministry and central bank data,By the end of 2011,China has Japan short-term national debt 18 trillion yen,Year-on-year growth of 71%.In 2010, China has become the largest creditor nation.Analysts believe that,Because the Japanese national debt in danger,Can save the Japanese economy seems to be the only Chinese,China can use it,To take the most effective way for day sanctions.



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