人们普遍担心中国经济的增长前景，更期待拉动中国经济增长的新动力出现。未来5-10年，中国经济增长的新动力究竟来自何处？

People widespread concern about China's economic growth prospects,More looking forward to pull in the growth of China's economy in the new.The next 5 to 10 years,China's economic growth different from where on earth?

　　笔者认为：目前中国经济正处于结构调整、增长模式转变和寻找增长新动力的关键时期，如在相关领域着力推动改革和调整，中国经济将在新的增长路径上实现可持续发展，未来5-10年应能保持7.5%左右的增长。中国经济增长的新动力将来自包括投资和消费在内的国内需求增长、民营和中小微企业发展、全要素生产率的提高、战略新兴产业和服务业的壮大以及中西部地区的赶超。

The author thinks that:China's economy is in structural adjustment/Growth pattern transformation and looking for the key period of the new growth,As in related fields to promote reform and adjustment,China's economy will be in the new growth path to realize the sustainable development,The next 5 to 10 years should be able to maintain the growth of around 7.5%.China's economic growth will come from different including investment and consumption, the domestic demand growth/Private and small and medium-sized micro enterprise development/Total factor productivity/Strategy emerging industry and service industry expanding and parts of the Midwest's catch up.

　　首先，从需求角度看，中国经济增长的新动力将来自国内需求特别是国内消费需求。

First of all,From the perspective of demand,China's economic growth will be different from domestic demand especially domestic consumption demand.

　　由于目前全球主要发达国家经济处于轻度衰退或缓慢复苏之中，新兴市场经济国家（地区）增速也明显放慢，国外需求将在中长期陷入疲软状态，再加上本币升值、劳动力成本和环境成本上升影响，中国的出口需求将很难实现前些年超过20%的增长，很有可能在今后5-10年处于个位数的较低增长。实现国际收支基本平衡的政策取向，也将促使净出口对经济增长的贡献处于可忽略的水平。

Due to the present global main developed country economy is in mild recession or slow of recovery,Emerging market economies(area)Growth is obvious to slow down,Foreign demand will in the medium and long-term into weak state,Plus a stronger currency/Labor cost and environment influence rising costs,China's export demand will be difficult to realize before some year growth of more than 20%,Very likely in the next five to 10 years in the lower single-digit growth.To realize basic equilibrium in the balance of payments policy orientation,Will also prompted net export to economic growth in the contribution of negligible level.

　　如此一来，中国经济增长将主要依靠国内投资和消费拉动。而伴随人口老龄化趋势加剧、收入分配更多地向居民倾斜以及政府在教育、卫生、医疗等社会保障领域投入力度的加大，中国的总储蓄率将有所下降而居民消费的比重将有所上升，消费（包括居民消费和政府消费）对经济增长的贡献率将逐步上升并超过投资的贡献率。为挖掘消费需求潜力、提高消费对经济增长的拉动作用，除加快户籍制度改革和收入分配制度改革外，政府还应继续加大对就业、教育、卫生、医疗、养老等社会保障领域的投入力度，加强对消费者权益的保护，改善消费环境和消费秩序，让更多的中低收入居民有能力消费，无后顾之忧消费，实现包容性增长、共享式增长。

so,China's economic growth will mainly rely on domestic investment and consumption.And with an aging population trend aggravate/Income distribution to more residents tilt and government in education/health/Medical care and other social security fields of investment increase,China's total savings rate will decline and the proportion of the consumption of the residents will be increased,consumption(Including consumer and government consumption)The contribution to economic growth will gradually rising and more than the contribution of investment.For digging the potential consumer demand/Raise consumption to economic growth driving role,In addition to speed up the reform of household registration system and the reform of the income distribution system,The government should also continue to strengthen the employment/education/health/medical/Pension and other social security areas of investment,Strengthen the protection of the rights and interests of consumers,Improving consumption environment and consumer order,Let more occur in low and middle-income residents have the ability to consumption,Do not have trouble back at home consumption,Realize inclusiveness growth/Shared growth.

　　其次，从投资需求的角度看，中国经济增长的新动力将来自民营和中小微企业。

secondly,From the perspective of investment demand,China's economic growth will be different from the private small and medium-sized and small enterprise.

　　民营和中小微企业将替代国有企业成为全社会固定资产投资的主体。未来5-10年，伴随促进民营和中小微企业发展政策的落实，其占全社会固定资产投资的比重还会上升。由于中国GDP的60%以上，专利创造的70%以上，新增就业的90%以上都是中小微企业创造的，中小微企业投资比重的上升将对投资结构的改善和投资效益的提高发挥重要作用,也有利于缓解就业压力、促进服务业发展。

Private small and medium-sized and small enterprise will replace the state-owned enterprise become the social fixed assets investment main body.The next 5 to 10 years,Along with promoting private small and medium-sized and small enterprise development policy implement,Which accounts for the social fixed assets investment proportion will also rise.Because China's more than 60% of GDP,More than 70% of the patent creation,More than 90% of the new employment is small and medium-sized micro enterprise created,Small and medium-sized micro enterprise investment proportion will rise to the improvement of the investment structure and investment effectiveness play an important role,Also to help alleviate employment pressure/To promote the development of service industry.

　　为应对2008年爆发的全球金融危机，政府推出了4万亿投资刺激政策，重点投向铁路、公路、机场等所谓“铁公基”项目，这些政府引导的投资资金大多流向了国有大企业，而数量众多的中小企业却受益甚微。为促进民间投资和中小微企业发展，政府先后出台了“新36条”和相关实施细则，但真正落实到位还有许多难度。为此，需要转变政府职能、继续深化国有企业改革、加大《反垄断法》的执行力度，使中国经济增长更多地由民营企业和中小微企业拉动。

In response to the 2008 outbreak of the global financial crisis,The government launched 4 trillion investment stimulus policy,Key to the railway/highway/Airport and so on the so-called"Iron and base"project,These government guiding investment funds into the most state-owned big enterprise,And a large number of small and medium-sized enterprise but little benefit.To promote private investment in small and medium-sized and small enterprise development,The government has issued"Article 36 new"And the detailed rules for the implementation of related,But the real put in place and many of the difficulty.therefore,We need to change the functions of the government/Continue to deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises/increase[Antitrust law]Execution strength,To make China's economy growth more by private enterprises and small and medium-sized micro enterprise pull.

　　第三，从生产要素的角度看, 中国经济增长的新动力将来自全要素生产率的提高。

The third,From the perspective of production factors, China's economic growth will come from different total factor productivity.

　　据有关测算，改革开放30年来，资本对中国经济增长的贡献率最大，达50%左右；全要素生产率提高的贡献次之，为30%左右；劳动力对经济增长的贡献率最低，为20%左右。可以预计，由于人口老龄化的加剧，中国劳动力数量增速将明显减缓，其对经济增长的贡献将进一步下降。由于边际产出递减规律的作用，资本投入的边际产出将出现递减，因此未来5-10年中国经济增长的主要动力将有赖于全要素生产率的提高。

According to the calculation,Reform and opening up 30 years,Capital on the growth of China's economy the largest contribution,About 50%;Total factor productivity improve contribution take second place,For about 30%;The contribution of labor force to economic growth minimum,For about 20%.Can be expected,Because of the population aging intensifies,China's labor force growth will slow down significantly,Its contribution to economic growth will be further decline.Due to the effect of marginal output decline rule,Capital investment marginal output will appear decline,So the next 5 to 10 years China's economic growth will be the main power depends on total factor productivity.

　　为促进全要素生产率的提高，政府应加大对知识产权的保护力度，通过财税、金融、管理等手段支持企业的研究开发活动，促进产、学、研结合和科技创新，促进科技成果转化和产业转型发展，深化教育体制改革，加大职业教育和职业培训力度，全面提高劳动者素质。

To promote the total factor productivity,The government should strengthen the intellectual property protection efforts,Through the finance and tax/financial/Management, and other means to support enterprise research and development activities,Promote production/learn/Combining research and scientific and technological innovation,The transformation of scientific and technological achievements and the development of industry transformation,Deepening the education reform,Increase the vocational education and vocational training efforts,Improve the quality of workers.

　　第四，从产业结构的角度看，中国经济增长的新动力将来自服务业和战略新兴产业。

The fourth,From the perspective of industrial structure,China's economic growth will come from different services and strategic emerging industry.

　　改革开放以来，支撑中国经济保持高速增长主要是“工业化”和“城市化”两大支柱。而“工业化”和“城市化”快速发展的必然结果就是GDP中第一产业（农业）比重的不断下降和第二产业（工业和建筑业）不断上升。然而，当“工业化”达到一定水平的时候，第三产业（服务业）比重将逐步上升。通过国际比较可以发现，与中国发展阶段相似的国家服务业占GDP比重普遍在50%左右，高于中国目前43%左右的水平。

Since the reform and opening up,Support China's economy has maintained rapid growth is mainly"industrialization"and"urbanization"Two pillar.and"industrialization"and"urbanization"Rapid development inevitable result is the first industry in GDP(agricultural)The continuous decline in the proportion of the second industry and(Industrial and construction)rising.however,when"industrialization"To a certain level,The third industry(services)Specific gravity will gradually rise.Through the international comparison can be found,And China's development stage similar national service GDP common at around 50%,China is now higher than the 43% level.

　　今后5-10年，伴随人口老龄化和城市化步伐的加快，中国城乡消费水平将进一步提高，消费结构将明显升级；制造业产能过剩和出口受阻将促进现代服务业发展和服务出口比重提高；节能减排和环境保护力度的加大将推动绿色经济和低碳经济的发展；垄断行业向非公经济和小微企业的开放将促进金融、电信、医疗、教育等服务业发展。另外，伴随国家在财税、金融、科技等优惠、倾斜和支持政策的落实，反映未来机构及发展方向的诸多战略新兴产业将得到长足发展，其对经济增长的拉动力将明显增强。

The next five to 10 years,With an aging population and speed up the pace of urbanization,China's urban and rural consumption level will be further enhanced,Consumption structure will significantly upgrade;Manufacturing overcapacity and export hindered will promote the development of modern service trades and services to improve export proportion;Energy conservation and emission reduction and environmental protection intensified efforts will promote green economy and low carbon economic development;Monopoly industry into the non-state-owned economy and small micro enterprise open will promote financial/telecom/medical/Education and the development of service industry.In addition,With countries in the finance and tax/financial/Technology preferential/Tilt and support the implementation of the policy,Reflect the future mechanism and development direction of the many strategic emerging industry will have great progress,The economic growth of the pulling power will noticeably.

　　第五，从地区结构看，中国经济增长的新动力将来自中西部地区。

The fifth,See from regional structure,China's economic growth will come from different parts of the Midwest.

　　最近几年，伴随国家西部大开发、中部崛起和振兴东北老工业基地的实施，再加上全球金融危机爆发以来出口疲软对东部沿海地区经济的冲击以及劳动力、能源、资源环境等要素成本逐年上升的影响，东部地区经济减速明显而中西部、东北部地区经济增长相对较快。今年上半年，东部10省（市）地区生产总值平均增速为9.2%，中部6省为11%，西部12省（市）为12.1%，东北三省为10.5%。可以预计，今后5-10年这一趋势将得以持续，中国经济的地区结构将发生重大变化，国内产业转移将成为拉动中国经济增长的重要力量。

In recent years,With the great development of western countries/Rise of central China and the revitalization of northeast old industrial base of the implementation,Combined with the global financial crisis since the outbreak of the weak exports to eastern coastal areas economic impact and labor/energy/Resources and environment cost elements such as the influence of the rising year by year,The eastern region economic slowdown clear and parts of the Midwest/Northeast economic growth relatively fast.In the first half of this year,Eastern 10 provinces(city)Area average GDP growth of 9.2%,The central six provinces is 11%,12 provinces in western(city)Is 12.1%,Three provinces in the northeast of China is 10.5%.Can be expected,The next five to 10 years this trend will be sustained,China's economy will be the regional structure of the major changes,Domestic industrial transfer will be pulled an important force in the growth of China's economy.

　　为实现国内产业转移，充分发挥其对中国经济增长的拉动作用，对东部沿海地区而言，除了要把不符合自身比较优势的劳动密集型、资源密集型产业逐步向中西部地区转移外，要把重点放在企业“走出去”方面、通过海外设厂或海外并购等方式，吸收外国技术、人才等高级生产要素，争夺利润丰厚的研发、品牌、渠道等价值链高端环节，实现产业升级。而对中西部地区而言，则要充分把握国内产业转移转移的有利时机，发挥资源丰富、要素成本低、市场潜力大的优势，大力发展现代制造业和服务产业，实现传统产业的转型升级，加快新型工业化和城镇化进程。

To realize the industrial transfer,To give full play to its role in boosting the growth of China's economy,As to eastern coastal areas,In addition to the consistent with their own comparative advantage of labor intensive/Resource intensive industry gradually to the Midwest transfer outside,To focus on enterprise"Go out"aspects/Through the overseas factories or overseas mergers and acquisitions, etc,Absorbing foreign technology/Talents, advanced production elements,For the profitable research and development/brand/Channels of value chain high-end link,Achieve industrial upgrading.But to the Midwest for areas,Should take full advantage of domestic industrial transfer transfer opportunities,Play resources are rich/Elements of low cost/Great market potential advantage,We will energetically develop modern manufacturing industry and service industry,To realize the transformation and upgrading of the traditional industries,To speed up the new industrialization and urbanization.