【市场观察】

[Market observation]

　　中日两国经济正面临包括日企投资放缓在内的诸多变数。10月8日，日经中文网报道称，日本对华并购放缓明显，目前在中国的日系企业压缩产能和调整开店计划的动作正在加大。

The two countries' economies are facing including day look forward to slow investment, the many variables.October 8,The nikkei reported online,Japan mergers and acquisitions in China slowed significantly,Be in China at present, system enterprise compression capacity and adjust set up shop plan action is increasing.

　　小摩预言日本四季度GDP损失0.8个百分点

Small friction predicted Japanese four quarter loss of 0.8% GDP

　　"钓鱼岛事件后，日本明显吃了'经济苦头'，但目前为止，经济效应完全没有转化为让日本政府作出让步的政治动力。"中国人民大学国际关系学院教授时殷弘认为，"影响局势的因素很多，支持日本坚持对钓鱼岛非法立场持强硬态度的其他因素也很有力。要等到日本国会改选后，才会看出日本会不会让步。"

"Diaoyu island after the event,Japan obvious ate 'economic suffering',But so far,Economic effect no into let the Japanese government make concessions of political power."Chinese people's university professor of international relations at YanHong think,"The influence of many factors,Support Japan insist on diaoyu islands illegal position holds strong attitude and the other factors is also very strong.Wait until Japan's parliament after re-election,Will see that Japan would not budge."

　　苦头一说，最直接的体现在贸易和旅游。

Suffering said,The most direct reflected in trade and tourism.

　　中国是日本最大的贸易伙伴，而日本是中国第三大贸易伙伴，去年双边贸易额超过3400亿美元(1美元约合6.3元人民币)；中国占日本整体贸易额20%，占比几乎是美国的两倍。

China is Japan's biggest trading partner,But Japan is China's third largest trading partner,Last year, bilateral trade volume of more than $340 billion($1 $6.3 yuan RMB);China accounts for 20% of Japan's overall trade,The United States is almost accounted for more than two times.

　　在中日钓鱼岛争端前，日本已感受到中日贸易减速的寒意。据日媒报道，受中国经济减速等影响，今年1月~7月，日本对华出口金额比上年同期减少6.6%，至864亿美元。

In the diaoyu islands before the dispute,Japan has felt sino-japanese trade reduction of chill.According to media reports,,Under China's economic slowdown influence, etc,This year January to July,Japan exports to value than the same period last year decreased by 6.6%,To $86.4 billion.

　　摩根大通在最新的一份研报中写道，日中钓鱼岛领土争端将使第四季度日本出口下降、中国赴日游人数大跌。

Jpmorgan chase in the latest research wrote in the report,Japan-china diaoyu islands territorial disputes will make the fourth quarter decline in exports in Japan/In China, the number of swimming plunge.

　　摩根大通预计，与2011、2012年第一季度平均值相比，第四季度中国赴日游客数量将下降70%，日本旅游收入将减少670亿日元(1日元约合0.08元人民币)，占日本当季预计出口损失的38%。(编注：日本航空5日宣布，将日本与中国间航班的临时削减措施延长3周时间，至11月17日。截至10月4日，日航9月至11月往返中国的大约1.95万个预订航班席位遭取消。日航主要国内竞争对手、全日本航空公司证实，截至10月1日，该公司往返中国的大约4.3万航班席位遭取消。)

Jpmorgan chase is expected to,And 2011/The first quarter of 2012 than average,The fourth quarter, the number of visitors to China will decline 70%,Japanese tourist income will be reduced from 67 billion yen(1 yen 0.08 yuan RMB),Japan is expected to account for 38% of exports quarter loss.(bisio:Japan airlines 5th announced,Japan and China will flight between temporary cut measures to extend the three weeks time,To November 17,.As of October 4,,Jal September to November round China about 19500 seats for a flight was cancelled.Jal major domestic rivals/All Japan airlines confirmed,As of October 1,,The company and China about 43000 flights were cancelled seats.)

　　摩根大通眼下认为，第四季度日本GDP(国内生产总值)环比将下降0.8%，而非之前所预计的持平。

Jpmorgan chase that at the moment,Japan's GDP in the fourth quarter(GDP)Link will decline 0.8%,Rather than previously expected flat.

　　日企缩减对华投资

Day look forward to reduce investment in China

　　影响所及，并不仅限于贸易和旅游。

Influence place and,Not limited to trade and tourism.

　　日本是中国第二大外资来源地。根据中国商务部发布的最新数据，今年前8个月，在海外对华投资普降之际，日本对华投资仍增长了16.2%。

Japan is China's second largest foreign investor.According to China's ministry of commerce released the latest data,In the first eight months of this year,Overseas investment in China in the following,Japanese investment in China has increased by 16.2%.

　　日本经济新闻称，在2005年发生大规模的反日游行后，2006年日本对华投资曾一度减少三成。而当下，也已有日本企业开始削减对华投资。

The Japanese economic news said,In 2005 when the scale of the anti-japanese demonstrations,In 2006, Japanese investment in China have been reduced by thirty percent.And then,Have Japanese enterprises began to cut investment in China.

　　以并购为例，今年7月～9月，日本企业针对中国企业的并购(M＆A)件数仅为5件，与4月～6月相比减少了75%，创出了2009年4月～6月金融危机后的最低水平。据日本并购顾问公司RECOF的统计显示，按金额计算，日本企业对中国企业7月～9月的并购额为56亿日元，与4月～6月相比约减少了约7成。

To mergers and acquisitions, for example,July to September,Japan enterprise for Chinese enterprise m&a(M&A)Number is only 5 a,And April to June decreased by 75%,Created in April 2009 ~ 6 months after the financial crisis in the lowest level.According to Japan's m&a consultant company RECOF statistics show,According to the amount,Japan enterprise to the Chinese enterprise in July to September 并购额 for 5.6 billion yen,And April to June compared with about has been reduced by about.

　　目前，日本企业海外并购整体上仍然保持了历史最高增速。

At present,Japan enterprise overseas mergers and acquisitions, on the whole, still maintained the highest growth.

　　除了并购领域，日企调整投资计划的动作也在加大。日本经济新闻称，日本便利店连锁店全家目前正在讨论推迟原定的在华开店计划。服装厂商株式会社大同今年曾计划在华开设约15家店铺，如今也预计减少至数家店铺。此外，生产建筑机械零部件等的日本KYB公司也计划推迟原定今年实施的江苏省工厂的增产投资。

In addition to m&a field,Day look forward to adjust investment plan of action are also increasing.The Japanese economic news said,Japan's convenience store chain family at present are discussing postponing in China plans to open a shop.Clothing manufacturers of corporation in China this year had planned to open about 15 shops,Today is expected to reduce to several shops.In addition,Production of construction machinery spare parts, etc. Of the Japanese KYB company also plans to postpone the implementation of this year due to the factory in jiangsu province increase investment.

　　"日本国内目前的一般看法是：对华投资风险正在越来越大。不光是中国前一阵子的涉日游行，主要是中国经济失速，日本担心，欧美经济大环境如果不改善，会加剧中国经济困境，因此对华投资要慎重。近几年，对华投资成本越来越高，也是不争的事实。这是所谓的'风险'。"上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院教授翟新说。

"The Japanese domestic current general view is:The risk of investment in China is more and more big.Not only is China for a while before the sum of day parade,Mainly is the China's economic stall,Japanese worry,Europe and the United States economic environment if you don't improve,Exacerbate China's economic difficulties,Therefore investment in China must be careful.In recent years,The cost of investment in China is more and more high,Is indisputable fact.This is the so-called 'risk'."Shanghai jiaotong university school of international and public affairs college professor debugging opinions.

　　翟新还提到，中国的制造大国地位并非不可替代，像东南亚的泰国、缅甸、越南、菲律宾，甚至印度、巴西，都可以是日本企业的备选项。

Debugging new also said,China's manufacturing power status is not cannot be replaced,As southeast Asia Thai/Burma/Vietnam/The Philippines,Even the Indian/Brazil,Can be the Japanese enterprise's optional.

　　"从日本的民族心理来看，他们是非常小心谨慎的，已经在中国投资的可能会尽量维持，新投的部分则可能转向。"翟新说，"一部分企业选择继续留在中国的原因是，担心一旦撤出，将来再进中国市场就难了；另一方面，长期来看，他们认为中日经济相互依存，很难分开。"

"From Japanese national psychology to see,They are very cautious,Have investment in China may try to maintain,Part of the new pitch may turn to."Debugging opinions,"Some enterprises choose to continue to stay in China is the reason,Worry once out of,The future again into the Chinese market is difficult;On the other hand,In the long term,They think the economic interdependence,It is difficult to separate."

　　冲击全球供应链？

Impact the global supply chain?

　　供应链问题，也被频频提及。

Supply chain problem,Was also mentioned frequently.

　　国家信息中心经济预测部副研究员张茉楠告诉新华社记者："日本挑起钓鱼岛领土争端引发的连锁反应，不仅使中日经贸进入寒冬期，也对亚洲供应链乃至全球经济产生冲击。"

The state information center forecast economic deputy researcher zhang Mo nan told xinhua:"Japanese provoke diaoyu islands territorial disputes triggered a chain reaction,Not only make china-japan economic and trade into the winter period,Also for Asian supply chain and even the global economic impact."

　　日本是仅次于中国的全球第二大中间产品供应国，日本也是中国最重要的中间产品供应国，在中国从亚洲进口的中间产品总额中所占份额超过了三分之一。

Japan is the world's second largest after China intermediate products supplier,Japan is China's most important intermediate product supplier,In China from the Asian imports of intermediate product in the total share more than a third.

　　有日本留学经历的复旦大学经济学院副院长孙立坚指出，在中日经济中，制造业占主导地位，日本几乎不生产成品，以提供部件为主，汽车整车的组装、电子产品的生产，大多在中国完成。"中日经贸降温、零部件供应停滞，可能导致汽车等产品的市场供应量减少，不排除相关产品价格上涨的可能。"

Have Japan study abroad experience of fudan university school of economics, vice President of the SunLiJian pointed out,In the economy,Manufacturing accounts for the leading position,Japan almost don't produce the product,Mainly to provide components,Auto assembly/The production of electronic products,Most complete in China."China-japan economic and trade cooling/Spare parts supply stagnation,May lead to car and other products in the market has decreased,Does not exclude the possibility of related products prices."

　　据日本电子信息技术产业协会统计，日本国内电子零部件厂商对华销售额在2011年度为8320亿日元，占整体销售额的约25%，占海外销售额约4成。

According to the Japanese electronic information technology industry association,The Japanese domestic electronic components manufacturer sales to China in the 2011 year for 832 billion yen,The overall sales accounted for about 25%,Overseas sales accounted for about 4 into.

　　中国就业或受影响

Chinese obtain employment or affected

　　时殷弘认为，中国把钓鱼岛的政治、法律意义定得非常高，"到今天为止，中国政府是甘愿承受经济的损失，仍要坚持对钓鱼岛的立场。"

YanHong think when,China put the diaoyu islands political/Legal meaning set very high,"To date,The Chinese government is willing to bear the loss of economy,Still want to insist on the position of the diaoyu islands."

　　"我最担心的是，日系制造企业几年后如果真的进行战略转移，中国会产生大量的就业问题，我们需要未雨绸缪。"孙立坚说，"近期日本经济受打击很大，但长期来看，它也许会找到应对危机的策略。而在就业方面，中国手上的牌并不多。"

"What concerns me most is,After a few years of Japanese manufacturing enterprise if it carries on the strategic transfer,China will produce large amounts of the employment problem,We need to save for a rainy day."SunLiJian said,"Recent Japanese economy by a great shock,But in the long term,It may find coping with crisis strategy.And in employment,China hand card is not much."

　　翟新则表示，"影响中国就业是肯定的，但这未必是坏事。中国经济要进行结构调整，还得靠环境来逼，部分日企撤出，长期来看，对两国也许都是好的。中日关系的磨合向来艰辛、痛苦，但最后会走到一块。" 

Debugging new is said,"Influence Chinese obtain employment is certain,But this is not necessarily a bad thing.China's economy to carry out structural adjustment,Still have to rely on environment to force,Part of the day to withdraw,In the long term,The two countries may are good.Sino-japanese relations has been hard the break-in/pain,But in the end will go to a block."