9月出口增速的大幅上扬，让市场对中国外贸形势的好转再燃信心。中国商务部上周五公布的《中国对外贸易形势报告（2012年秋季）》（下称《报告》）亦表现出了积极的预期：随着中国政府出台的一系列“稳外贸”政策效果的显现，四季度进出口有望延续9月份的回升态势，全年中国占全球贸易的份额有望保持稳定或微幅上升。

September sharply export growth,Let the market to China's foreign trade situation better reburn confidence.China's ministry of commerce released last Friday[China's foreign trade situation report(In the fall of 2012)](said[The report])Also showed a positive expected:Along with the Chinese government issued a series of"Stable foreign trade"The effect of policy appeared,The fourth quarter is expected to continue the import and export in September picks up trend,Throughout the year China's share of world trade share is expected to remain stable or grow slightly.

　　《报告》分析，2012年以来，中国外贸发展面临的内外部环境复杂严峻，进出口增速下滑至个位数，进出口企业困难增多。针对形势变化，中国政府及时出台了一系列促进外贸稳定增长、优化外贸结构的政策措施，提振了企业信心，对外贸走势趋稳发挥了重要作用。

[The report]analysis,Since 2012,China's foreign trade development face serious internal and external environments of complex,Import and export growth to single-digit decline,Import and export enterprises more difficult.According to the changing situation,The Chinese government timely issued a series of to promote the steady growth of foreign trade/Optimize the structure of foreign trade policy measures,Boost the enterprise confidence,On foreign trade trends stabilised played an important role.

　　不过，从112届广交会来看，四季度的外贸形势仍然不容乐观。27日，以轻工工艺品为主的第112届广交会二期结束，中国轻工工艺品进出口商会当天公布的统计数据显示，成交总体情况不容乐观。截至25日，成交总额较上届下降了7.67%。

but,From the 112th Canton fair to see,The fourth quarter of the foreign trade situation is still not optimistic.27,Mainly to arts and crafts of the 112th Canton fair two period is over,China arts and crafts import and export chamber of commerce announced on the day of the statistical data shows,Clinch a deal the overall situation is not optimistic.At 25,,Clinch a deal amount is the last down 7.67%.

　　“圣诞季”似低于预期

"The Christmas season"Like less than expected

　　中国轻工工艺品进出口商会收集的问卷显示，有七至八成的企业反映，第四季度订单同比持平或下降，仅有两成左右的企业反映订单增长。截至25日，对欧洲成交较上届下降1.38%，对美洲成交较上届下降了10.91%，对亚洲成交较上届下降1.48%。

China arts and crafts import and export chamber of commerce's collection of questionnaire display,There are seven to eighty percent of the enterprise reflect,The fourth quarter year-on-year decline or order the same,Only twenty percent of enterprise reflects orders growth.At 25,,Clinch a deal in Europe is the last drop 1.38%,Clinch a deal to America than last year dropped by 10.91%,Clinch a deal in Asia is the last drop 1.48%.

　　“今年淡了好多，头3天基本就见完了要见的客户。”生产汽车模型的信宇科技实业有限公司国际营销部负责人曾庆芬告诉《第一财经日报》记者，由于经济形势不好，许多来自欧洲、中东等地区的老客户为了节省费用，没有来本届秋交会洽谈生意，而是选择去明年1月份在香港举行的玩具展会。

"This year a lot of light,The first three days basic he found out to meet customers."The production car model letter space science and technology industrial co., LTD., international Marketing Department person in charge CengQingFen tell[The first financial daily]reporter,Because of the economic situation is not good,From many European/The Middle East and other areas of the old customer in order to save the cost,Didn't come this autumn contact negotiate business,But choose to January toys exhibition held in Hong Kong.

　　鸿顺儿童用品有限公司总经理颜海鸿也不断用“冷清”来形容本届广交会的人气，据其直观感受，来客大概比今年春交会减少了两至三成。

The children's products co., LTD., the general manager with YanHaiHong also unceasingly"Cold and cheerless"To describe the Canton fair popularity,According to its intuitive feelings,Visitors than perhaps ChunJiaoHui this year to reduce the two to thirty percent.

　　每年7月~9月是圣诞礼品的出口旺季，但是今年圣诞节曾庆芬却快乐不起来。“今年圣诞订单已经基本出完了，预计比去年减少10%左右。”曾庆芬表示，“从目前订单情况来看，今年第四季度的出货量不会很乐观，我们的旺季一般在二三季度。”

Each year in July to September is Christmas gift export season,But this year Christmas CengQingFen but happiness is not up."This year has been basically finished the Christmas orders,Is expected to fall by 10% than last year."CengQingFen said,"From the current order situation,In the fourth quarter of this year shipments not very optimistic,Our season generally in two third quarter."

　　更难以乐观的是，曾庆芬说，由于客户会依据目前的销售情况来确定明年春季的下单量，所以当前销售的不景气也会影响到明年春季的出口，“他们中的很多人对明年春季的订单还在持观望态度。”

More difficult to optimistic is,CengQingFen said,Because the customer is on the basis of the current sales situation to determine the spring of next year the order quantity,So the current sales downturn will also affect the export of spring next year,"Many of them for next year's spring order still sidelined."

　　“我们已经做好心理准备：2013年会和2012年同样困难。”颜海鸿表示，今年前三季度的订单量尚能与去年基本持平，但到了10月份便开始感受到明显的下滑。“从10月份开始，我们基本就不需要晚上加班了，以前为了赶交货期一般会忙到年底，但是今年要是有工人提出说要提早回家，我也会放他们走。”

"We have prepared for:In 2013 and 2012 the same difficulties."YanHaiHong said,The first three quarters of this year the orders will still keep balance basically with last year,But in October began to feel obvious decline."From October start,Our basic do not need to work overtime at night,In order to catch before delivery usually busy to the end of the year,But this year if there are workers put forward to say to want to go home earlier,I will put them away."

　　中国轻工工艺品进出口商会分析称，美、日、欧三大传统市场持续低迷，消费不旺，进口需求下降，购买力下降明显，国外经销商的商品销售速度明显放缓。由于欧洲进口商的融资能力和经营方式发生变化，大部分订单已转变为小单、短单。

China arts and crafts import and export chamber of commerce analysis says,beauty/day/The three traditional markets continue to slump,Consumption is not busy,Import demand falls,Purchasing power down significantly,Foreign dealers merchandise sales speed slowed down obviously.Since the European importers financing ability and the mode of operation change,Most of the orders has been into small single/Short single.

　　此外，欧洲金融机构普遍紧缩信贷，当地进口商资金流受到影响，很多客商付款不够及时。拉美、中东和新兴经济体客商虽然增多，但这些地区要么政局不稳，要么与中国贸易摩擦增多，制约了订单成交。

In addition,European financial institutions generally tighter credit,The local importers cash flow affected,A lot of customers timely payment is not enough.Latin America/The Middle East and emerging economies merchants although increased,But these regions or instability,Or trade with China is increasing friction,Restrict the order to clinch a deal.

　　“石油涨、塑胶材料涨、人工成本涨，美国推出第三轮量化宽松政策，人民币升值预期加大，我们在价格上已经毫无优势可言。”颜海鸿说，“现在许多客人一上来就直接问我们还有没有降价的空间，能不能想办法在原材料上节省成本，但其实我们的利润已经接近保底了。”

"Oil rise/Plastic material up/Labor costs rise,The United States launched the third round of quantitative easing policy,The appreciation of the renminbi is expected to increase,We in price has no advantage in."YanHaiHong said,"Now many guests jump directly ask us to still have the space of the price,Can you think of a way to save cost in raw materials,But in fact, our profit is close to the downside."

　　四季度内外环境有望温和好转

The fourth quarter is expected to moderate internal and external environment better

　　尽管广交会的订单情况不是太好，但从目前的先行数据来看，四季度内外影响中国经济复苏的压力都会有所缓解，探底向好趋势似乎已经露出曙光。

Although the China export commodities fair order situation is not too good,But from the current first data to see,Four quarter inside and outside influence China's economic recovery will be to ease the pressure,Exploratory bottom trend seems to have undermined the show.

　　兴业银行(601166,股吧)首席经济学家鲁政委预计，官方PMI将在两个月之后重归荣枯线以上；固定资产投资、社会消费品零售、出口、工业增加值、新增信贷虽较上月有所回落，但都呈现筑底企稳或震荡回升的端倪；间接表征企业去库存压力和利润前景的PPI，同比跌幅也首次开始收窄。

Societe generale(601166,guba)Chief economist commissar lu is expected,The official PMI in two months later return to vicissitude line above;Investment in fixed assets/Retail sales/export/Industrial added value/Despite the new credit easing last month,But the present building bottom stabilises or shock picks up the clue;Indirect characterization of enterprise to inventory pressure and profit prospects PPI,Year-on-year decline for the first time also started to narrow.

　　瑞银证券中国区首席经济学家汪涛对本报记者表示，展望未来，鉴于美国经济复苏的基础似乎已经更为坚实，出口增长有望企稳。

Ubs securities China chief economist WangTao to our reporter said,Looking to the future,In view of the United States economic recovery seems to have more solid foundation,Export growth is expected to stabilises.

　　国内方面，在基础设施投资的带动下，近期信贷增速加快预计也会推动国内投资复苏，而房地产活动预计也将温和复苏。随着总需求企稳回升，企业的去库存压力将逐渐消退。

Domestic aspects,In infrastructure investment under the drive,The recent credit growth is expected to accelerate will also promote the domestic investment recovery,And real estate activities are also expected to moderate recovery.Along with the aggregate demand stabilises picks up,Enterprise to inventory pressure will gradually subsidise.

　　“因此，我们仍然预计未来几个季度经济将会出现温和的周期性复苏，GDP环比增长率将于四季度升至8%~8.5%，并在明年大部分时间里维持这一水平。”

"therefore,We continue to expect that the next few quarters economic will appear gentle cyclical recovery,GDP growth rate will link in the fourth quarter to 8% ~ 8.5%,And most of the time in the next year to maintain this level."

　　《报告》认为，2013年中国对外贸易发展面临的内外部环境可能略好于2012年，但制约外贸稳定回升的阻力依然存在。在外需不足的情况下，中国出口受贸易摩擦的影响持续加大，转变外贸发展方式的任务也更加紧迫。随着国内外环境的深刻变化，中国外贸可能难以再现前些年的持续高速增长。

[The report]think,In 2013, the Chinese foreign trade development facing the inside and outside environment may be slightly better in 2012,But restrict foreign trade stable picks up resistance still exist.Now in the lack of cases,China's export trade friction influence by continuous increase,Change the task of foreign trade development mode is more urgent.With the profound change of the environment at home and abroad,China's foreign trade may be difficult to reproduce the sustainable growth of many.