全球制造业的新一轮调整正在布局，而放眼未来5到10年，欧美的“再工业化”会不会带来制造业的重新崛起?中国制造业会不会失去关键一席?而东南亚近邻又能否在制造业链条上产生质的变化?为此，本报专访了国家发展和改革委员会对外经济研究所所长张燕生、商务部研究院外资研究部主任马宇以及中国社科院工业经济研究所研究员曹建海，诊脉未来全球制造业的发展轨迹。

The new round of global manufacturing adjustment are layout,And in the next five to 10 years,Europe and America"To industrialization"Will bring manufacturing to rise?The Chinese manufacturing industry will lose key a mat?And southeast Asian neighbors and in manufacturing chain can produce a qualitative change?therefore,Our newspaper interviews with the national development and reform commission of foreign economic institute director ZhangYanSheng/The ministry of commerce of the director of research institute of foreign capital MaYu and by the Chinese academy of social sciences researcher at the institute of industrial economy CaoJianHai,Feel the pulse future global manufacturing development track.

　　问：您认为未来5~10年，全球制造业会发生哪些变化?

ask:Do you think the next 5 ~ 10 years,What changes would happen global manufacturing?

　　张燕生：未来在全球制造业领域，高端制造业的竞争会愈来愈激烈，欧美走向“制造业回归”;中国将从中低端制造业往高端发展;日韩也会加强高端制造业。在中低端制造业上，迫于成本压力，企业会向人力、土地等成本更低的地方转移，比如向中国的中西部或成本更低的东南亚地区。

ZhangYanSheng:In the future global manufacturing field,Advanced manufacturing competition will become more and more fierce,Europe and the United States to"Manufacturing regression";China will from low-end manufacturing to high-end development;Japan and South Korea will also strengthen advanced manufacturing.In ZhongDiDuan manufacturing,Under cost pressure,Enterprise to the human/Such as land costs are lower,Such as to China's middle and western or cost lower southeast Asia.

　　问：欧美一直在呼吁制造业回归，实现“再工业化”，这一目标能否实现?欧美的“再工业化”主要将集中在哪些领域?

ask:Europe and the United States has been calling for manufacturing regression,realize"To industrialization",This goal can be realized?Europe and America"To industrialization"Main will focus on what areas?

　　张燕生：“再工业化”是欧美的一个长远目标，金融危机证明了过度依赖虚拟经济、实体经济不振是行不通的，现在欧美国家都认识到了这一点，所以呼吁制造业回归。未来欧美将通过加强高端制造业，如新信息技术、飞机制造、新能源等领域，依靠创新，达到重振制造业的目的。一些欧美国家已经出台了这些领域的产业规划，成功的关键是打造新的工业化模式，抢占科技和模式的制高点。

ZhangYanSheng:"To industrialization"Europe and the United States is a long-term goal,Financial crisis proved that the excessive dependence on virtual economy/The entity economic malaise is impracticable,Now the European and American countries have realized this point,So called for manufacturing regression.The future will be in Europe and America by strengthening the advanced manufacturing,Such as new information technology/aircraft/New energy, etc,Depends on innovation,To revive the purpose of manufacturing industry.Some European and American countries have introduced these areas of industry planning,The key to success is to make the new industrialization mode,Take science and technology and the commanding heights of the model.

　　曹建海：过去几年里，虽然美国也实行了三轮货币宽松政策，但和中国不同，美国的物价水平和劳动力价格水平还处在一个非常稳定的状况，甚至在一定程度上还有所下降，美国制造业的环境一定程度上与过去相比变好了。而且相对于东南亚等国，美国的市场更完善，配套设施完善，具有更大优势。美国制造业可能要重新崛起。

CaoJianHai:The past few years,Although the United States also implemented three monetary easing,But China and different,America's price level and the labor force price level is still in a very stable status,Even in a certain extent is down,The United States manufacturing environment to a certain extent, compared with the past changing for the better.And relative in south east Asia and other countries,The American market more perfect,Facilities perfect,With greater advantage.The United States manufacturing is likely to rise again.

　　马宇：美国不仅是提出了要“再工业化”，而且美国政策也是非常有效的。美国可以计算出在美国制造和在其他国家生产的成本差，然后制定相应政策，通过税收优惠来填补部分差额。今年初，波士顿咨询公司调查了106家年销售额不低于10亿美元的跨国公司，其中有37%考虑要把部分制造业务迁回美国，而这其中，有相当部分原来是在中国制造的。美国政策的效果可见一斑。虽然美国的制造业在经济中所占的比重可能不会像过去一样多，但对于美国来说，制造业很小的一点提升，对经济的帮助会很大。

MaYu:The United States is not only puts forward to"To industrialization",And the United States policy is very effective.The United States can be calculated in the United States and in other countries made the cost of producing difference,Then formulate corresponding policies,Through the tax preference to fill part balance.Earlier this year,Boston consulting company investigated 106 annual sales of not less than $1 billion multinational companies,37% is considering to take part QianHui the United States manufacturing business,And this among them,There are quite a part of it is made in China.The United States policy effect is obvious.Although the United States manufacturing in the proportion of the economy may not like as much in the past,But for the us,Manufacturing small a little ascension,On the economy will be of great help.

　　问：“中国制造”将呈现怎样的格局?主要的变量是什么?

ask:"Made in China"How will present the pattern?The main variable is what?

　　曹建海：这一轮的制造业调整中，最大的特征就是逃离中国大陆。中国的制造业将面临一个巨大的影响，减速是必然的，如果严重，甚至在部分地区可能会出现负增长的状况。中国的制造业要素，比如土地和劳动力成本，在过去几年稳增长政策中出现了急剧的上涨，甚至翻了一番，而且这种上涨看不到回落，中国对欧美国家制造业成本优势很大程度上丧失掉了。另外，中国制造业主要是代工企业，多年里并没有形成自己的核心竞争力，随着外部冲击的影响，中国制造业在全球的地位可能会被动摇。

CaoJianHai:This round of adjustment of manufacturing industry,The biggest characteristic is to escape from mainland China.China's manufacturing industry will face a huge impact,Reduction is inevitable,If serious,Even in some areas may appear negative growth condition.China's manufacturing elements,Such as land and Labour costs,In the past few years steady growth policy appeared rising sharply,Even doubled,And the rise see back,China to the European and American countries manufacturing cost advantage largely lost lost.In addition,China's manufacturing industry is mainly foundry enterprise,For many years there was no form their own core competitiveness,With the influence of external shocks,The Chinese manufacturing industry in the global position may be moved.

　　马宇：中国不会扮演发达国家或新兴发达国家在国际产业转移中扮演的角色，仅仅充当产业转移的一个梯级。中国的制造业仍有巨大的发展潜力和承载空间——除非我们自己限制自己。目前制造业企业的外迁对中国来说还比较小。随着某些外商投资制造业项目或者订单的转移，部分民营企业陷入经营困境也是必然的。但中国市场的空间比较大，目前的形势并不能说明中国制造业的优势削弱甚至丧失，中国的竞争优势是长期的：庞大且优质的劳动力资源，完整的产业链和雄厚的产业基础、巨大的国内市场。中国是永久的世界制造业基地。

MaYu:China will not play the developed countries or emerging developed countries in the international industrial transfer, the role of,Just as a series of industrial transfer.China's manufacturing industry is still have great potential of development and carrying space - unless we restrict themselves.At present enterprise outsourcing of manufacturing industry of China is still relatively small.With some foreign investment in manufacturing project or the transfer of order,Part of the private enterprise in management dilemma is inevitable.But the Chinese market the space is large,The present situation and can't explain the advantages of China's manufacturing industry weakened or even lose,China's competitive advantage is long:Huge labor resources and quality,Complete industry chain and strong industrial base/Huge domestic market.China is a permanent world manufacturing base.

　　张燕生：中国制造业的变量主要还是成本，成本上升导致出口竞争力下降。未来的发展方向，则是在国家提出的七个战略新兴产业，还有现代服务业。

ZhangYanSheng:China's manufacturing variable is main or cost,Cost rises bring about falling export competitiveness.The future development direction,It is in the country put forward seven strategy emerging industry,And modern service industry.

　　问：东南亚国家的低成本优势近年来吸引了一部分曾经在中国的制造业企业，东南亚会不会成为新的制造业热土，并带动东南亚经济进入快速发展阶段?

ask:Southeast Asian countries low cost advantage in recent years to attract a part of ever in China's manufacturing enterprise,Southeast Asia will become the new hot manufacturing,And drive the southeast Asia economy enters a fast development stage?

　　曹建海：东南亚的部分国家可能会热起来，但这需要一个成长过程，东南亚国家的总体配套设施相对比较差，国内市场还需要培育，并不是所有的制造业都会迁去东南亚。东南亚国家会占领部分中国制造业因为成本的上升、人民币升值等丢掉的市场，但东南亚国家经济能否健康、快速发展关键得看东南亚国家的政策，尤其是房地产政策。东南亚需要吸取美国、日本和中国的教训。

CaoJianHai:Part of the southeast Asia countries are likely to warm up,But this need a growth process,Southeast Asia country's overall facilities is relatively poor,The domestic market also need to develop,Not all manufacturing will move to southeast Asia.Southeast Asian countries will capture of a portion of China's manufacturing industry because the cost of rising/The appreciation of the renminbi and the market lost,But the southeast Asian countries can be healthy/The rapid development of the key depends on the policy of the southeast Asian countries,Especially the real estate policy.Southeast Asia needs to learn from the United States/Japan and China's lessons.

　　马宇：东南亚国家不可能替代中国的地位，除了成本低外，在其他方面东南亚国家都无法与中国匹敌。现在从中国转移到东南亚国家的基本都是劳动力密集型企业，且都是产业链不够深的行业，毕竟东南亚的产业链还不完善。

MaYu:Southeast Asian countries could not replace the position of China,In addition to the low cost,In other respects southeast Asia countries are not equal with China.Now from China to southeast Asia countries transfer basic it is labor intensive enterprise,And are industrial chain is not deep enough industry,After all, southeast Asia industry chain is not perfect.

　　问：制造业格局的变化会怎样影响不同区域的经济?又会给全球经济带来什么影响?

ask:Manufacturing pattern changes will be how to affect different regional economic?And will give what impact the global economy?

　　张燕生：其实现在也有人质疑欧美“再工业化”将怎样实现，目前很多方法都是通过贸易保护形式实现的，这也是全球的一个新挑战。美国呼吁资本撤回本土，强调实业救国，这样的形势看起来更像是搞区域化，而不是搞全球化，造成贸易冲突和区域化冲突压力都很大。美国要区域化不要全球化的表现最突出是在2008年美国高调加入泛太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定(TPP)，这一协定主要针对亚太地区国家，美国加入之后，澳大利亚、秘鲁、越南、马来西亚等国家都纷纷加入，日本正在谈判。对中国来讲，如何应对这种挑战，我认为还是要坚持全球化，坚持改革开放，反对贸易保护主义，具体来说就是落实海峡两岸经济合作框架协议(EC-FA)，建成中日韩自由贸易区，在经济体制上与国际标准接轨，利用这一轮的全球经济变局推动改革开放进一步发展。

ZhangYanSheng:In fact now also some question the Europe and the United States"To industrialization"Will how to realize,At present a lot of method is through the trade protection form of realization,This also is the global a new challenge.The United States called for capital withdraw local,Emphasis on industrial salvation,The situation looks more like make regionalization,Rather than make globalization,Cause trade conflicts and regional conflicts are of great pressure.The United States to regional don't globalization is the most outstanding performance in 2008 the United States high-profile join Pacific rim strategic economic partnership agreement(TPP),The agreement is aimed at the asia-pacific region,After the United States entered,Australia/Peru/Vietnam/Malaysia and other countries all have flocked to join,Japan is negotiations.Will tell to China,How to deal with such a challenge,I think that will keep on globalization,Persist in reform and opening up,Against trade protectionism,Specifically is carry out cross-strait economic cooperation framework agreement(EC - FA),In the China, Japan and South Korea free trade area,In the economic system and international standards,Use of this round of global economic upheavals promote the further development of reform and opening up.