三季度外储恢复正增长

The third quarter reservoir recovery positive growth

　　分析认为，三季度外汇储备有所恢复是受贸易顺差回升影响

According to analysis,Third quarter foreign exchange reserve restore somewhat is affected by trade surplus rebound effect

　　央行上周末公布的金融数据显示，截至9月末，我国外汇储备余额为3.29万亿美元，较二季度末的3.24万亿美元有所增加。在今年二季度出现负增长后，我国外汇储备再度转为季度净增长。

The central bank announced last weekend financial data display,By late September,Chinese foreign exchange reserve balance for 3.29 trillion dollars,At the end of the second quarter is $3.24 trillion increased.In the second quarter of this year after the nationwitha shrinking,China's foreign exchange reserves to quarter net growth again.

　　外汇储备现恢复增长

Foreign exchange reserve now restore growth

　　截至2011年末，我国外汇储备达31811.48亿美元，全年外汇储备增加3338亿美元，其中去年第四季度较三季度减少了205亿美元，为1998年以来首次出现季度环比下降。今年以来，外汇储备在一季度大幅增长了1238亿美元后，二季度再次出现负增长，较一季度末减少了650亿美元。今年三季度，外汇储备单季增长500亿美元。

By the end of 2011,China's foreign exchange reserves of us $3.181148 trillion,The foreign currency reserves rose by $333.8 billion,The fourth quarter of last year is the third quarter fell by $20.5 billion,For the first time since 1998 quarterly link decline.Since this year,Foreign exchange reserve in the quarter was $123.8 billion after a sharp increase,The second quarter nationwitha shrinking again,At the end of a quarter fell by $65 billion.The year to the third quarter,For foreign exchange reserves rose by $50 billion.

　　交通银行金融研究中心研究员鄂永健认为，三季度外汇储备有所恢复，主要是受贸易顺差有一定回升的影响。不过外汇储备增加依然较低，这与FDI下降、人民币贬值预期下企业和居民资产外币化有关。

Bank of communications financial research fellow of the center for hubei health think,Third quarter foreign exchange reserve resumed,Main is affected by trade surplus has certain influence of rebound.But foreign exchange reserves increase is still low,This decline and FDI/The devaluation of RMB expected next enterprises and residents of foreign currency assets change relevant.

　　分析称降准必要性下降

Analysis says drop quasi necessity fall

　　近年来，在外贸顺差和人民币不断升值的推动下，我国外汇储备始终处于高速增长状态，巨额的外汇储备给人民币造成了巨大的升值压力，也使得我国宏观调控的空间日益窄小。

In recent years,In the foreign trade surplus and the renminbi from rising driven,China's foreign exchange reserve has always been a high growth state,Huge foreign exchange reserves to RMB caused great appreciation pressure,Also makes our country's macroeconomic regulation and control of the space is narrow.

　　不过央行行长周小川日前撰文表示，中国外汇储备不会无休止地增长，经常项目顺差占GDP比重已过顶峰，今后将不断降低到合理水平。

But the central bank governor zhou xiaochuan said a lot about,China's foreign exchange reserves will not endless growth,A current account surplus of GDP has been the top,The future will continue to reduce to a reasonable level.

　　高华证券研究报告指出，在过去一年中，尽管中国的贸易顺差和外商直接投资余额均有强劲表现，但外汇储备基本持平。这固然可部分归因于估值调整，但其主要原因在于非FDI的资本流出规模较为庞大。这份报告认为，尽管当前人民币和美元之间仍然存在着显著的利差，对全球和中国经济风险的担忧加剧是过去一年热钱外流的主要推动因素。

Gao hua securities research report says,In the past year,Although China's trade surplus and foreign direct investment balance all have strong performance,But foreign exchange reserve is flat.This is partly due to valuation adjustment,But the main reason is that the FDI capital outflow scale to be huge.The report concluded that,Although the current RMB and the dollar still exist between significant interest margin,In a global and China's economic risk concerns is increased over the past year hot money outflow of the main push factor.

　　不过，美联储9月份推出的QE3或许将延缓资本外流中国的步伐。

but,The federal reserve launched in September QE3 may slow the pace of China's capital outflows.

　　近期即期市场人民币汇率持续走强，上周人民币对美元即期汇价连续三个交易日创历史新高，人民币对美元汇率中间价也在周五创下了近3个月的新高。“在外围流动性宽松格局下，未来资本可能加大流入力度、外汇占款可能有一定程度回升，降准的必要性已有所下降。”鄂永健认为。（记者 苏曼丽）

Recent spot market RMB exchange rate continued to be strong,Last week the RMB against the us dollar exchange rate at sight three consecutive trading day a record,The RMB against the us dollar exchange rate the middle price also Friday in a nearly 3 months of high."In the peripheral liquidity loose pattern,The future capital may be increasing inflow dynamics/Funding of foreign exchange may have a certain degree of rebound,Drop the necessity of quasi has declined."Hubei health think forever.(reporter SuManLi)

　　■相关新闻

S related news

　　货币供应量创年内新高

Money supply and high years

　　央行上周末公布的数据显示，9月末广义货币(M2)余额94.37万亿元人民币，同比增长14.8%。这一增长幅度分别比上月末和上年末高1.3个和1.2个百分点，较8月有所加速。

The central bank according to the ministry data released last weekend,Late September broad money(M2)Balance is 94.37 trillion yuan RMB,Year-on-year growth of 14.8%.Such a growth rate were higher than the late last month and ShangNianMo high 1.3 and 1.2%,August is accelerated.

　　此前机构预测，三季度末广义货币供应量增幅约14%。

Previous estimates,At the end of the third quarter broad money supply growth of about 14%.

　　汇丰银行大中华区首席经济学家屈宏斌表示，9月M2增长加速，结合社会融资总量来看，整体流动性相对宽松，表明流动性在改善，需求面有所企稳。随着政策效果逐渐显现，四季度GDP有望回暖。但他同时认为，目前地方税收部门突击征税的行为实际上加大了实体经济下滑的压力。

HSBC bank chief economist in the greater China region QuHongBin said,September M2 growth speeded up,Combined with social financing amount to see,The overall liquidity relatively loose,Show that liquidity in improving,Demand side have stabilises.Along with the policy effect appears gradually,Fourth quarter GDP is expected to be warmer.But he also think,The local tax department assault tax behavior actually increased the entity economy downward pressure.