中国官方PMI指数今晨公布，9月数据显示，PMI终值再度低于50，报49.8，尽管高于上月0.6个百分点，但低于市场预期的50.1。这样的数据表明，中国整体经济仍然较为弱势，也在很大程度上表明目前的政策放松尚不足以支持整体经济的走强。

China's official PMI index released this morning,September data display,PMI final value again below 50,Newspaper 49.8,Although higher than 0.6% last month,But lower than market expectations of 50.1.Such data shows,China's overall economy is relatively weak,Also in the very great degree show that the current policy relaxation is insufficient to support the overall economy stronger.

　　我们认为中国央行将可能很快下调存款准备金率，同时由于第三季度GDP很可能低于第二季度的7.6%，甚至低于今年7.5%的经济增长目标，我们也认为中国央行降息的可能性也在上升。值得注意的是，中共十八大将于下月召开，在本次会议后，中国的政策放松可能出现一定的加速迹象。

We believe that China's central bank will may soon cut deposit reserve rate,At the same time because the third quarter GDP is likely to less than 7.6% in the second quarter,Even this year is lower than 7.5% of economic growth target,We also think that China's central bank cut interest rates of the possibility is also on the rise.It is important to note that,The eighteen big will be held next month,In this meeting,China's policies relaxed may appear certain accelerated signs.

　　分类数据来看，产出指数高于上月0.4个百分点，至51.3。同时，新订单和出口订单指数分别出现了1.1个百分点和2.2个百分点的上升，但整体指数仍然低于50，分别为49.8和48.8。此外，产成品库存指数与上月相比下滑了0.3个百分点，但原料库存上升了1.9个百分点，但两项指数也都仍然低于50。在上月大幅反弹5.1个百分点后，购进价格再度大幅上升4.9个百分点。

Classification data to see,Output index is higher than 0.4% last month,To 51.3.At the same time,New orders and export orders index appeared respectively 1.1% and 2.2% of rise,But the overall index are still below 50,49.8 and 48.8, respectively.In addition,Manufactured inventory index dropped 0.3% compared with last month,But inventory of raw materials rose by 1.9%,But two index are still less than 50.In the last month after the rebound sharply 5.1%,Purchase price once again rose 4.9%.

　　整体来看，目前央行的货币政策似乎并未达到预想的效果，这也在一定程度上表明大规模的逆回购的可持续性存在疑问。我们认为，由于逆回购在一定程度上反而增加了市场的不确定性和波动性，因此其对整体经济的支撑效果有限。我们也相信央行需要转向降低存款准备金率的政策，同时将逆回购作为微调市场流动性的一个政策工具。

The whole,At present the central bank's monetary policy did not seem to desired effect,This also to a certain extent, shows that the scale of the reverse repurchase sustainable existence question.We think,Due to the reverse repurchase in a certain extent, they have increased the market uncertainty and volatility,So the overall economic support effect limited.We also believe that the central bank need to reduce the deposit reserve ratio policy,At the same time will reverse repurchase as a fine market liquidity of a policy tool.

　　由于10月将有6500亿元的巨量逆回购到期，我们也相信央行将很快降准。

Due to the October there will be 650 billion yuan jillion reverse repurchase maturity,We also believe that the central bank will soon drop quasi.

　　此外，中共18大将在下月初召开，在本次会议上，中国共产党将确立新的领导班子，我们也认为保增长的政策可能在本次会议后出台，以保持社会稳定和平稳的过渡。

In addition,The general held 18 in early next month,In this meeting,The communist party of China will establish the new leadership,We also believe that the growth policy may be in the meeting on after,To maintain social stability and smooth transition.