汇丰集团日前发布最新一期环球贸易展望，称未来三年中国出口额年均增长有望达到12%。分析认为，在未来，我国部分先进制造业的进口替代和出口以及海外工程承包结合的成套设备，都有望拉动我国出口增长。

The HSBC group released the latest issue of global trade prospects,Says the next three years the average annual growth of China's exports is expected to reach 12%.According to analysis,In the future,In part of advanced manufacturing and export and import substitution overseas project contracting combination of complete sets of equipment,Are all expected to pull our export growth.

　　报告还指出，中长期来看，新兴市场将成为我国外贸增长的强劲动能。此外，中国不断促进贸易平衡、增加进口的举措将令其他市场、特别是欧美等发达市场受益，2013年全球贸易额增长有望达5%。

The report also pointed out that,Long-term to see,Emerging markets will become China's foreign trade growth strong kinetic energy.In addition,China has constantly promote the trade balance/Imports will move other market/Especially in Europe and the United States and other developed markets benefit,In 2013 the global trade growth is expected to reach 5%.

　　出口占全球贸易比重还有提升空间

The export share of global trade proportion and promotion space

　　就中国内地而言，虽然外部需求疲弱等因素导致中国出口今年增速放缓，但报告预计，随着经济的逐步企稳，未来三年（2013年到2015年）中国出口额的年平均增长率仍有望达到12%。

In China mainland,Although weak external demand factors lead to China's export growth slowed this year,But the report is expected to,As the economy gradually stabilises,The next three years(From 2013 to 2015)China's exports average annual growth rate still is expected to reach 12%.

　　“今年以来，中国的贸易增长有所放缓，但我们相信这只是暂时的。”汇丰银行（中国）有限公司环球贸易及融资业务部总监欧阳博思表示，这主要是受欧债危机和美国经济低迷等因素影响。

"Since this year,China's trade growth slowed in,But we believe this is only temporary."HSBC bank(China)Co., LTD., global trade and finance department director OuYangBoSi said,This is mainly by the debt crisis and the impact of factors such as the economic downturn.

　　欧阳博思表示，近几个月来，中国的贸易数据已有企稳回升的迹象，而汇丰集团近期的贸易景气度调查也显示出中国贸易企业的信心指数比半年前有所上升。根据海关数据，10月份我国出口增长11.6%，进口增长也转跌为增，创数月新高。

OuYangBoSi said,In recent months,China's trade data for signs of stabilising picks up,The HSBC group and the boom of recent trade survey also showed a Chinese trade enterprise's confidence index rose more than six months ago.According to customs data,In October, of our country export growth of 11.6%,Import growth also turn fell to increase,Gen months high.

　　商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院研究员梅新育告诉南方日报记者，在未来几年内，虽然今年我国外贸增幅较低，但与别国横向比较还是较高的，这意味着我国在国际市场占有率总体上升了，这种“危机淘汰竞争对手”效应有助于我国在未来的市场复苏时占据主动。

The ministry of commerce international trade and economic cooperation research institute researcher MeiXinYu told southern daily reporter,In the next few years,Although our country foreign trade growth this year is relatively low,But with other countries transverse comparison or higher,This means that our country in the international market share rose overall,this"Crisis out competitors"Effect is helpful for our country's future market recovery occupied when active.

　　在梅新育看来，我国出口占全球贸易比重还有提升空间。他向南方日报记者表示，十二五、十三五期间，部分先进制造业的进口替代和出口将有较大增长，在此期间，韩国的同类产业很有可能成为牺牲品。

In MeiXinYu seems,Our export accounts for the proportion of global trade and promotion space.He to the south daily reporters,1025/During 1035,Part of the advanced manufacturing import substitution and export will be more growth,During this period,South Korea's similar industry is likely to become a victim.

　　梅新育补充，随着部分最终组装和加工环节外移而增长的中间投入品，比如服装工业需要的面料、染料、辅料等。另外，我国在2010年已经是世界最大海外工程承包国了，与我国海外工程承包相结合而出口的成套设备也有望拉动增长。

MeiXinYu added,As part of the final assembly and processing link offshoring and growth of intermediate input products,Such as clothing industry need to fabrics/dye/Accessories, and other.In addition,Our country in 2010 is already the world's largest overseas project contracting the kingdom,With China's overseas project contracting combination and export of complete set of equipment is also expected to pull the growth.

　　新兴市场成我国出口增长动能

Emerging markets into our export growth kinetic energy

　　“中长期来看，随着中国不断拓展与新兴市场的贸易往来，其贸易增长仍将保持强劲的动能。”欧阳博思表示。

"Long-term to see,As China continue to expand and emerging market trade,Its trade growth will remain strong kinetic energy."OuYangBoSi said.

　　报告指出，在未来，发达市场需求增长动力不足，中国出口增长最快的地区仍以新兴市场为主，尤其是亚洲市场。报告还预计，2013年到2015年，印度和越南将是中国出口增速最快的市场，预计年均增长率分别达20%和18%。

The report says,In the future,The developed market demand growth power shortage,China's export the fastest growth in emerging markets is still give priority to,Especially in the Asian market.The report also is expected to,From 2013 to 2015,India and Vietnam will be China's export's fastest-growing market,With an average annual growth rate is expected to up to 20% and 18% respectively.

　　随着中国企业不断开拓新的出口目的地，一些新的出口市场正在逐步形成，例如中东北非地区，预计未来三年中国对该地区的出口额将以年均14.3%的速度增长。

With China's enterprises to continuously develop new export destination,Some new export market is gradually formed,Such as the Middle East of north Africa,The expected future three years China to the region's exports will be with an average annual growth rate of 14.3%.

　　“上述局面建立在新兴市场经济份额上升基础之上。”梅新育告诉南方日报记者，2011年新兴和发展中经济体占全球实际GDP份额进一步上升至48.9%。

"The above situation based on emerging market economy based on rising share."MeiXinYu told southern daily reporter,In 2011 emerging and developing economies share of global real GDP share further increased from 48.9% to.

　　梅新育表示，实际上，新兴市场在我国出口市场中已经占据多数。2010、2011两年，中国对日本、欧盟和美国三大主要发达国家和地区贸易进出口、出口、进口三项增长率指标几乎全部低于贸易总额对应指标增幅，新兴市场则表现出活跃的生命力。

MeiXinYu said,In fact,Emerging markets in our export markets has occupied most.2010/2011 two years,China to Japan/The European Union and the United States three major developed countries and regions of import and export trade/export/Three import growth rate index almost all lower than the corresponding index increase total trade,Emerging markets, show the active vitality.

　　数据显示，2011年，我国对新兴市场进出口总额为20740亿美元，占进出口总额的56.9%。其中，出口方面，我国对新兴市场出口总额为9927亿美元，占52.3%；进口方面，自新兴市场进口总额为10703亿美元，占61.4%。

Data display,In 2011,,Our country to emerging market total import and export volume for 2.074 trillion dollars,Accounted for 56.9% of the total amount of import and export.the,export,Our country to emerging market exports for 992.7 billion dollars,Accounted for 52.3%;Import aspects,Since the emerging market imports for 1.0703 trillion dollars,Accounted for 61.4%.

　　“在较长时间跨度上考察，新兴市场地位应该进一步上升，但在近年内有较大经济动荡风险。”梅新育说。

"In a long time span survey,Emerging market position should rise further,But in recent years there were larger economic turbulence risk."MeiXinYu said.

　　我国贸易平衡将拉动全球市场

Our country's trade balance will pull the global market

　　“虽然目前全球经济前景仍不明朗，但得益于亚洲等新兴市场的推动，2013年全球贸易额增长有望达5%。”报告称。

"Although at present the global economic outlook is still uncertain,But thanks to emerging markets such as Asia's push,In 2013 the global trade growth is expected to reach 5%."The report says.

　　报告认为，中国不断促进贸易平衡、增加进口的举措将令其他市场、特别是欧美等发达市场受益。“中国拉动内需的措施也将带动其他市场的贸易增长，为全球的企业带来拓展业务的机会。”欧阳博思表示。

The report says,China has constantly promote the trade balance/Imports will move other market/Especially in Europe and the United States and other developed markets benefit."China stimulating domestic demand measures will also drive the other market trade growth,For global enterprise to bring the opportunity to expand their business."OuYangBoSi said.

　　报告预计，美国对中国的出口额未来三年将以年均10.4%的速度增长，并在此后的2016到2020年间继续提速至12%，而英国对中国的出口额增速预计将从未来三年的年均9.9%逐步提升至2016到2020年间的11.1%。

The report is expected to,The United States exports to China were worth the next three years will be with an average annual growth rate of 10.4%,And in the next 2016 to 2020 years continue to speed to 12%,And England to China's export growth is expected to be the future three years with an annual 9.9% gradually ascending to 2016 to 2020-11.1%.

　　那么，我国应如何调整国内产业发展与国外产品进口的关系？

so,Our country should how to adjust the domestic industrial development and foreign products imported relationship?

　　梅新育表示，我国应首先重点发展高端产业，为其创造良好、开放的竞争性发展环境；在传统劳动密集型产业，随着我国劳动力及土地成本上升，相关产品进口会越来越多。

MeiXinYu said,Our country should first focus on the development of high-end industry,For its creating good/Open competitive development environment;In the traditional labor-intensive industries,Along with our country labor and land costs rise,Related products import will more and more.

　　“从整体上讲，作为世界第二经济大国、第一贸易大国，我们已经不是原来单纯的国际市场被动接受者，而是有能力通过调控、稳定贸易伙伴经济，进而稳定我们的外需。”梅新育补充，我国可以通过将资本输出、扩大原料等进口、海外工程、带动资本设备出口结合起来推动出口。

"Overall speaking,As the world's second major economy/The first trading power,We have is not the original simple international market passive receiver,But the ability through the regulation/Stable economic trade partner,And then stable our overseas market demand."MeiXinYu added,Our country can through the capital output/To expand import raw material, etc/Overseas engineering/Drive the capital equipment export combined push exports.

　　近年来，“转方式、调结构”成为我国外贸增长的主线。梅新育称，在未来，我国外贸应在贸易商品结构提升、提升一般贸易占比以及贸易主体结构向内资倾斜三个基本点，并做好产业升级和产业转移两篇文章。

In recent years,"Turn way/Adjustable structure"Become China's foreign trade growth lines.MeiXinYu says,In the future,Our country foreign trade should be in trade goods structure ascension/Ascension than general trade accounts for the main structure and trade to domestic inclined three basic points,And make industrial upgrade and industrial transfer two articles.