海关总署上周六发布数据显示，我国9月进出口形势出现好转迹象。其中，出口额创单月出口规模历史新高，同比增速有所反弹；进口同比增速也由负转正。

The general administration of customs on Saturday released data show,Our country on September import and export situation appear better signs.the,Exports and export scale month a record high,Year-on-year growth rebounded;Import year-on-year growth also from negative become a full member.

　　此外，当月中日外贸形势未受“钓鱼岛”事件影响，9月中日双边贸易额环比增长8%。不过，专家认为，外贸数据有一定滞后性，未来四季度影响可能显现。

In addition,The sino-japanese trade situation are not"Diaoyu islands"Event influence,September sino-japanese bilateral trade link growth of 8%.but,Experts say,Foreign trade data have certain hysteresis quality,The next four quarter effects may appear.

　　数据显示，当月我国进出口总值为3450.3亿美元，增长6.3%。

Data display,In the import and export value is 345.03 billion dollars,Growth of 6.3%.

　　9月11日，日本政府宣布“购买”钓鱼岛，实施所谓“国有化”，此举激起中方抗议。

On September 11,,The Japanese government has announced"buy"Diaoyu islands,Implement so-called"nationalization",This aroused the Chinese protest.

　　不过，9月中日双边贸易额300.84亿美元，虽同比下降4%，但环比仍增长8%。

but,September sino-japanese bilateral trade between us $30.084 billion,Although 4% year-on-year drop,But the link has increased by 8%.

　　中国人民大学经济学院副院长刘元春表示，由于9月交货的进出口商品是此前订单，有一定滞后性，所以中日地缘政治因素并未体现。但在四季度，随着“钓鱼岛”事件不断发酵，中日双边贸易将会受到一定影响。

Chinese people's university school of economics, vice President of the LiuYuanChun said,Because September delivery of import and export commodities after is order,Have certain hysteresis quality,So the geopolitical factors did not reflect.But in the fourth quarter,with"Diaoyu islands"Event continuous fermentation,Sino-japanese bilateral trade will be subject to certain influence.

　　此前，商务部新闻发言人沈丹阳曾表示，日本非法“购岛”闹剧，势必影响、损害中日经贸关系的正常发展。

after,Commerce ministry spokesman said ShenDanYang has said,Japan illegal"Purchase island"farce,Certainly will influence/Damage to the normal development of china-japan economic and trade relations.

　　海关统计显示，中国是日本最大出口目的地和进口来源国，日本是中国第四大贸易伙伴。2011年，中日双边贸易额3428.9亿美元，占中国外贸总值的9%。今年前三季度，中日双边贸易总值为2487.6亿美元，下降1.8%。

Customs statistics show that,China is Japan's largest export destination and import source,Japan is China's fourth largest trading partner.In 2011,,Sino-japanese bilateral trade between us $342.89 billion,China's foreign trade accounts for 9% of the total.The first three quarters of this year,Sino-japanese bilateral trade value is 248.76 billion dollars,Fell by 1.8%.

　　■ 解读

s interpretation

　　交通银行(4.32,0.00,0.00%)金融研究中心分析认为，创新高的原因：

Bank of communications(4.32,0.00,0.00%)Financial research center analysis think,Reasons of high innovation:

　　1.季节性利好因素推动

1. Seasonal bullish factors promote

　　2欧、美、日主要发达经济体联手量化宽松刺激

2 the/beauty/Day major developed economies to quantitative easing stimulus

　　3国内“稳外贸”政策出台

3 the domestic"Stable foreign trade"policies

　　刘元春认为，进口情况好转与国内去库存接近尾声，及一系列稳增长政策有关，四季度增速仍有增长空间。

LiuYuanChun think,Import upturn with domestic to stock near the end,And a series of steady growth policies,Fourth quarter growth still has room for growth.

　　对我国第一大贸易伙伴欧盟的出口9月份同比下降10.7%，连续第四个月下降。

To our country the first largest trading partner eu exports fell 10.7% year-on-year in September,For the fourth consecutive months of decline.

　　刘元春表示，欧盟未来是否对我光伏产品征收反倾销税将造成影响。

LiuYuanChun said,The European Union in the future to me whether photovoltaic products will affect anti-dumping duties.

　　刘元春表示，由于9月交货的进出口商品是此前订单，有一定滞后性，但在四季度，随着“钓鱼岛”事件不断发酵，中日双边贸易将会受到一定影响。

LiuYuanChun said,Because September delivery of import and export commodities after is order,Have certain hysteresis quality,But in the fourth quarter,with"Diaoyu islands"Event continuous fermentation,Sino-japanese bilateral trade will be subject to certain influence.

　　■ 分析

s analysis

　　能否实现全年目标未有定论

The realization of the goals throughout the year not determined

　　海关数据显示，今年前3季度，我国进出口总值28424.7亿美元，比去年同期增长6.2%。这与年初制定的10%的增长目标仍有较大差距。但刘元春表示，由于每年的第四季度都是外贸最为繁忙的时期，增速往往能影响全年增速的近40%，因此今年能否“达标”尚无定论。

Customs data display,In the first three quarters of this year,China import and export (GDP) of us $2.84247 trillion,Than last year the corresponding period grows 6.2%.This early and for 10% of the growth target still have a large gap.But LiuYuanChun said,Because of the fourth quarter a year are foreign trade the most busy time,Growth often can affect the growth of nearly 40%,So whether this year"standard"Is uncertain.

　　他表示，未来外贸形势既取决于外部环境，如欧美国家推出的一系列宽松政策能否刺激外需，欧债危机走势、美国“财政悬崖”是否降临，以及新兴市场国家的经济走势等；同时也要看中国此前出台的一系列稳外贸的政策能否取得预期效果。他表示，9月数据只能说明短期外贸有企稳迹象，但中长期来看仍有诸多变数。

He said,The future situation of foreign trade depends on both the external environment,Such as Europe and the United States launched a series of loose policy could stimulate the overseas market demand,The debt crisis situation/The United States"Financial cliff"Is coming,And emerging market countries economic trends, etc;At the same time also to see China after a series of stability on foreign trade policy can get expected effect.He said,September data can only show short-term foreign trade have signs of stabilising,But there is still long to see many variables.

　　今年9月，国务院出台了《关于促进外贸稳定增长的若干意见》(又称“稳外贸八条”)，海关总署在国庆假期前夕宣布了16项配套措施，其中取消三项收费等举措已从10月1日起正式实施。(沈玮青)

September this year,The state council issued a[On promoting the steady growth of foreign trade some opinions](Say again"Steady trade eight"),The general administration of customs in the National Day holiday eve announced 16 supporting measures,The three cancel charge measures such as already from October 1 officially implemented.(ShenWei green)