2012年前三季度累计，全国出口额仅同比增长7.4%，比去年同期增速回落了15.3个百分点，比2010年增速更是急剧萎缩，回落了24个百分点。外贸出口遭遇“急冻”，直接拖累了工业生产，并成为整体经济增速超预期下滑的重要因素。

The third quarter cumulative 2012 years ago,The only exports year-on-year increase of 7.4%,Growth than the same period last year dropped by 15.3%,More than 2010 growth sharp atrophy,Fell by 24%.Foreign trade export encounter"Quick frozen",Direct to drag down the industrial production,And become whole economic growth decline than expected the important factors.

　　由于多种因素影响，预计2013年中国外需环境依然严峻，外贸出口增幅难有较大幅度增长。具体而言，新一年内中国外部需求环境严峻，主要来自三大风险冲击。

Due to the influence of various factors,Is expected in 2013 China overseas market demand environment is still severe,Foreign trade export growth difficult have increase.In particular,A new years China external demand environment severe,Mainly from three big risk impact.

　　首先，欧美债务危机短时期内难以解决，并且还有继续恶化趋势，尤其是美国面临“财政悬崖”，假如不能妥善解决，极有可能将世界经济拖入二次衰退。国际货币基金组织（IMF）因此警告，全球经济进一步放缓风险“高得惊人”，出现二次衰退的风险已显著上升。

First of all,Europe and the United States debt crisis the short term is difficult to solve,And continue to worsen trend,Especially facing the United States"Financial cliff",If cannot be properly solved,Most likely will be the world economy into secondary recession.The international monetary fund(IMF)Therefore warning,The global economic slowdown in further risk"Surprisingly high",Appear two times the risk of recession has significant rise.

　　其次，中日两国之间的经济往来。现阶段中国是日本最大、增长最快的出口市场，也是日系商品最大的海外制造基地。其中，2011年日本对华贸易出口，占据其出口总量的20%，比出口美国比重高出5个百分点。

secondly,The economic transactions between the two countries.At present, China is Japan's largest/The fastest growing export market,Also, the largest overseas department goods manufacturing base.the,In 2011, Japanese export trade with China,Their export occupies 20% of the total,More than 5% higher than the proportion of exports to the United States.

　　另一方面，日本作为中国第三大出口市场，是中国外需的重要部分，对于全球需求具有重要连锁影响，并且日本还是中国利用外资最多的国家。据统计，今年上半年累计，日本对华投资实际到位金额为839.7亿美元。日本在华生产和商贸企业，其经济产出及其派生量，也是中国GDP的重要构成部分。

On the other hand,Japan as China's third largest export market,Is an important part of China's overseas market demand,For global demand has important influence chain,And Japan or China's utilization of foreign capital most populous nation.According to the statistics,In the first half of this year accumulated,Japanese investment in China in the actual amount of $83.97 billion.Japan in China production and trade enterprise,Its economic output and its derived quantity,Is also an important part of China's GDP.

　　最后，2012年欧美日等发达国家继续实施极为宽松的货币政策，甚至达到了前所未有程度。

finally,In 2012, Europe and the United States and other developed countries continue to implement extremely loose monetary policy,Even reached the unprecedented level.

　　欧美日等发达国家大量释放流动性，以及国内外巨大利差的存在，中国资产价格持续走低，势必引发国际“热钱”再次大规模涌入，成为推高人民币升值的重要因素。一段时期以来，人民币对美元汇率持续升值。其实，美联储宣布QE3之前就已经预见到，QE3会使得大量资金流出美国。人民币的持续升值，虽然也会降低进口成本，有利于控制国内物价，但会对中国贸易出口形成阻碍。

Europe and the United States and other developed countries, a large release liquidity,At home and abroad as well as the existence of great interest margin,China asset prices keep falling,Certainly will cause international"Hot money"Large-scale influx again,Be pushing up the important factor of the appreciation of the renminbi.Since a period,The RMB against the us dollar exchange rate continue to rise.In fact,The federal reserve announced before QE3 had foreseen,QE3 will make a lot of money outflow the United States.By the continued renminbi appreciation,Although also can reduce the cost of imports,To control the domestic prices,But will China's trade export obstacle to STH.

　　由此可见，2013年中国外部需求环境不容乐观。在此前结束的广交会上，出口成交额较上届下降9.3%，其中对欧盟、美国、日本成交分别下降10.5%、9.4%、36.6%，对此不可掉以轻心。

Thus it can be seen,In 2013, China external demand environment is not optimistic.Before the end of the Canton fair,Export turnover dropped by 9.3% compared with last,Among of which the European Union/The United States/Japan clinch a deal were down by 10.5%/9.4%/36.6%,This cannot treat STH lightly.

　　如何应对严峻的外部需求环境，实现中国经济较快增长？最主要的措施，还是要努力扩大国内需求，尤其是清偿巨大规模的历史欠账，大幅增加环境保护建设投资、城乡基础设施投资、医疗教育养老民生投资（000416）等。上述方面数十万亿的持续性建设投资，不仅可以直接拉动金属、水泥、机械等投资品需求，还会产生更大规模的乘数效应，带动工业生产与物流，使整体国民经济活跃起来。其结果，不仅能够消化当前过剩产能，同时又可以弥补“经济短板”，为今后经济协调健康发展提供更好条件。

How to deal with serious external demand environment,To realize China's rapid economic growth?The main measures,Or try to expand domestic demand,Especially pay off the enormous scale of: to pay off longstanding arrears in history,A big increase in environmental protection construction investment/Urban and rural infrastructure investment/Medical education endowment the people's livelihood investment(000416), etc.The above aspects hundreds of thousands of continuous construction investment,Not only can directly pull metal/cement/Machinery and other investment demand,Also will produce more large-scale multiplier effect,Drive the industrial production and logistics,Make whole national economy alive.The results,Not only can digest the current excess capacity,At the same time can make up for"Economic short plate",For the future economy coordinated development of health to provide better conditions.

　　为增强扩大内需的效果，需要实施一些配套支持措施。一个重要方面是要合理调整财政资金使用方向，不能轻易扩大外贸出口退税，更不能对国内过剩行业实施减税扶持。减免过剩产业税收，势必削弱国内过剩行业兼并重组的市场压力，冲击结构调整。与其“花钱不落好”，不如将此类款项集中起来，用来补贴国内消费者。比如对国内家用电器、校车、农机具等商品购买加大补贴力度等，这样刺激需求效果要好得多。

In order to enhance the effect of expanding domestic demand,Need to implement some supporting measures to support.One important aspect is to rationally adjust the direction of use of public funds,Can't easily expand foreign trade export tax rebate,Couldn't be more on domestic excess industry support implementation of tax cuts.Relief excess industry tax,Certainly will weaken the domestic excess annexation and reorganization of industry market pressure,Impact structure adjustment.and"Money don't fell good",As such money will be lumped together,Subsidies to domestic consumers.Such as the domestic household appliances/School bus/Farm subsidies to buy commodities such as increasing strength, etc,So stimulate demand effect is much better.

　　【作者： 陈克新】

[The author: ChenKeXin]