分析人士怀疑罗姆尼一旦当选，会立即给中国贴上“货币操纵国”的标签。他们说，这将触发贸易战，伤害美国经济。也有人说，罗姆尼可能会软化立场。还有人认为，还不确定作为世贸成员的美国事实上能否对中国单边实施报复性关税。但几乎没人问这样一个更根本的问题：中国能承受得起同美国打一场大贸易战吗？

Analysts doubt Mr Romney if elected,Would immediately to the Chinese labeled"Currency manipulator"label.They say,This will trigger a trade war,Hurt the U.S. economy.Also someone says,Mr Romney may soften the position.And still others,Not sure yet, as a member of the wto of the United States can in fact on China's unilateral implement retaliatory tariffs.But almost no one ask such a more fundamental question:China can afford the with the United States hit a big trade war?

　　随着向新领导层过渡，中国正处于关键政治时刻。为了实现平稳、和平的权力交接，北京的决策者正努力平息国内麻烦，包括高通胀、社会不平等等。

As to the new leadership transition,China is in the key political moment.In order to realize the smooth/Peaceful transfer of power,Beijing's decision makers are trying to quell the domestic trouble,Including high inflation/Social grievances, etc.

　　全球经济危机后，外国对中国商品的需求以惊人的速度下滑，导致中国经济增长率10多年来首次低于8%。尽管这看起来仍相当健康和令人羡慕，但中国认为8%的经济增长率是长期以来维持社会和政治稳定的一个临界值。

The global economic crisis,Foreign demand for Chinese goods with surprising speed glide,Lead to China's economic growth for the first time in more than 10 years less than 8%.Although it still looks reasonably healthy and envy,But the Chinese think that 8% economic growth rate is for a long time to maintain the social and political stability of a critical value.

　　由于经济仍严重依赖出口，中国出现了乐见美国经济稳健扩张的既得利益群体。美国是中国最大的客户。中国的国内消费仍未达到北京能向美国说“再见”的水平。还有数百万农民工依赖出口制造业来维持生计。因此，短期内中国必须继续对美大量出口，否则会有社会和政治动荡的风险。

As the economy still depends heavily on exports,China appeared like the American economy steady expansion of vested interest groups.The United States is China's largest customer.China's domestic consumption has not reached Beijing to the United States says"goodbye"level.There are millions of migrant workers rely on exports of manufacturing industry to make a living.therefore,In the short term China must continue to export a lot of beauty,Otherwise you will have the risk of social unrest and political.

　　一些人说贸易战可能诱发中国抛售手中的巨额美国债券。但若这样做，中国只会伤到自己。中国投资美债券，是因为不得不如此。它令人民币保持较低价值，使中国出口更具吸引力。这让美国利率维持在较低水平，为美国人创造出更多可支配财富用来购买中国工业品。抛售美债券，可能给中国带来巨大损失。▲（作者保罗·纳什，陈一译）

Some people say trade war may induce China huge write-downs on their holdings of us bonds.But if you do,China will only hurt yourself.China investment beauty bonds,Because have to so.It make RMB keep low value,Make China's exports more attractive.This let us interest rates to maintain in a relatively low level,For americans to create more of their wealth to buy Chinese industrial products.Selling beauty bonds,May bring to China great loss.box-and-one(The author Paul Nash,ChenYiYi)