根据2012年中报显示，33家上市公司中共有5家亏损，大型煤炭企业增收不增利的现象比较明显。全行业平均销售毛利率同比下降3.47个百分点至24.94%，销售净利率同比下降2.21个百分点至8.53%，ROE同比下降1.33个百分点至6.04%。应收账款净额居高不下，影响企业现金流量。信达证券观点，当前煤炭供需、库存等平稳，煤价企稳反弹。4季度煤炭股投资机会：目前煤价企稳，但反弹高度受制于供给宽松，行业层面可能会有超跌反弹机会；其他机会可能来自于大盘走势及其预期，机构增配周期行业一般会选择煤炭股。个股选择方面，主要选择成本低、业绩有增长且确定性强、合同煤占比高或自产自销占比高的标的，关注中煤能源。防御角度关注中国神华。

According to the 2012 NianZhongBao display,33 listed companies a total of five losses,Large-scale coal enterprise income not ZengLi the phenomenon is quite obvious.The industry average sales gross profit rate 3.47% year-on-year drop to 24.94%,The net interest rate of the sale 2.21% year-on-year drop to 8.53%,ROE 1.33% year-on-year drop to 6.04%.Accounts receivable high net,Influence enterprise cash flow.Cinda securities view,The current coal supply and demand/Inventory and smooth,Stabilising prices rebound.4 quarter coal stock investment opportunities:At present coal prices stabilises,But the rebound height is subject to supply loose,Industry level may have super fell rebound opportunities;Other opportunities may come from the grail of trend and its expected,Mechanism ZengPei cycle industry general will choose coal shares.Stocks selection,The main choice low cost/Performance is a growing uncertainty and strong/Contract of coal than high or gandour is than of high mark,Attention middlings energy.Defense Angle focus on China shenhua.

　　商业贸易行业整体或将回暖

Commercial trade industry whole or will thaw

　　由于十月黄金周的存在，预计十月数据仍将保持较高速度增长。整体上看，消费数据在扣除价格影响后，实际增速还是略有回升，但消费拐点尚未出现，静待十月黄金周及四季度传统销售旺季数据情况，尤其是房地产市场有所回暖的背景下，建筑及装潢材料类和家具类商品可能会有所表现。国盛证券认为，长期来看，在CPI维稳的前提下，社销总额将整体维持前期水平。短期消费着重关注四季度消费促销数据的表现，期待“刷卡手续费”以及“用电同价”等刺激政策的出台，在消费旺季的带动下预期行业整体将有望出现回暖迹象。因此，在长期消费增速维稳态势不改的前提下，四季度行业景气度有望逐步回暖。在行业业绩一般的背景下，投资依然坚持增长确定安全边际区域成长。关注业绩有望超预期的银座股份、大商股份，向三四线城市下沉的友好集团、步步高，以及有望受益金价上涨的老凤祥。

Due to the existence of October golden week,Expected October data will remain high speed growth.On the whole,Consumption data in deduct price impact,The actual growth or slightly rebounded,But consumption inflection point has not appeared yet,Static to October golden week and four quarter the traditional sales season data,Especially the real estate market has warmed the background,Building and decoration materials and furniture goods may be showed.Countries that fill securities,In the long term,In the premise of CPI dimensional stability,Club pin amount will maintain the overall level.Short-term consumption focus on four quarter consumption promotion data performance,Looking forward to"Credit card charges"and"Electricity goods"The stimulation such as policy appearing,In the consumption of the season driven by expectations of the whole trade is expected to appear warmer signs.therefore,In the long-term consumption growth dimensional stability situation under the premise of do not change,The fourth quarter the boom of industry is expected to gradually warmer.In the industry performance general background,Investment is still adhere to determine the growth margin of safety regional growth.Focus on performance is expected to exceed the expected ginza shares/Big business shares,To three or four line city sinking friendly group/Step by step,And is expected to benefit from LaoFengXiang gold's rise.