10月国内粗钢日产量再度逼近200万吨关口，市场担忧，观望氛围浓厚，无奈钢厂生产饱满，合同组织订单并无太多难度，且前期部分钢厂减产计划搁置。除了与钢价反弹后订单增多原因外，还于钢厂忙于生产出口有关。钢厂出口订单能否大量延续，国际采购在“抄底”中国后，或难有大量订单，中国钢材大量出口订单也将难延续。

October domestic crude steel daily output again approximation 2 million tons of gates,fears,Wait-and-see atmosphere is strong,But steel mills full production,Contract organization order and without too much difficulty,And the early part of the steel mills cut production plan aside.In addition to steel price rebound after the reason increase in orders,Also in steel production of export busy about.Steel export orders can be a lot of continue,The international procurement in"Copy the bottom"China,Or difficult to have a large order,A large number of China's steel export orders will be difficult to continue.

　　目前出口订单多为前期接单

At present more than export orders for the joint single

　　10月部分热卷钢厂订单比例明显减低，但产量无太多减少，主因目前均忙于前期出口订单。据统计，国内40家主要钢厂10月热卷计划总量为971.95 万吨，环比减少3.25万吨，环比降幅0.33%。出口方面，17家主要热卷钢厂10月出口计划量为50.8万吨，环比仅减少0.3万吨，目前出口报盘 FOB为560美元，出口报价较上月增加20-30美元/吨。出口订单一般周期为两三个月，目前接单多为前期订单。且值得注意的是，国际采购订单多在中国 钢价处于最低谷时即便8月底9月初，在一定程度上来讲，国际买家“抄底”成功。

October part of hot roll steel mill order a significant decrease in proportion,But without much reduce production,At present the main are busy with export orders.According to the statistics,Domestic 40 major steel mills October hot roll total plan for 971.95 Ten thousand tons,Link to a decrease of 32500 tons,Link by 0.33%.export,17 home mainly hot roll steel October export plans quantity for 508000 tons,Only link to a decrease of 03000 tons,At present the export offer FOB for 560 dollars,Export price increase than last month 20-30 dollars/tons.Export orders general cycle for two or three months,At present more than meet the list for the order.And it is important to note that,The international purchase orders in China Steel price when the end of August we are even in early September,In a certain extent,International buyers"Copy the bottom"success.

　　国际钢价目前整体低迷

International steel price at present the overall downturn

　　自9月以来，虽中国国内钢市出现久违反弹，但国际钢价格一路下跌，包括前期一枝独秀的美国市场以及相对坚挺的欧洲市场。截止目前，欧美热卷价格跌幅 10-35美元/不等，东南亚市场依旧低迷，中国出口报价抬高10-30美元/吨，但是据市场反馈，中国出口订单明显萎缩。截止目前，以热卷为例，欧洲热 卷价格跌幅12美元/吨，美国跌幅33美元/吨，且当地市场买家并不积极，实际成交相对较弱。东南亚进口、日本出口以及中东进口价格均在550-590美 元/吨左右徘徊，价格变化波动幅度不大。值得注意的是，随着中国钢材价格走高，中国出口热卷价格已经明显抬高，目前中国热卷出口报价560美元/吨 (FOB)。

Since September,Although China's domestic hong tian peng lujiazui of appear rebound,But the international steel prices all the way down,Including prophase outshine others of the U.S. market and relatively strong European market.So far,Europe and the United States hot roll price declines 10 - $35 / unequal,Southeast Asia market is still low,China's export offer up 10 to 30 dollars/tons,But according to the market feedback,China's export order obvious atrophy.So far,With hot roll, for example,European heat Volume price declines 12 dollars/tons,The United States fell $33 / tons,And local market buyers is not positive,The actual transaction is relatively weak.South-east Asia/Exports to Japan and the Middle East import prices are in the 550-590 beauty Yuan/tons wandering,Price changes fluctuation range is not big.It is important to note that,With China's steel prices,China's export prices have obvious hot roll up,At present sinomania roll export offer $560 / ton (FOB).

　　10月来，国际钢价依然盘整震荡。美国薄板生产企业继续拉涨，虽然市场成交无实际好转，但是美国钢厂拉涨积极性不减。目前美国热卷出厂价 600-630美元/短吨不等，冷轧720-740美元/短吨，比上周价格高出20-60美元/吨，但市场实际成交无好转。欧洲钢厂报价暂稳，但市场实际 成交价格继续走低。现北欧热卷价格降至490欧元/吨，南欧450-460欧元/吨，冷轧价格分别为575欧元/吨、540-550欧元/吨;镀锌价格为 595欧元/吨、500-540欧元/吨，跌幅50-10欧元/吨。亚洲薄板市场依然低迷，目前中国国内钢市整体持稳，但是出货普遍欠佳，不过出口报价前 期已被抬高，现12月发货的热卷出口报价为560美元/吨，冷轧出口报价为605-620美元/吨(FOB)，比前期略有抬高，但是出口量无明显增加，实 际成交偏弱。韩日之间三季度热轧价格谈判结束，其三季度平均价为600美元/吨，比二季度下降;印度市场低迷，部分钢厂已有减产，出口也呈疲软态势。现镀 锌出口美国报840-850美元/吨，出口非洲900美元/吨，以上均为CFR。

10 months,International steel price still consolidation concussion.The United States sheet production enterprises continue to pull up,Although the market clinch a deal without actual better,But the United States steel pull up enthusiasm immortalization.The United States currently has a hot roll ex-factory price 600-630 usd/ton inequality,Cold rolled 720 - $740 / ton,Price than last week above 20 - $60 / ton,But the market actual transaction no better.The European steel mills offer temporary stability,But the market actual Clinch a deal the price continues to fall.Now Nordic hot roll price down to 490 euros/ton,Southern Europe 450-460 euros/ton,Cold rolled price respectively for 575 euros/ton/540-550 euros/ton;Galvanized price for 595 euros/ton/500-540 euros/ton,Fall 50-10 euros/ton.Asian sheet market downturn,At present China's domestic hong tian peng lujiazui whole hold steady,But generally poor shipment,But before export quotation Period has been raised,Now December delivery of hot roll export quotation for 560 dollars/tons,Cold rolled export quotation for 605-620 usd/ton(FOB),Early than slightly raised,But no obvious increase exports,real Border clinch a deal the weak.South Korea first price negotiation between hot end,Third quarter average price for 600 dollars/tons,Than the second quarter decline;The India market downturn,Part of the steel mills have cut production,Export also shows weakening trend.Now plating Zinc exports to the United States to offer 840 - $850 / ton,Export Africa $900 / ton,Above all on CFR.

　　中国钢材出口渐失优势

China's steel export gradually lost advantage

　　8月底9月初，国际买价可谓成功“抄底”中国钢材，大量热卷出口报价多在510美元/吨(FOB)；但是在目前国际钢价低迷、中国出口报价抬高，而周 边地区价格接近的情况下，据悉，11月后的出口订单明显减弱，且部分厂家出口订单报价已有下调，且出口利润极差，在要承承担出口风险的情况下，部分钢厂积 极转为内销。

In early September the end of August,The international purchase price is successful"Copy the bottom"China steel,A large number of hot roll export quotation in $510 / ton(FOB);But in the international steel price downturn/China's export offer up,But weeks Edge area prices close to the situation,It is reported,11 months of export orders decreased significantly,And part of the manufacturer has cut export orders quotation,And poor export earnings,To support for export risks,Part of steel product Pole to sale in domestic market.

　　总体而言，在国际钢价下跌、订单需求减少、中国出口利润较低的情况下，预期中国大量出口订单难以继续。

In general,In the international steel price fall/Order to reduce demand/China's export profit lower case,Expected China's large export orders difficult to continue.