海关总署11月10日发布的数据显示，前10个月，我国实现进出口贸易总值31615.7亿美元，同比增长6.3%。其中出口16709亿美元，同比增长7.8%；进口14906.7亿美元，同比增长4.6%；累计贸易顺差1802.3亿美元。具体到10月份，我国进出口总值达到3191.5亿美元，同比增长7.3%。其中出口1755.7亿美元，同比增长11.6%，不仅比9月增速快了1.7个百分点，也远超此前市场8.7%的一致预期增速；进口1435.8亿美元，同比增长2.4%，在量增价跌的格局下，进口增速与前月持平；出口增速高于进口增速也导致10月贸易顺差增加至319.9亿美元。

The general administration of customs on November 10th data released by the display,First 10 months,For our country to realize import and export trade (GDP) of us $3.16157 trillion,Year-on-year growth of 6.3%.The export of $1.6709 trillion,Year-on-year growth of 7.8%;Imported 1.49067 trillion us dollars,Year-on-year growth of 4.6%;Total trade surplus of $180.23 billion.Specific to October,,Import and export of our country worth at $319.15 billion,Year-on-year growth of 7.3%.The export of $175.57 billion,Year-on-year growth of 11.6%,Not only faster than September was 1.7%,Far more than the market had expected growth 8.7% agreement;Imported 143.58 billion us dollars,Year-on-year growth of 2.4%,The volume of the increasing price falls under the pattern,Import growth and flat to be somewhat;Exports grew faster than imports also resulted in October trade surplus increased to $31.99 billion.

　　商务部部长陈德铭在十八大中央国家机关团组开放日上表示，目前中国外贸呈缓中趋稳态势，考虑到欧债危机、市场萎缩等内外因素的影响，全年要完成既定的10%左右的目标很困难。商务部已向国务院汇报了有关情况，并提交了调整后的目标，即中国全年对外贸易量在全球贸易总量中的占比不下降。但从1~10月贸易数据的总体表现来看，在国际市场需求不足的情况下，外贸部门和企业迎难而上，仍然取得了不错的成绩。

The ministry of commerce minister Chen deming in the eighteenth big central state organs on the opening day of the group said,China's foreign trade in a slow stabilised situation,Considering to the debt crisis/Market atrophy and the influence of external and internal factors,Throughout the year to complete the set of about 10% goal was very difficult.The ministry of commerce of the state council has to report the relevant information,And have submitted after the adjustment target,China's foreign trade is all the year round in the global trade in the total amount of than does not fall.But from 1 ~ 10 months trade data to see overall performance,In the international market under the condition of insufficient demand,The foreign trade department and enterprise rising to the challenge,Still has made the good progress.

　　首先，我国外贸的增长速度快于世界上绝大部分经济体，在国际市场份额中的占比不仅没有下降，还略有上升；其次，我国外贸在贸易方式、贸易品类和贸易市场等方面均出现了合意的变化；再次，一些企业积极调整结构，培育品牌，国际竞争力进一步提升。

First of all,Our country foreign trade growth speed in most economies,In the international market share accounted for the than did not decline,Also increased slightly;secondly,Our country foreign trade in the trade mode/Trade category and trade market, etc all appeared to change;again,Some enterprise actively adjust the structure,Cultivating brand,To further enhance the international competitiveness.

　　成绩固然可喜，但更值得我们关注的是，较快的出口增速原因何在，是否能持续下去？同时，为什么近期的贸易数据与10月刚结束的秋季广交会的情况存在较大出入？两者之间的矛盾又折射出了什么样的贸易转型启示？

Result is good,But more worthy of our attention is,The rapid export growth why,If you can continue?At the same time,Why recent trade data and October just at the end of the autumn Canton fair condition exists in and out of the larger?The contradiction between and reflected what kind of trade transformation enlightenment?

　　政策效应的可持续性

Policy effect of sustainability

　　9月份，针对我国外贸发展中面临的外需萎缩、企业经营压力增大等问题，国务院与相关职能部门相继出台了一系列促进对外贸易发展的政策措施。9月12日国务院常务会议讨论通过了《关于促进外贸稳定增长的若干意见》，明确提出加快出口退税进度、扩大融资规模等八项政策措施。海关总署于9月28日公布了《关于促进外贸稳定增长的若干措施》，从改进海关监管和服务、推进海关业务改革、降低企业通关成本、推动加工贸易转型升级以及维护公平贸易秩序、营造健康发展环境5个方面推出了16条具体措施。

In September,According to China's foreign trade development faced with in the overseas market demand atrophy/Enterprise management problems such as pressure increasing,The state council and related functional departments have issued a series of to promote the development of foreign trade policy measures.On September 12, the state council executive meeting to discuss passed[On promoting the steady growth of foreign trade some opinions],Clearly put forward to speed up the progress of the export tax rebate/Expand the financing scale, eight policy measures.The general administration of customs on September 28, released[On promoting the steady growth of foreign trade measures],From improving the supervision of the customs and the service/Promote the customs business reform/To reduce the cost of enterprise customs clearance/Promote the transformation and upgrading of processing trade and safeguard fair trade order/To create a healthy development environment five aspects introduced 16 concrete measures.

　　但是，如果说9月我国对外贸易的表现是由外拉（季节因素）和内推（政策因素）共同驱动的话，10月份的外贸表现可能更多的是来自季节因素驱动，政策驱动效果的可持续性需要密切关注。

but,If September the performance of China's foreign trade by external pull(Seasonal factors)Inside and push(Policy factors)Common drive words,In October, foreign trade performance may be more from seasonal factors drive,Policy drive effect sustainable need to pay close attention to.

　　圣诞节消费品一般属劳动密集型产品，多采用加工贸易的方式生产，也有少部分采用一般贸易方式。9月我国进料加工贸易的进出口增速分别为8.7%、0.4%，10月进口增速维持了相同水平，但出口增速却上升为4.4%。与此相反，如前月所分析的，较易反映政策刺激作用的海关特殊监管区域物流货物，其进出口增速分别从50.9%、136.6%下降为36.2%、129.8%，与此对应的海关特殊监管区域物流货物对10月贸易绝对量的贡献也从59%下降到不足45%。在促外贸的相关政策作用下，海关特殊监管区域物流货物在四季度可能仍将保持较快的增长速度是可以预见的，但如果不能与企业或产业的转型升级直接结合起来，那么政策的边际效应可能会越来越小。

Christmas consumer goods general of labor-intensive products,Use the way of processing trade production,Also have a few of the way of general trade.September China feed processing trade import and export growth was 8.7%/0.4%,October imports to maintain the same level,But export growth is increased to 4.4%.In contrast,Such as to be somewhat have analyzed,Easier reflect the policy stimulation of areas under special customs supervision logistics goods,The import and export growth from 50.9% respectively/136.6% to 36.2%/129.8%,And the corresponding areas under special customs supervision logistics goods to October trade absolute quantity contribution also dropped from 59% to less than 45%.In promoting foreign trade policies under the role,Areas under special customs supervision logistics goods in the fourth quarter may will still maintained a fast growth speed is foreseeable,But if we can't and the enterprise or the industrial transformation and upgrading of combined directly,So policy marginal effect may be more and more small.

　　广交会：不一般的晴雨表

Canton fair:Don't generally barometer

　　与海关贸易数据所显示的情况类似，国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会于11月1日发布的采购经理人指数（PMI）的变动也证实了中国外贸趋稳缓增的判断。

With the customs trade data shows similar,The national bureau of statistics service research center/China federation of logistics &purchasing on November 1 issued purchasing managers' index(PMI)Changes also confirmed that China trade stabilised slowly increasing judgment.

　　10月份中国制造业PMI为50.2%，比9月上升0.4个百分点。其中，生产指数为52.1%，比9月上升0.8个百分点，位于临界点以上；与贸易相关的新订单指数为50.4%，比9月上升0.6个百分点，是今年5月以来首次回升至临界点以上；原材料库存指数为47.3%，比9月回升0.3个百分点。官方非制造业PMI指数升至55.5，比9月增长1.8个百分点。

In October, China's manufacturing PMI is 50.2%,Than September rose by 0.4%.the,The production index is 52.1%,Than September rose by 0.8%,Located in the critical point above;And trade related new orders index is 50.4%,Than September rose by 0.6%,Is this year for the first time since may rebound to critical point above;Raw material stock index is 47.3%,September than 0.3% rally.The official non manufacturing PMI index rose to 55.5,September than 1.8% growth.

　　但是，于11月4日闭幕的、被视为中国外贸晴雨表和风向标的中国进出口商品交易会（简称广交会）交出的答卷与上述数据似乎存在明显的冲突。截至11月3日，第112届广交会境外采购商与会人数188145，比110届同期减少10.26%；出口成交326.8亿美元，比上届下降9.3%。不过采购商人数和成交额双双下降并不能说明问题的全部，因为采购商人数、特别是来自欧盟地区的采购商人数下降，很可能是因为预算限制导致的。事实上，随着电子交易平台的发展，很多交易的实现已经网络化；而成交额下降也很可能是在国外收入出现波动的情况下，因为更加重视询价、议价而导致贸易洽谈出现了更长的时滞。对广交会和海关总署、PMI数据发生矛盾的情况，需要我们细致分析广交会整体交易呈现出的特点，找出在哪些方面与现阶段中国外贸的整体格局变动不同。

but,On November 4, the closing/China's foreign trade is considered as the barometer and wind vane of the China import and export fair(Referred to as the China export commodities fair)Surrender papers and the above data seems obvious conflict.By November 3,,The 112th Canton fair overseas buyers the number 188145,Than the same period of 110 reduced by 10.26%;Export $32.68 billion to clinch a deal,Than the last drop 9.3%.But the number of buyers and turnover both down and do not tell the whole story,Because the number of buyers/Especially from the European region decline in buyers,Probably because in the budget constraints.In fact,With the development of electronic trading platform,A lot of the realization of the transaction has been network;And falling volume of business is also may be in foreign income under the condition of volatile,Because pay more attention to inquiry/Bargaining and lead to trade negotiation appeared more long delay.For the China export commodities fair and the general administration of customs/PMI data of conflict,We need a careful analysis the China export commodities fair overall trade show characteristics,Find out in what aspects at the present stage of China's foreign trade with the integral pattern of different changes.

　　除与东盟的贸易变动不同外，本届广交会呈现的贸易变动特征与我国整体贸易形势的变动基本一致。于10月15日开幕的第112届广交会，继续保持了三期展览，其中，第一期以机电、五金、化工等产品为主，于10月19日结束；第二期以轻工产品、园林用品和土特产品为主，于10月27日结束；第三期则属于传统的劳动密集型产品。

In addition to trade with asean change different outside,The Canton fair trade change characteristics and present China's overall trade situation changes are basically the same.On October 15, opening of the 112th Canton fair,Continue to maintain the three phase of the exhibition,the,The first period to mechanical and electrical/hardware/Chemical products etc give priority to,In the October 19 end;The second phase in light industrial products/Garden supplies and native produce primarily,On October 27, end;In the third phase, belong to the traditional labor-intensive products.

　　整体来看，三期展览的表现基本类似，从成交订单的国别来源方向和产品类型来看，主要呈现了两个特点。其一，传统市场低迷、新兴市场分化。对欧盟、美国、日本成交量分别下降10.5%、9.4%、36.6%。对新兴市场成交降幅较小，对中东、金砖国家成交降幅分别为5.7%、0.7%，但与拉美和非洲等新兴市场国家的贸易成交却蒸蒸日上、表现良好。其二，传统的劳动密集型加工产品订单大幅下滑，但创新、品牌产品的成交逆势增长，增长前景看好。本届品牌展区成交125.8亿美元，下降5.4%，比总成交降幅低3.9个百分点。品牌企业平均获得的订单数是非品牌企业的3倍，平均成交额是非品牌企业的6.2倍。创新产品多、设计研发能力强的企业的成交情况明显好于其他企业。

The whole,The third phase of the exhibition performance basic similar,From the trades order allocated source direction and product type to see,Mainly presents two characteristics.one,The traditional market downturn/Emerging market differentiation.The European Union/The United States/Japan volume were down by 10.5%/9.4%/36.6%.In emerging markets fell by smaller clinch a deal,For the Middle East/Nuggets countries by clinch a deal is 5.7%/0.7%,But with Latin America and Africa, and other emerging market countries trade deal but progresses day by day/well.The second,The traditional labor-intensive processing product orders fell sharply,But innovation/Brand products to clinch a deal the contrarian growth,Growth outlook.The brand exhibition area of 12.58 billion dollar clinch a deal,Fell by 5.4%,Clinch a deal than total drop low 3.9%.Brand enterprise average obtained is open brand enterprise 3 times,The average volume of business is a brand enterprise 6.2 times.More innovative products/Design research and development ability strong enterprise clinch a deal situation was obviously better than the other enterprise.

　　贸易转型路径多选

Trade transformation propagation path

　　本届广交会成交金额下降的原因很多，以欧债危机、日本经济陷入衰退、美国经济复苏迟缓等为代表的国际市场需求不振是主要原因，而拉美、中东和新兴经济体客商虽然增多，但这些地区要么政局不稳，要么与中国贸易摩擦增多，也制约了订单成交。更值得关注的是，比较而言，中国国内原材料价格、劳动力成本和综合运输成本大幅上涨，中小企业融资困难，国外贸易保护主义的重新抬头，都在很大程度上导致国外采购商开始将订单转向印尼、越南等东南亚国家。

The Canton fair clinch a deal amount the reasons of the decrease of many,With the debt crisis/The Japanese economy into a recession/The United States economic recovery, such as slow as a representative of the international market of demand is the main reason,And Latin America/The Middle East and emerging economies merchants although increased,But these regions or instability,Or trade with China is increasing friction,Also has restricted the order to clinch a deal.The more notable is,In comparison,China's domestic prices of the raw materials/Labor cost and comprehensive transport costs rise sharply,Small and medium-sized enterprise financing difficulties,Foreign trade protectionism looked up again,In a great extent of foreign buyers to start will order to Indonesia/South-east Asian countries such as Vietnam.

　　如上文所提到的，本届广交会最值得关注的是，来自东盟的订单有较大幅度的下降（-7.9%），与我国同东盟目前的贸易情况完全相反，这让我们不得不重视订单转移背后的产业外迁问题。事实上，较能反映产业转移的外商直接投资企业作为投资进口的设备、物品项已经连续8个月下降，月均降幅超过20%。产业外迁如果能继之以大多数企业的研发、创新能力增强，自然是我们所期望的一种生产和贸易转型方式。我们担心的产业外迁式贸易转型，是指目前发生的产业外迁可能不仅仅淘汰掉了管理不善、负债累累等经济能力不强的企业，还可能将很多健康的、创新能力较强的企业从竞争激烈的国际市场拉回国内市场（出口转内销）。但从长远来看，这种外迁式的贸易转型带来的将不仅仅是订单的转移，还可能逐步蚕食中国企业的国际竞争力。

As mentioned above,The most remarkable is the China export commodities fair,From asean order has a substantial decline(7.9% -),With China's current trade with asean, the situation is the opposite,This let us have to pay attention to order transfer behind the industry until the problem.In fact,A more accurate representation of the industrial transfer of foreign direct investment enterprise as investment import equipment/Items item has eight months down,The average monthly drop more than 20%.Industry moved if can followed by most of the enterprise development/Innovation ability enhancement,Nature is what we expected a production and trade way of transformation.We worry about industry until the type trade transformation,It is to show at present happen until the industry can not only eliminate the poor management/In debt and economic capability is not strong enterprise,May also will be a lot of health/Innovation ability strong enterprise from the fierce competition in the international market back to the domestic market(Export turns sale in domestic market).But in the long run,This type of outsourcing trade transformation brings will not only is the transfer of order,May also gradually encroach on the international competitiveness of Chinese enterprises.

　　国家出台了《关于促进外贸稳定增长的若干意见》等一系列政策措施，不过，除提到“优化外贸国内区域布局”之外，大多没有直接与企业、产业转型升级有效结合起来，相应的边际效应定会逐渐下降。从这个角度，我们强调，短期促增长的刺激措施必须与立足长远的贸易转型政策相结合。但是，产业外迁式的贸易转型也是下一步需要着力避免的。

The country has issued a[On promoting the steady growth of foreign trade some opinions]And a series of policies and measures,but,In addition to mention"The regional layout optimization of foreign trade"outside,Most not directly and enterprise/The transformation and upgrading of industry effectively combines,The corresponding marginal effect will gradually decline.From this Angle,We emphasize,Short-term promote growth of stimulus measures must be based on the long-term trade transformation policy combination.but,Industry until the type trade transformation is also the next step need to avoid.

　　（作者单位：中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际贸易室）

(The author unit:The Chinese academy of social sciences institute of world economics and politics at the international trade chamber)