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人民币汇率飙升 成本上涨 外贸企业措手不及--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-11-04
本次人民币汇率反弹的势头之猛,速度之快,令不少个人和外贸企业措手不及,人民币升值后导致企业成本提高,利润减少或亏损,给出口带来很大影响。
The RMB exchange rate rebound momentum of the fierce,fast,Make many individuals and foreign trade enterprise unprepared,After the appreciation of the renminbi to improve enterprise cost,Profits or losses,To export a lot of influence.
已经连续贬值5个多月的人民币汇率在国庆长假之后突然飙升,并连续创出汇改以来新高。1日,人民币兑美元即期汇率盘中一度创下6 .2372,再创近19年以来新高。短短数周时间人民币对美元从持续贬值迅速转向加速升值引发市场热议。
Have continuous depreciation five more months of RMB exchange rate in the National Day after the long vacation suddenly soar,And continuous creating exchange to record high since.1,The spot exchange rate against the dollar plate once in six . 2372.,Make nearly 19 years since new highs.Just a few weeks of the RMB against the us dollar from the continuing decline rapidly to cause market faster appreciation of the hot debate.
在人民币持续升值背景下,汇率波动加大了个人和企业的汇兑风险,中山不少外贸企业纷纷表示,此举加大了外贸风险,正在回温中的外贸或受影响,尤其是纺织服装、农产品加工等行业。
In the background of RMB continue to rise,Exchange rate fluctuations increase the individual and enterprise's foreign exchange risk,Zhongshan many foreign trade enterprises have said,This increased risk of foreign trade,Was returning to the foreign trade or affected by temperature,Especially the textile clothing/The agricultural products processing industry, etc.
人民币飙升创新高
RMB soared high innovation
从9月份开始,人民币兑美元即期汇率开始持续走强并重新站上6.30整数关口;国庆黄金周过后,人民币继续呈现加速升值趋势,10月中旬,美元兑人民币即期汇率突破6.28,为近19年来首次突破这一关键点位。
Starts in September,The spot exchange rate against the dollar began to continued to be strong and to site 6.30 integer gates;After the National Day golden week,RMB appreciation continued to accelerate the trend,In the middle of October,Dollar/yuan spot exchange rate 6.28 breakthrough,For the past 19 years for the first time in this key point.
在连续多个交易日触及跌停位后,1日,人民币兑美元即期汇率盘中创下了6.2372这一历史新高,但是涨势有所缓和。
In the continuous multiple trading day touch fall after parking,1,The spot exchange rate against the dollar set a dish a historic high of 6. 2372.,But rise has eased.
多因素刺激热钱涌入
Many factors stimulate hot money inflow
对于人民币为何突然大幅升值,市场也给出了多种解读。不过,业内普遍认为,造成人民币短期内突然大幅升值,主要是源于美国新一轮量化宽松政策启动,美元指数持续走低,造成非美货币普遍被动升值。
For the yuan to rise sharply why suddenly,Market also gives a variety of interpretation.but,The industry generally believe that,In the short term caused by the sudden rise sharply,Is mainly originated from the United States a new round of quantitative easing policy start,The dollar index falling,Cause blame beauty monetary universal passive appreciation.
还有一种观点认为,此轮人民币涨势,是热钱大量涌入推动。中山大学岭南学院财税系主任林江认为,欧美日宽松货币政策催生的大量资金经由香港涌入内地,且仍在继续涌入。
Still have a kind of view,This round of the yuan rise,Is hot money pouring into a push.Lingnan college of sun yat-sen university finance and tax department head Lin jiang think,Europe and the United States, loose monetary policy has a lot of money into the mainland through Hong Kong,And still continue to pour in.
对于此轮热钱攻势,中国外汇交易中心1日表示,受全球主要经济体持续实行量化宽松政策影响,总体来讲人民币汇率近期持续走高格局尚未明显改变,但长远来看人民币兑美元继续大幅升值空间有限,汇率应以大幅双向波动为主。尽管人民币兑美元近期频创新高,屡触涨停价位,但是央行近日公布的中间价一直维持在6.30附近,表明央行并不希望人民币兑美元持续大幅攀升。
For this round of hot money offensive,The China foreign exchange trading center 1 said,Impacted by the global leading economies continue implement quantitative easing policy influence,Generally speaking the exchange rate for the renminbi recent continued high pattern has not obvious change,But in the long run against the dollar to continue to rise sharply space is limited,Exchange rate should be greatly two-way fluctuation is given priority to.Although the yuan against the dollar's recent high frequency innovation,Repeatedly touch harden price,But the central bank announced recently the middle rate has remained at a near 6.30,Show central bank does not hope against the dollar continued rising sharply.
不少外贸企业措手不及
Many foreign trade enterprise unprepared
本次人民币汇率反弹的势头之猛,速度之快,令不少个人和外贸企业措手不及。中山海关表示,对美元汇率的升高,人民币升值对出口为主、外币资产高的行业冲击较大。纺织服装、农产品加工等行业,附加值低,利润本来就薄,最容易受到人民币升值的影响。以纺织行业为列。据了解,人民币每升值1%,纺织行业销售利润率下降2%-6%。人民币升值后导致企业成本提高,利润减少或亏损,给出口带来很大影响。
The RMB exchange rate rebound momentum of the fierce,fast,Make many individuals and foreign trade enterprise unprepared.Zhongshan customs said,The dollar exchange rate increases,The appreciation of the renminbi to export is given priority to/Foreign currency assets high impact industry.Textile clothing/The agricultural products processing industry, etc,The low added value,Profit was thin,The most vulnerable to the effects of the appreciation of the renminbi.In the textile industry for column.It is understood,RMB appreciation of 1% each,The textile industry return on sales fell by 2% - 6%.After the appreciation of the renminbi to improve enterprise cost,Profits or losses,To export a lot of influence.
对此,不少服装企业都表示人民币的升值,对企业影响比较大。“汇率一变化,对企业利润的影响很大。以前做出口一般有10%的利润”,中山歌瑞尔服装有限公司总经理张翔表示,该厂出口美国的服装基本上都是以美元结算,“人民对美元的汇率一再升高,导致我们的利润率不断下降。”他表示,出口的单子一般是长单,如果按照去年底的价格现在出口,现在出口的服装会出现亏本,“如果改人民币结算会好一点。”
this,Many clothing enterprises have said the rise in the yuan,A great impact to the enterprise."Exchange rate change,To the enterprise profit influence.Do before export usually have a 10% profit",The folk song riel clothing co., LTD., general manager zhang said,The factory exports to the United States clothing basically all is by the dollar settlement,"People against the U.S. dollar exchange rate rise again and again,To cause our profit margins continue to drop."He said,Export list is generally long single,If according to the end of the price now export,Now export clothing will appear at a loss,"If change RMB settlement would be a little bit better."
订单能否回升仍不明朗
Order can rebound is still uncertain
对于外贸企业来说,持续贬值的人民币可以刺激更多的出口订单,这在今年前三个季度外贸持续低迷的时候显得尤其重要,而近期伴随外贸订单的回升,人民币重回升值,一定程度上令未来外贸订单能否持续回升打上了问号。
For foreign trade enterprise for,Continued depreciation of the RMB can stimulate more export orders,In the first three quarters of this year foreign trade sustained downturn when appear especially important,And the recent foreign trade order with the rebound,RMB appreciation back,To a certain extent, foreign trade orders to the future can continue to rise to play on the question mark.
“我们多年来早已习惯于在稳定的汇率或单边市场环境下运作。”中山环威实业总经理史杰君表示,4月份,人民币兑美元双向波动及其幅度的扩大,在一定时期内给企业定价以及规避风险带来困惑。他表示,人民币这一阶段的升值,和汇率的双向波动有关,这也使后市走势更难以判断,这对众多出口企业来说是必须面对的新挑战。
"Our many years used to be in the stable exchange rate or unilateral market environment operation."Zhongshan ring wei industrial general manager ShiJieJun said,In April,The us dollar two-way fluctuation and the expansion of amplitude,In a certain period of time to the enterprise pricing and avoid risk bring confusion.He said,The appreciation of the renminbi this stage,And exchange rate fluctuations of two-way relevant,This also makes the market outlook situation more difficult to judge,The numerous export enterprise is a must face new challenges.
大洋电机有关负责人就表示,人民币升值只能是影响企业决策的一个因素,“通过套期保值等手段,我们能够有效地对冲风险。”永保新绿洲品牌总监杨开庆也表示,有品牌的企业在报价上具有一定优势,人民币的升值对企业的影响要小一点,“不过,外贸结算仍以美元进行,这对出口会产生一定的影响”。
Ocean motor relevant person in charge said,The appreciation of the renminbi is only influence enterprise decision factor,"Through the hedging, and other means,We can effectively hedge risk."For the new oasis brand director Yang open a also said,A brand enterprise in the price has a certain advantage,The rise in the yuan and the effect of which on enterprises to a little bit small,"but,Foreign trade settlement still with the dollar,The export will produce certain effect".
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