在遭遇近年来最严重的贸易狙击而受重创后，中国政府近期终于发出一连串“组合拳”以应对咄咄逼人的欧盟。

In the face of the most serious trade in recent years by a sniper after defeat,The Chinese government recently issued a series of finally"combination"In response to aggressive European Union.

　　11月初，我国商务部发布2012年第70号和第71号公告，决定即日起对原产于欧盟的太阳能级多晶硅进行反倾销和反补贴立案调查。紧接着，商务部又正式将欧盟光伏补贴歧视性措施诉至世界贸易组织（WTO）。

Early November,The ministry of commerce issued in China in 2012, no. 70 and no. 71 announcement,Decide now on the original from eu sun level polysilicon on anti-dumping and countervailing investigation put on record.then,The ministry of commerce and the eu formally photovoltaic subsidies discriminatory measures to suit the world trade organization(WTO).

　　但此时，隔岸观火的美国却又祭出火上浇油的一招——11月7日，美国国际贸易委员会批准美国商务部在未来5年间，可对中国内地光伏产品征收反倾销税和反补贴税。对正陷于困境的中国光伏产业而言，此举无疑是雪上加霜，且美国的做法或将影响欧盟对中国的裁决。

But at the moment,But the United States and offering of Aesop out add fuel to the flames of a move - November 7,United States international trade commission approved the us department of commerce in the next 5 years,For mainland China pv products impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties.To is stranded in China pv industry,This is definitely icing on the cake,And the practice of the United States or will influence the European Union on China's ruling.

　　这场没有硝烟却注定惨烈的光伏贸易战，对处于水火之中的中国光伏产业将产生怎样的影响？

This did not smoke but doomed deadly photovoltaic trade war,In fire and water of China pv industry will produce what kind of impact?

　　必要的反击

Necessary counterattack

　　针对中国政府近期打出的这一连串“组合拳”，中投顾问新能源行业研究员沈宏文对《中国科学报》记者表示：“‘双反’表明了我国政府对光伏企业申诉的肯定，以及保卫本国企业利益的坚定立场。此时发起‘双反’能够迅速阻截海外产品对我国企业的进一步打击。”

The Chinese government recently hit a series of this"combination",An advisor new energy industry ShenHongWen researchers to[China's proceedings]reporters:"‘Double reverse’Show that the Chinese government for photovoltaic enterprise the affirmation,And defend the interests of the domestic enterprise firm.The launch‘Double reverse’To quickly check to our country enterprise overseas products further blow."

　　数据显示，2008 ~2011年，原产自欧盟的太阳能级多晶硅进口绝对数量增长272%，进口价格却下降75%；今年1~6月与2011年同期相比，太阳能级多晶硅进口绝对数量增长34%，进口价格则下降49%。

Data display,2008 ~ 2011,Since the European Union from the sun level polysilicon imported absolute quantity increase of 272%,Import price has fallen by 75%;1 ~ 6 months of this year compared with the same period in 2011,The sun level polysilicon imported absolute quantity increase of 34%,Import prices dropped 49%.

　　“除去经济下滑等因素导致的光伏业持续低迷之外，国内多晶硅企业大面积停产与欧盟多晶硅对我国的大规模、低价格倾销不无关系。”安邦咨询一位不愿透露姓名的研究员表示。

"Remove factors such as the economic downturn in the photovoltaic industry sustained downturn outside,Domestic polysilicon production enterprise large area with the eu polysilicon on China's mass/Low price dumping not relationship."AnBang consulting a did not wish to be named, said the researchers.

　　截至目前，欧盟进口多晶硅价格已低于国产多晶硅，最低价甚至少于20美元/千克，明显低于成本价。

So far,The European Union imports polysilicon prices have lower than domestic polysilicon,The lowest even less than $20 / kg,Was significantly lower than the cost price.

　　对此，中商情报网行业研究员郭来珍对《中国科学报》记者表示，面对贸易保护，选择合适的、实际有力的打击是必要的。

this,Business information network industry researcher guo to Jane to[China's proceedings]reporters,In the face of trade protection,Choose the right/The actual powerful blow is necessary.

　　但是，针对欧盟的这一系列措施是否真的能达到有效反击的目的？

but,According to the European Union, a series of measures that really can achieve the purpose of effective counterattack?

　　沈宏文认为，就目前情况而言尚难下定论，但目前没有比发起反制更有效的办法。如果不积极制止欧盟多晶硅低价格倾销的态势，未来国内多晶硅企业可能全军覆没。

ShenHongWen think,The case is still difficult to define,But at present there is no more effective way to launch counter.If you don't actively put a stop to the European Union polysilicon low price dumping the situation,The future domestic polysilicon enterprise may completely annihilated.

　　“虽然短期内可能依然无法解决欧盟对中国光伏的打压，但对合理权益的坚定维护，有利于压制欧盟贸易保护的势头。”郭来珍说。

"Although in the short term may still cannot solve the European Union on China pv the crackdown,But for the reasonable rights, determined to maintain,To suppress the eu trade protection momentum."Guo said to Jane.

　　沈宏文也指出，“双反”表明了我国政府在国际贸易上的强硬态度，上升到国家层面后不仅能够起到震慑作用，也或许能迫使欧盟有所妥协。

ShenHongWen also pointed out,"Double reverse"Show that the Chinese government in the international trade tough attitude,After the rise to the national level can not only play a deterrent effect,Also may force the eu compromise.

　　借机脱困不现实

Looking to difficulty relief not reality

　　沈宏文指出，由于多晶硅属于光伏产业的上游部分，此次贸易战从短期来看，我国的“双反”堵截了欧盟进口多晶硅带来的冲击，一定程度上保护了我国多晶硅企业。

ShenHongWen pointed out that,Because of polycrystalline silicon photovoltaic industry belongs to the upper part,The trade war in the short term,China's"Double reverse"Detection of the European Union imports the impact of the polysilicon,To a certain extent, protect the our country polysilicon enterprise.

　　“但是，遭遇欧美‘双反’的是我国光伏下游产品——光伏组件，商务部的‘双反’并不能帮助光伏组件撬开欧美市场已经关闭的闸门，因此，国内光伏组件的去路问题并未得到切实解决。”沈宏文说。

"but,Encounter Europe and the United States‘Double reverse’Is our pv downstream products - pv module,The ministry of commerce of the‘Double reverse’And can't help pv modules pry the European and American market closed gate,therefore,The domestic photovoltaic module way problem has not been solve."ShenHongWen said.

　　此次欧盟贸易战的突然来袭，也迅速暴露出我国整个光伏产业结构不合理的问题。沈宏文指出，许多光伏企业今后必将面临兼并重组甚至是破产的抉择，这决定了今后产业的转型将十分艰难。

The eu trade war of overtake,Rapid also exposed the our country the whole pv industrial structure unreasonable problems.ShenHongWen pointed out that,Many photovoltaic enterprise will face in the future annexation and reorganization or even bankruptcy choice,This determines the future of the industry transformation would be very difficult.

　　众所周知，贸易战从来都是“损人不利己”，这场由欧美国家率先发起的贸易战也并不例外。郭来珍认为：“贸易保护行为乃至贸易战没有胜利者。此次光伏贸易战的胜败最多也只能决定双方损失的多和少，但双方损失都是巨大的。”

As is known to all,Trade war never is"Benefit dog in the manger",The first by European and American countries launched trade war is not exception.Guo to Jane think:"Trade protection behavior and even trade war no winners.The pv trade war's victory or defeat the most also can decide the loss of more and less,But both sides will be a huge loss."

　　目前我国光伏产品出口在欧盟市场占有相当大的比重。如果商务部反倾销举措取得成功，欧盟或许会在征收高关税上作出让步或者妥协，但却可能通过其他渠道继续设置障碍，比如对市场份额占比设限、增加转换率标准等。

At present our country photovoltaic products export in the eu market occupies a large proportion.If the ministry of commerce anti-dumping measures success,The eu may be in the collection of high tariffs to making concessions on or compromise,But may through other channels continue to set obstacles,Such as the market share than censored/Increase conversion rate standard etc.

　　因此，这场贸易战或许对欧盟的行为能有所遏制，但对完全陷入低谷的中国光伏企业而言，却无法从根本上解决其目前面临的困境。

therefore,The trade war perhaps for the eu's behavior can put on the brakes,But to completely bottomed Chinese photovoltaic businesses,But not fundamentally solve the dilemma facing.

　　沈宏文认为，在欧美市场封杀我国产品已成定局的情形下，我国企业积累的大量滞销产品只能依靠自己消化。

ShenHongWen think,In the European and American market force out our country product has become a crucial situations,Our country enterprise accumulated a large number of unmarketable products can only rely on their own digestion.

　　战略进行新调整

The strategy of the new adjustment

　　上述安邦咨询研究员认为：“此次光伏贸易战对内的积极意义可能在于，将促使中央及地方政府对光伏及其他新能源产业的战略再次作出调整。”

The above AnBang consulting researcher think:"The pv trade war internal positive significance lies in May,Will be prompted the central and local governments on photovoltaic and other new energy industry strategy to adjust again."

　　连日来，我国政府对光伏行业开始频频实施救助计划，一系列利好政策纷纷出台。如支持分布式光伏发电免费入网、国家电网取消光伏发电上网收费、支持太阳能光电建筑等，使光伏企业尽可能地扩大国内市场。

For the last few days,The Chinese government on photovoltaic industry began to frequent implementation rescue plan,A series of positive policies are introduced.Such as support distributed photovoltaic power generation free access/State grid cancel photovoltaic power generation Internet charge/Support solar photoelectric building, etc,Make photovoltaic enterprise as far as possible, expand the domestic market.

　　郭来珍认为，既然政府层面已经为今后光伏产业指明发展方向，余下的应当交由市场这只“看不见的手”去发挥作用，今后必须通过市场机制来淘汰企业。

Guo to Jane think,Since the government level has for the future pointing out the development direction of photovoltaic industry,The rest of the market should be to this one"The invisible hand"To play a role,In the future must be through the market mechanism to out enterprise.

　　同时，分析人士指出，光伏企业必须通过持续的技术创新以不断地提高电池转换率，降低成本方能继续生存。

At the same time,Analysts pointed out that,Photovoltaic enterprises must through the continuous technical innovation to constantly improve cell turnover rate,Reduce cost can survive.

　　安邦咨询研究员对记者强调：“不论是被国有化了的企业还是现有民营企业，所面临的技术创新以及市场化之路都并非一帆风顺。如果利好政策不能被贯彻执行，那么我国光伏产业受到的伤害会非常重，企业的生存也将变得更加艰难。”

AnBang consulting researcher to reporters emphasized:"No matter be nationalised enterprise or existing private enterprises,Facing the technology innovation and marketization road is not plain sailing.If good policy can not be carried out,So our pv industry the damage will be very heavy,Enterprise survival will also become more difficult."