什么是中国未来的热门产业？这个问题老百姓关心，政府也关心。对老百姓而言，问题相对比较简单，主要涉及职业选择。现在“最热门的职业”，几乎是显而易见的，因为人人都在谈论，各个都想干这些看似“热门”的职业。

What is China's future hot industry?The question people care about,The government is also concerned about.To common people in,Problem is relatively simple,Mainly involves career choice.now"The most popular professional",Almost is obvious,Because everyone is talking about,All want to do these seemingly"hot"career.

　　我们可以从信息检索的角度来看看这些热门产业：1、IT业，包括3G工程师、游戏、软件；2、金融业，包括投资分析师、注册会计师等；3、房地产，包括房地产策划师、房地产推销员等；4、酒店旅游业，包括餐饮、娱乐、酒店、旅游等；5、保险业，包括保险精算师等；6、制药保健，包括高级医药代表、药品研发人员等；7、汽车业，包括汽车修理、汽车销售代表等；8、环境工程，包括环境工程师、景观设计师等；9、物流业，包括物流师、供应链经理等。从这些热门行业来看，基本上传统服务业和现代服务业就是中国老百姓心中的未来型热门产业了。

We can from the point of view of information retrieval to look at these hot industry:1/IT industry,Including 3 g engineer/The game/software;2/Financial industry,Including investment analysts/Certified public accountants, etc;3/Real estate,Including real estate planner/Real estate salesman, etc;4/Hotel tourism,Including food/entertainment/The hotel/Tourism, etc;5/insurance,Including insurance actuaries, etc;6/Pharmaceutical care,Including senior medicine representative/Drug research and development personnel, etc;7/Automobile industry,Including auto repair/Car sales representative, etc;8/Environmental engineering,Including the environmental engineer/Landscape stylist to wait;9/Logistics industry,Including logistics division/Supply chain managers.From these hot industry,Basically the traditional service industry and the modern service industry is the Chinese people's heart the increasing hot industry.

　　其实，不要责怪老百姓的产业认识层次没有上去，政府的产业现状也没好到哪里去，这方面的历史数据是相当悲惨的。1989年中国地区内工业部门产业结构与全国部门产业结构相似系数达0.9以上的省市区有22个，占省、市区总数的75.9%。如果除去几个资源偏重型产业，相似系数在0.9以上的省区有26个，占省、市区总数的89.7%。这也就是说，90%的省市在产业领域想干的都是一码事！

In fact,Don't blame people know the industry level to did not go up,The government's industry present situation is not good where to go,The historical data is quite miserable.In 1989, China area industrial structure and industrial departments of the national department of industrial structure similarity coefficient of more than 0.9 in China have 22,Province of/75.9% of the total number of the city.If remove a few resources partial heavy industry,Similarity coefficient in the above 0.9 there are 26 provinces,Province of/89.7% of the total number of the city.This also means,90% of the provinces and cities in the industry wants to do is matter!

　　“九五”期间问题依旧很严重，当时各地纷纷推出了以汽车、石化、钢铁、电子等产业为重点的庞大的“发展计划”。据有关部门测算，将汽车列为支柱产业的省、市区有22个，几乎都是整车厂；将电子列为支柱产业的有24个，发展重点又都是通讯设备、计算机、电子声像设备等；将化工列为支柱产业的有23个，而且大多是以石化为重点。

"ninth"Problems during still very serious,When all are introduced by car/petrochemical/Iron and steel/Electronic industries as the focal point of the vast amount of"Development plan".According to concerning sectional measurement,The car as a pillar industry of the province/Urban areas there were 22,Are almost oems;Electronic as pillar industry of 24,The focus of development and are communication equipment/computer/Electronic audio-visual equipment, etc;The chemical industry as a pillar industry of 23,And are mostly petrochemical as the focal point.

　　“九五”之后，情况有了很大的好转，产业趋同性有了明显改观，但这种好转的趋势在2008年之后又有了逆转的趋势。主要原因是：1、中央虽然三令五申，但地方发展经济的积极性很高，产业视野却跟不上，导致大家一哄而上；2、资源约束，自然资源的分布趋同，连带着产业也趋同，这个很好理解；3、资本投放无视产业发展趋势，比如银行的视野就集中于几个热门产业，自然这些产业也就热烈。本来是“因势利导”，结果却成了“因利导势”。

"ninth"after,Conditions have greatly improved,Industrial convergence have obvious difference,But this get better trend after 2008 have a reversal of the trend.The main reason is:1/The central although repeated orders,But the enthusiasm of local economic development is very high,Industrial vision but can't keep up,Cause you YiHongErShang;2/Resource constraint,The distribution of natural resources convergence,Joint the industry convergence,This is easy to understand;3/Capital on the ignore industry development trend,Such as bank field of vision will focus on several popular industry,Natural these industry also warmly.was"Improve the occasion",The results have become"For LiDao potential".

　　那么未来型的热门产业究竟是一种什么样的趋势呢？

So increasing the hot industry actually is a kind of what kind of trend?

　　现在世界上的主要各国，几乎都是混合经济，从美国到中国，均是如此。在这其中，政府发挥了重要的作用。我们可以发现，在全世界，几乎所有的热门产业背后，都有政府的推手，扮演了重要的角色。有人说，美国是完全的市场经济，这种认识其实是错误的，美国政府在极多的产业领域中，是世界上少数的提供最强有力扶持政策的政府。在历届美国总统的各种记述中，大家随处可见这种“政绩”，几乎都是连篇累牍的“优惠政策”，甚至比中国的优惠政策还要多。

Now the main countries in the world,Almost all is mixed economy,From the United States to China,Are so.In the,The government should play an important role.We can find,In the world,Almost all the popular behind industry,There are the government's hand slap,Played an important role.Some say,The United States is complete market economy,This kind of understanding is actually wrong,The United States government in very many industry in the field of,Is the world a few provide the most powerful support policy of the government.The President of the United States in the accounts of all kinds,All this can be seen everywhere"achievements",Are almost endless"Preferential policies",Even more than China's preferential policies and more.

　　从产业史的角度来看，各国政府在产业领域，积极主推的产业，虽然不是绝对，也有失败的案例，但最后发展成为了真正优势产业的居多。政府拥有权力和资源配置的一定权力，无论中西均是如此。这种资源配置具有引导性，如果再与外部资本形成叠加，资源优势就非常明显，对产业的成功发展提供了更为坚实的基础。

From the point of view of industrial history,Governments in the industry,Positive main industry,Although not absolutely,Also have failed cases,But in the end the development become a real advantage industry is in the majority.The government has the power and the resources configuration of a certain power,Whether Chinese and western are so.This kind of allocation of resources has the leading,If again and external capital formation stack,Resource advantage is very obvious,The success of the industry to provide a more solid foundation.

　　所以，看未来型的产业，要看政府的资源配置趋势，要看政府在发展方面，未来所关注的产业领域。在这方面，所谓的专家未必正确，经济学家也未必正确，虽然他们都具有或多或少的影响力，单就产业影响力而言，那个也未必有政府的影响力大。而且颇有意思的是，由于受到全球化因素的导引，在产业领域全球政府的行动目标基本一致，几乎不受意识形态的影响。发达国家如此，中国往往也是如此，差别仅仅是在步调方面。

so,Literally see the industry,To see the government's allocation of resources trend,To see the government in development,Concern for the future of the industry.In this respect,The so-called experts may not is correct,Economists also is not necessarily correct,Although they have more or less influence,Single is industry in terms of influence,The government may not have big influence.And quite interestingly,Due to globalization factors of guidance,In the industrial field global government action target basic consistent,Almost from the influence of ideology.Developed countries such,China is so often,The difference is only in pace.

　　根据这样的讨论框架，安邦对未来热门产业进行了信息的抽象提炼，大致形成的结论是，下述几个产业将有很大的可能会是未来型的热门产业：首先是气候产业，凡是对改善全球气候有关的低碳产业都将有机会成为热门产业，小到LED灯，大到发电设备或航空发动机；其次是环境产业，有利于环保的产业，都属于环境产业，从节能减排的小发明到治污技术，均属于环境产业；第三是生物产业；第四是健康产业；第五是智能产业，如电信业、智能电网、物联网等；第六是创意产业；第七是机器人产业。

According to the discussion of this framework,In the future AnBang popular industry in the information of abstract refining,The conclusion is roughly formation,The following several industry will have a lot of could be increasing the hot industry:The first is climate industry,Contributes to the improvement of global climate related low carbon industry will have the opportunity to become a hot industry,Small to LED lights,The generating equipment or aircraft engine;Second is the environment industry,Is beneficial to environmental protection industry,All belong to environmental industry,Energy conservation and emissions reduction from the small invention to pollution treatment technology,All belong to environmental industry;The third is the biological industry;The fourth is health industry;The fifth is intelligent industry,Such as telecommunications/Intelligent grid/Things networking, etc;The sixth is the creative industry;The seventh is the industrial robot.

　　需要指出的是，上述产业分类也许有交叉和重叠，而如何“科学地”进行产业分类从来就是一个讨论中的命题。我们的着眼点在于，这些产业是全世界政府所关注的问题，他们在利用各种资源推动这些产业的发展；我们只要了解，这个世界上有着各式各样的政府组织和非政府组织，在积极投入资源推动这些产业的发展就足够了。

It should be pointed out that,The above industrial classification may have and overlapping,And how to"scientific"For industrial classification never is a discussion of the proposition.Our starting point is,The industry is the world government issues of concern,They in the use of various resources to promote the development of the industry;As long as we understand,The world has a wide variety of government organizations and non-governmental organizations,In the positive input to promote the industry development is enough.