11月8日，中国光伏产业连遭来自美国和欧盟的两记“大棒”，全球光伏贸易战愈演愈烈已不可避免。

On November 8th,China pv industry even was come from the United States and the European Union of two record"stick",Global pv trade war intensified has inevitable.

　　昨日，欧盟委员会正式发布公告，称已对从中国光伏企业进口的硅片、电池、组件启动反补贴调查。至此，欧盟也步美国后尘，对中国光伏产品进行“双反”(反倾销、反补贴)调查。

yesterday,The European commission issued a formal announcement,Said to have from China pv enterprises import silicon wafer/battery/Component start countervailing investigation.So far,The eu also follow America's,Photovoltaic products to China"Double reverse"(anti-dumping/countervailing)survey.

　　此前的9月26日，Solar World挑头的欧洲行业协会EU ProSun向欧盟委员会提出申诉，指控从中国进口的太阳能电池板和其主要部件受益于不公平的政府补贴。欧盟委员会称，从涉案的太阳能面板及其主要部件的进口额来看，这是到目前为止其接到的最大一起反补贴申诉。

After September 26,,solar World corbel out of the European EU industry association ProSun appeal to the European commission,Charged with imported from China solar panels and its main components benefit from unfair government subsidies.The European commission said,From the suspects, solar panels and its main parts imports to see,This is so far the largest received together countervailing appeal.

　　欧盟目前是中国光伏企业最主要的出口市场，出货量占到中国光伏企业的70%左右。欧盟此举涉及其从中国进口的价值210亿欧元的光伏产品，并制造了全球金额最大的贸易摩擦案。

The eu is China pv enterprises the main export market,Shipments to China pv enterprises accounted for 70%.The European Union this involves its imports from China's worth 21 billion euros ($) of photovoltaic products,And create the world largest amount of trade friction case.

　　同一天(美国时间11月7日)，美国国际贸易委员会(ITC)作出终裁，对从中国进口的晶体硅光伏电池及组件做出“双反”终裁，开始对中国光伏电池征收惩罚性关税。

On the same day(The United States time on November 7),United States international trade commission(ITC)Make the final,Imports from China to the crystalline silicon photovoltaic battery and component to make"Double reverse"final,Began to impose punitive tariffs on Chinese photovoltaic battery.

　　中国也已不甘示弱。11月1日，中国商务部宣布对欧盟太阳能级多晶硅料进行“双反”(反倾销、反补贴)调查。11月5日，中国就欧盟部分成员国的光伏补贴措施，提出与欧盟及其相关成员国在世贸组织(WTO)争端解决机制下进行磋商，正式启动世贸争端解决程序。

China has not resigned to playing second fiddle.On November 1,,China's commerce ministry announced on the European Union the sun level polysilicon materials"Double reverse"(anti-dumping/countervailing)survey.On November 5,China is a part of the eu member states of photovoltaic subsidy measures,With the eu and its member states put forward relevant in the world trade organization (wto)(WTO)Dispute settlement mechanism to negotiate,Official start the wto dispute settlement procedures.

　　对此，一家在美上市的光伏企业负责人称，光伏贸易战的背后是供需失衡，而需求萎缩的起因是欧债危机，“对一个缺钱的市场还能指望什么？”

this,A listed in the United States the pv enterprises are responsible for the person,Photovoltaic trade war is behind unbalance of supply and demand,And demand atrophy was the cause of the debt crisis,"For a lack of money market also can you expect???????"

　　“经济不好，国际贸易保护主义就有所抬头了。把内部矛盾外部化，把内部问题转移到国外。”民生证券新能源行业首席分析师王海生分析，“这就是打贸易战，而不是为了发展光伏。”

"Economy bad,International trade protectionism will have looked up the.Externalizing the internal contradictions,The internal problems transfer abroad."The people's livelihood securities new energy industry chief analyst WangHaiSheng analysis,"This is to make a trade war,Not for the development of pv."

　　对于深陷困境之中的中国光伏企业，王海生称，未来就看新兴市场的开拓情况了，包括国内市场。另有一家国内光伏企业负责人称，中国政府会打开中国市场，到时候这场多国演义就看谁能撑得更久，活下来的就是胜者。

For troubled of China pv enterprises,WangHaiSheng says,The future will see emerging market development situation,Including the domestic market.Otherwise a domestic pv enterprises are responsible for the person,The Chinese government will open the Chinese market,Then the romance of nations see who can stay longer,Live is the winner.

　　近期，中国政府对光伏行业开始频频实施救助计划，一系列的政策正在出台。

recent,The Chinese government on photovoltaic industry began to frequent implementation rescue plan,A series of policy is issued.

　　“已想出应对之策”

"Has come up with corresponding solutions"

　　欧盟预计此次调查将需13个月的时间。如果有充分的证据证明上述补贴指控属实，欧盟可能会在9个月内征收临时的反补贴关税。

The European Union is expected to this survey will need to 13 months time.If there is enough evidence to prove the above subsidies accusation,The eu may be in 9 months of imposing provisional countervailing duties.

　　阿特斯相关人士称，非常荒谬。一方面欧盟自身在发展光伏过程中存在大量补贴行为，另一方面中国政府的扶持起步晚，力度也比欧盟小得多。

Liverpool o relevant personage says,Very absurd.On the one hand the eu itself in the development of photovoltaic exist in the process of a large amount of subsidies behavior,On the other hand the Chinese government support starting late,Strength is much smaller than the European Union.

　　“一旦欧盟裁决结果出来，并开出高税率，那么中国光伏就基本垮了。”厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心主任林伯强[微博]称。欧洲市场占据中国光伏企业出口的70%，一旦欧洲市场大门关上，中国光伏企业将遭受灭顶之灾。

"Once the decision results come out,And a high tax rates,So China pv is basic collapsed."Xiamen university, China's energy economic research center director LinBoJiang [micro bo] says.The European market occupy 70% of China pv enterprises to export,Once the door shut the European market,China pv enterprises may be lost.

　　而且更为糟糕的是，欧洲方面“双反”的对象几乎是全产业链，包括从中国生产的硅片、电池、组件，因此要想像应对美国“双反”那样，仅仅将电池片换做海外代工或者海外采购，根本绕不过去。

And worse,Europe"Double reverse"The object is almost the whole industrial chain,Ranging from China's production of silicon wafer/battery/components,So imagine deal with the United States"Double reverse"that,Only will cell in do overseas OEM or overseas procurement,Fundamental won't last long.

　　不过也有光伏企业称，事实没那么悲观，其已想出了应对之策。上述企业的负责人透露，将采用类似贴牌生产的方式，进行技术输出，与诸如印度这样的第三世界国家的光伏企业合作生产，以规避欧盟方面的限制。双方将从销售中进行分成。

But there are also photovoltaic enterprise says,The fact is not so pessimistic,It has come up with corresponding solutions.The enterprise's person in charge said,Will follow a similar way of OEM,Technology output,And such as India such countries of the third world photovoltaic enterprise cooperative production,To avoid the limitation of the European Union.The two sides will from sales of into.

　　“如果没有我们协助，这些没有技术的第三世界国家的光伏企业将被淘汰，他们非常乐于合作。”上述负责人称。

"If without our help,These no technology of third world countries of photovoltaic enterprises will be eliminated,They are very cooperative."The officials say.

　　“阿特斯最大的战略转型是继续向下游扩张，作为整体解决方案商，目前在海外已经拿到了超过700MW(兆瓦)的项目储备。”阿特斯相关人士称，“阿特斯有加拿大工厂，同时也有采购来自中国台湾的电池片。在欧盟方面没有终裁之前，我们还是希望政府通过反制裁等手段维护国内企业的正当利益，也希望欧盟从大局考虑，终止不理智的行为。”

"Liverpool, the biggest strategic transformation is to continue to expand downstream,As a whole solution quotient,At present in overseas has got more than 700 mw(mw)Project reserves."Liverpool o relevant personage says,"Liverpool have Canada, factory,At the same time also have procurement from China Taiwan's cell.In the European Union not before the final,We still hope the government through the reverse sanctions, and other means maintain the just interests of domestic enterprises,Also hope that the eu from overall situation consider,Termination of irrational behavior."

　　“欧洲市场肯定也不能放弃，因为欧洲是最大的存量市场，提供最稳定的现金流。这方面来说，中国要积极做好。”Martec迈哲华(上海)投资管理咨询有限公司能源电力总监曹寅称，“我们也可以尝试在欧洲低成本的地区设立组件工厂，如波兰、乌克兰、罗马尼亚等，保证我们的销售渠道和品牌存在，这是很关键的，否则再进去是很困难的。”

"The European market is certainly can't give up,Because Europe is the biggest stock market,Provide the most stable cash flow.This regard,China will actively do well."Martec Wallace zhe China(Shanghai)Investment management consulting co., LTD. Energy power director CaoYin says,"We can also try in Europe low cost area set up components factory,Such as Poland/Ukraine/Romania,Ensure that our sales channels and brand exists,This is very key,Otherwise, then it is very difficult."

　　在欧盟“双反”的背景下，中国的光伏整合之路可能加速。王海生称，“这个是硬着陆和软着陆的问题，着陆迟早的问题，行业整合淘汰是迟早的。这样的话，淘汰得更猛烈一些。”

In the European Union"Double reverse"Under the background of,Chinese photovoltaic integration road may be accelerated.WangHaiSheng says,"This is a hard landing and the problem of a soft landing,Landing sooner or later,Industry integration out sooner or later.so,Eliminated some more violent."

　　“贸易战将是双输的结果”

"Trade fights are double lose results"

　　事实上，太阳能产业已经成为了一个股市的“黑洞”。五年内最大的几个公司的总市值缩水了约90%。

In fact,The solar energy industry has become a stock market"Black hole".Five years the largest several company's total market value has shrunk about 90%.

　　英国金融时报分析认为，“如果说有什么地方出了问题，那就是这个行业本身——不仅产能过剩，而且在经济紧缩之际还依赖政府补贴。”

Britain's financial times analysis think,"If anything went wrong,That is the industry itself - not only excess capacity,And in the economic contraction is dependent on government subsidy."

　　事实上，僧多粥少，是贸易战爆发的源头。曹寅称，现在欧洲整个光伏行业，尤其是下游的电池和组件情况非常糟糕，导致整个产业的工人和银行不满，“如果不‘双反’，怎么面对他们？现在已经下不了台，只能说打别人耳光打轻点打重点的事。”

In fact,Placements across,Is the source of the outbreak of a trade war.CaoYin says,Now the whole pv industry in Europe,Especially in the downstream of the battery and component the situation is very bad,Cause the industry's workers and bank dissatisfaction,"If you don't‘Double reverse’,How to face them?Now has not the table,Can only say dozen others a slap in the face to play dub play key things."

　　“预计接下来的贸易战会更多。尤其是美国方面，已经对中国的崛起发起全面的遏制政策。”中国可再生能源学会副理事长孟宪淦表示，对于这样的贸易战，中国必须出手回击。

"Expected the next trade war would be more.Especially in the United States,For the rise of China has launched the comprehensive containment policy."The Chinese renewable energy to learn MengXianGan vice President said,For such a trade war,China must make moves back.

　　不过这样的还击是否有效，业内也有不同的看法。王海生认为，中国多晶硅的进口是有依赖的，多晶硅价格比你现有成本还低的市场里面肯定要大量利用国外的，现在一‘反’国外，那就逼着国内企业扩产，这是把企业往火坑里推。

But such a counter-attack is effective,The industry also have different opinions.WangHaiSheng think,China's import of polysilicon is dependent,Polysilicon price is higher than your current cost is low in the market must be a lot of use of foreign,Now a‘reverse’foreign,That forced the expansion of domestic enterprises,This is the enterprise to gehenna push.

　　曹寅也认为这种反制没好处。“我们现在采取的反制措施会产生两种作用，第一个是告诉欧洲，不要再对中国企业‘双反’，我们也会反制，就是让他们取消对中国的‘双反’调查，这个看来已经失败。第二个是告诉欧洲，将来不要对中国的其他产业‘双反’调查，这对双方不利。”

CaoYin also think this counter no good."We now take the counter measures will produce two kind of action,The first is to tell the Europe,Don't for Chinese enterprises‘Double reverse’,We will also counterspell,Is that they cancel to China's‘Double reverse’survey,This seems to have failed.The second is to tell the Europe,The future of China don't other industry‘Double reverse’survey,This adverse to both sides."

　　对于贸易战的最终走向，一家在美国上市的光伏企业负责人称，“如果明年欧盟方面对中国产品‘双反’成立并征税，则用欧洲进口多晶硅做的光伏产品回不到欧洲市场；而由于中国‘双反’，欧洲进口多晶硅也不能用于中国市场，整个游戏中止！”

For the final to a trade war,In the United States a listing of the pv enterprises are responsible for the person,"If the European Union next year on Chinese products‘Double reverse’Founded and taxation,With the European import polysilicon do photovoltaic products could not return to the European market;As China‘Double reverse’,European import polysilicon also cannot be used in the Chinese market,The whole game suspension!"

　　“这个时候海外多晶硅巨头瓦克(德国)、Hemlock(美国)、OCI(韩国)，三巨头变三大头，如何解开这个死局？这个故事一定会发生在明年的第二季。中国市场成长得很快，要实现多晶硅需求的平衡，大约需要时间，谁撑过，谁来定天下！”上述人士称。

"This time overseas polysilicon giant wacker(Germany)/Hemlock(The United States)/OCI(South Korea),Big three variable three big head,How to solve the SiJu?This story will occur in the second quarter of next year.The Chinese market growing up very quickly,To realize the balance of polysilicon demand,About time,Who hold a,Who to set the world!"The above said people.

　　“应拓展国内市场自救”

"Should expand the domestic market self-help"

　　孟宪淦认为，中国政府在出手还击的同时，还应该全面拓展国内市场，进行自救。

MengXianGan think,The Chinese government in return shot at the same time,Should also be the overall development of the domestic market,To save.

　　近期，一系列光伏利好政策频出。比如，10月26日，国家电网[微博]宣布，从11月1日起，6兆瓦及以下容量光伏发电项目可直接在当地电网公司申请并网，并可全额收购分布式光伏发电项目富余电力。

recent,A series of pv PinChu good policy.For example,On October 26,,State grid [micro bo] announced,From November 1,,6 megawatts and below capacity pv power generation project can be directly in the local power grid companies to apply for the grid,And a full takeover distributed photovoltaic power generation project surplus power.

　　国家发改委能源研究所研究员王斯成透露，最近国务院总理温家宝和副总理李克强先后多次批示，要解决中国的光伏产业危机。中电联、国家电网、工信部、国家发改委、国家能源局以及财政部都接到了批示，正在启动相关项目，因此最近相关的会议非常密集。

The national development and reform commission energy research institute researcher WangSi into revealed,Recently the state council premier wen jiabao and vice premier li keqiang has multiple instructions,To solve Chinese photovoltaic industry crisis.Itu in/The state grid/Work letter department/The national development and reform commission/National energy bureau and the ministry of finance have received instructions,Starting related projects,So the recent relevant meeting very close.

　　王海生也表示，现在中国企业需要开拓欧美之外的其他市场。“尤其是中国市场，去年2个GW(吉瓦)的安装量，今年5个GW，明年10个GW。然后再开拓拉美市场、印度市场和亚太市场，这些市场不会被拦着的。”

WangHaiSheng also said,Now Chinese enterprises need to develop outside Europe and other markets."Especially in China market,Last year two GW(Auspicious tile)Installation quantity,5 this year GW,Next 10 GW.And then exploit Latin America market/India market and the asia-pacific market,The market will not be the block."

　　英国金融时报则分析称，现在嚷嚷着的光伏贸易战其实都是浮云。没有任何产业能够靠补贴存活、壮大。光伏行业要迎来春天，关键还是在于提高技术，降低发电成本。

Britain's financial times the analysis says,Now rang rang of photovoltaic trade war actually all is fleeting.No industry can rely on subsidies live/expand.Photovoltaic industry will usher in the spring,The key lies in improving the technology,Reduce generating cost.