业内人士透露，全球铁矿石贸易量会持续增长，从2011年的19.2亿吨增长至今年的20亿吨。未来，中国因素将会主导全球铁矿石的贸易格局。只要中国的宏观经济形势向好，铁矿石的价格预期就不会太差。

Industry insiders revealed,The global iron ore trade will continue to grow,From 2011 tons to 2 billion tons this year growth.The future,China factor will be leading the global iron ore trade pattern.As long as China's macro economic situation is going well,Iron ore prices expected won't be bad.

　　由于中国经济的发展以及城镇化建设和保障民生工程的需要，未来一段时期中国的钢产量将处于较高水平。中国钢铁工业“十二五”指导规划提出，中国粗钢需求可能在2015~2020年进入峰值，需求量为7.7亿~8.2亿吨，此后峰值将延续一个时期。

Due to the development of China's economy and urbanization construction and ensure the livelihood of the people the need of project,The next period of China's steel production will be at a higher level.The China iron and steel industry"1025"Guidance plan put forward,China's crude steel demand may be in 2015 ~ 2020 years into the peak,Demand for 770 million ~ 820 million tons,After a period of peak will continue.

　　“钢铁工业对铁矿石需求量巨大，简单计算达到峰值的钢铁产量将需要铁矿石约11.52亿吨。”中钢矿业开发有限公司副总经理罗勇军在中国国际矿业大会上说。

"The iron and steel industry demand for iron ore giant,Simple calculation to the peak of the iron and steel production will need about 1.152 billion tons of iron ore."Sinosteel mining development co., LTD., deputy general manager LuoYongJun in China international mining conference said.

　　仍依赖海外供应

Still rely on overseas supply

　　然而，罗勇军认为，国内铁矿石成品供应量到“十二五”末仍难突破4亿吨。这意味着中国需要海外铁矿石的成品矿将超过7.5亿吨，对外依存度依然很高，超过60%。

however,LuoYongJun think,Domestic iron ore supply to the finished product"1025"End is still difficult to exceed 400 million tons.This means that China needs to overseas iron ore finished product ore will be more than 750 million tons,External dependence is still high,More than 60%.

　　北京国际矿业权交易所总裁董朝宾表示，未来中国因素将会主导全球铁矿石的贸易格局：“因为中国铁矿石储量位于前列，但品位较低，自给能力不足。中国的铁矿石对外依存度在2009年达到64%的最高点，这两年逐步回落，但仍然处于高位。”

Beijing international mining right exchange President DongChaoBin said,The future China factor will be leading the global iron ore trade pattern:"Because China's iron ore reserves at the top,But low grade,Self ability is insufficient.China's iron ore external dependence in 2009 reached 64% of the peak,The two years fell gradually,But is still high."

　　2003年，中国铁矿石的平均品位是40%，2012年上半年，这个数字降到25%。

In 2003,,China's iron ore average grade is 40%,In the first half of 2012,The figure to 25%.

　　近年来，中国一些大企业持续开发海外铁矿资源。据有关数据显示，目前中国企业海外投入铁矿石的资源量达380亿多吨，未来权益矿产能将达2.3亿~2.6亿吨。“虽然我们现在看到资源量比较大，有380亿吨，但是真正能够按期实现产能的项目数量不多。”据罗勇军介绍，有的项目因基础设施受制于人，项目开发也受制于人；有的项目因为没有足够的财力修建铁路、港口等基础建设设施，只好将资源搁置；有的项目由于技术上的原因，项目停止或者投产的时间一拖再拖；有的则因对海外情况不了解，开发工作遇到瓶颈。“即使以上这些项目可以实现产能，未来5年，由中国企业提供的海外权益矿加上国内铁矿石成品矿，也不达总需求量的50%。”罗勇军说。

In recent years,Some Chinese big enterprise sustainable development overseas iron ore resources.According to relevant data show,At present Chinese enterprises in overseas iron ore resources of more than 38 billion tons,The future of mineral rights can reach 230 million - 260 million tons."Although we now see more resources,There are 38 billion tons,But the real can realize capacity on the project quantity is small."According to LuoYongJun introduced,Some projects for basic facilities are,Project development are also;Some programs because do not have enough money to build railway/Port infrastructure construction, such as facilities,Had to shelve the resources;Some programs for technical reasons,The project put into production or stop time procrastinated;Others due to the overseas situation do not understand,Development work meet bottleneck."Even if these project can realize capacity,The next five years,By Chinese enterprises with overseas rights ore and domestic iron ore finished ore,Also not up to 50% of the total demand."LuoYongJun said.

　　去年，中国铁矿石进口是6.86亿吨，今年董朝宾预计为7.3亿吨，但他表示因为最近港口数据在增销，所以这个数据有待确认。11月2日，在港的中国铁矿石数据是9400万吨。

Last year,China's iron ore import is 686 million tons,DongChaoBin this year is expected to 730 million tons,But he said, because the recent port data in upsell,So the data needs to be confirmed.On November 2,,In port of China's iron ore data is 94 million tons.

　　全球铁矿石贸易量持续增长

The global iron ore trade sustained growth

　　罗勇军说，未来几年，全球钢产量将超过16亿吨；铁矿石的供应量将达24亿吨。

LuoYongJun said,The next few years,The global steel production will be more than 1.6 billion tons;Iron ore supply will reach 2.4 billion tons.

　　董朝宾分析认为，全球铁矿石贸易量会持续增长，从2011年的19.2亿吨，增长到今年的20亿吨，并在2013年达到20.8亿吨。

DongChaoBin analysis think,The global iron ore trade will continue to grow,From 2011 to 1.92 billion tons,Growth this year to 2 billion tons,And in 2013 reached 2.08 billion tons.

　　其中，新兴经济体带动了钢铁需求。董朝宾说，2011年，中国人均钢材消费459.3公斤，达到历史最高记录，大约是英、法两国70年代的水平，距其他发达国家峰值仍有较大差距。新兴经济体钢铁消费市场拥有广阔的发展空间。

the,Emerging economies contributed to the iron and steel demand.DongChaoBin said,In 2011,,China's per capita steel consumption 459.3 kg,Reached record highs,About the/Method the two countries in the 70 s level,From other developed countries peak there are still a large gap.Emerging economies steel consumption market has wide development space.

　　目前，在中国的铁矿石进口市场中，澳大利亚和巴西分别占40%和20%，其他来自南非、伊朗、俄罗斯和乌克兰等。

At present,In China's iron ore import market,Australia and Brazil account for 40% and 20% respectively,Other from South Africa/Iran/Russia and Ukraine, etc.

　　董朝宾介绍，从中国铁矿石交易平台反映来看，主流矿山仍然非常活跃。

DongChaoBin introduced,From China's iron ore trading platform to reflect,The mainstream mine is still very active.

　　第四季度价更高

The fourth quarter price is higher

　　2010年至今，欧债危机不断恶化，全球经济增速下降，国际铁矿石市场供大于求，中国钢铁行业低迷，对铁矿石需求减弱，加速了国际铁矿石价格的下跌趋势。

Since 2010,The debt crisis is deteriorating,The global economic growth decline,The international iron ore market supply exceeds demand,The China iron and steel industry downturn,For iron ore demand weakened,Accelerating the international iron ore prices downward trend.

　　根据北矿所的统计数据，2001~2004年全球经济快速增长，铁矿石价格平稳上涨。2004~2007年，全球经济呈现总体上升趋势，经济增长刺激了市场对工业原材料的需求，铁矿石价格小幅上涨。2007~2010年，进入危机的世界各国的救市政策拉动了对铁矿石的需求，呈V型走势，铁矿石价格大幅上涨。

According to the statistical data of the north ore,2001 ~ 2004 worldwide rapid economic growth,Iron ore prices rose steadily.2004 ~ 2007,The global economy has presented the overall upward trend,Economic growth to stimulate the market demand for industrial raw materials,Iron ore prices rose slightly.2007 ~ 2010,Into the crisis of the countries all over the world to save the city policy to boosting demand for iron ore,Is V type trend,Iron ore prices have risen substantially.

　　罗勇军说，目前全球铁矿石需求格局是供略大于需：“长期来看，铁矿石价格会根据成本的变化趋于稳定，短期因为需求的变化，价格变化会比较大。”

LuoYongJun said,At present the global iron ore demand pattern is for slightly more than need:"In the long term,Iron ore prices will according to the cost of change tends to be stable,Short term because the change of demand,Price changes are big."

　　很多公司提出铁矿石扩产计划，但什么时候能实现是个变数。只要中国的宏观经济形势向好，对铁矿石的需求量保持在一定水平上，铁矿石价格预期就不会太差。罗勇军依此预计，第四季度的铁矿石价格将比三季度高。

Many companies iron ore proposed expansion plan,But when can realize a variable.As long as China's macro economic situation is going well,The demand for iron ore to keep in a certain level,Expected iron ore prices will not bad.In this LuoYongJun is expected,The fourth quarter than high iron ore prices will in the third quarter.

　　从长期来看，中国冶金规划研究院副院长李新创认为明年铁矿价格继续走低。“低到什么程度，一方面取决于明年经济全球性形势到底多坏，另一方面取决于中国经济。”

In the long run,China metallurgical planning institute vice President li xin and think that next year iron ore price continues to fall."Low to what extent,On the one hand next year global economy depends on the situation exactly how bad,On the other hand depends on China's economy."

　　李新创对中国经济持谨慎乐观态度。他认为，除“十八大”政策红利影响之外，铁矿石需求下降，全球新增生产能力将有不小的增幅，由此明年铁矿石价格将在现有基础上走低。

Li xin and China's economy to cautious optimism.He thinks,In addition to"Eighteen big"Dividend policy influence outside,Drop in demand for iron ore,The global new production capacity will have a lot of growth,The iron ore prices next year will be based on the existing low.