中美贸易摩擦会升级吗？

Sino-us trade friction will upgrade?

　　中美贸易在不断地增长，同时也有一些摩擦，或者说是有一些争端，或者是分歧，那么两国的贸易关系会是在这种争端当中更加的互相依赖？还是更加的疏远？央视财经频道主持人王小丫和特邀评论员中国进出口银行董事长李若谷先生、《财经》杂志社总编辑王波明共同评论。

Sino-us trade in constant growth,There are also some friction,Or is it some dispute,Or differences,So the two countries trade relations will be in this dispute more dependent on each other?Or more distance?The financial channel CCTV host wang xiaoya and guest commentators export import bank of China, chairman of the board of directors made Mr Valley/[financial]The magazine editor in chief WangBoMing common comment.

　　以光伏争端为代表，中美贸易投资摩擦不断，为何中美贸易量增长，各类争端也在增加？预测2013年我们改用何种方式应对争端？怎样才能破除不合理贸易投资障碍？

In photovoltaic dispute as a representative,Sino-us trade and investment friction constantly,Why the trade volume growth,All kinds of disputes are also on the increase?Forecast in 2013 we use what way to deal with disputes?How to break is not reasonable trade and investment barriers?

　　海关总署数据显示，今年1至10月份，中美双边贸易总值达3960.9亿美元，同比增长9.1%，向好数据之下，却是2012年中美贸易领域摩擦不断的现实。其中，光伏双反案调查长达一年之久，10月10号，美国商务部做出仲裁，认定中国向美国出口的光伏产品存在倾销和补贴行为。

The general administration of customs data display,The first 10 months of this year,Sino-us bilateral trade amounted to $396.09 billion,Year-on-year growth of 9.1%,Better off under the data,It is 2012 years in the field of trade friction between China and the United States constantly reality.the,Photovoltaic double reverse case investigation for more than a year,October 10,The us department of commerce to arbitration,That China exports to the us of photovoltaic products have dumping and subsidies behavior.

　　朱慧荣(本台记者)：美国当地时间10月10号的下午4点40，美国商务部公布了这起反倾销，反补贴案件的仲裁结果，那么与初裁时的结果相比，反倾销，反补贴这两项的税率都有所变动，那大部分中国企业都将承受超过34%的惩罚性关税。

ZhuHuiRong(This station reporter):The local time on October 10, and 4 PM,The us department of commerce announced the anti-dumping,Countervailing cases the arbitration,So early and cutting results are compared,anti-dumping,Countervailing both rate all change,The most Chinese enterprise will bear more than 34% of the punitive tariffs.

　　光伏产品的遭遇只是中美贸易摩擦的一个缩影，今年3月5日，美国参议院通过了一项修订1930年关税法的法案，保留了美国商务部对中国，越南等国获得政府补贴商品征税的权利。刚刚完成法案修订，3月20号，美国商务部就迫不及待的做出裁决，认定中国输美化学增白剂镀锌钢丝，钢制车轮存在倾销和补贴行为。同时，初裁我国输美光伏产品存在倾销和补贴行为。

Photovoltaic products with the sino-us trade friction is a miniature of the,This year on March 5,,The U.S. senate has approved a revised 1930 the end of the year tax bill,Keep the ministry of commerce of China,Vietnam and other countries to receive government subsidies commodity taxation rights.Just finished revised bill,March and number,The us department of commerce is eager to make a decision,That China lost beauty chemical brightener galvanized steel wire,Steel wheel exist dumping and subsidies behavior.At the same time,In our country the margin lost beauty photovoltaic products have dumping and subsidies behavior.

　　如何看待2012年中美之间不断的贸易摩擦？奥巴马总统前经济顾问委员会主席古尔斯比认为，中美贸易额增长了许多。2011年，双方互为第二大贸易伙伴，况且，中国企业和产业正在走向升级，两国贸易摩擦升级也在情理之中。

How to look at 2012, the trade friction between China and the United States continuously?President Obama before the council of economic advisers, President gul than think,Trade volume between China and the United States increased many.In 2011,,Both sides are the second largest trading partner,besides,Chinese enterprises and industry is to upgrade,The two countries trade friction upgrade also in reason.

　　奥斯坦·古尔斯比(奥巴马总统前经济顾问委员会主席)：大国间的经济往来总会伴随紧张局势，但两国的贸易发展情况总体是向好的。美国经济刚刚经历了大低谷，可以说是历史性的大萧条，这容易导致不仅是在美国，在很多国家，都出现了反移民，反进口的排外情绪，我觉得，在这样糟糕的形势之下，两国的贸易摩擦还是非常少的。

Mr Gul, Stan van than(President Obama before the chairman of the council of economic advisers):Among the great powers economic relations with tensions there,But the two countries trade development overall is to good.The American economy has just experienced big bust,Can be said to be historic great depression,It is easy to cause is not only in the United States,In many countries,There were anti-immigration,Reverse import xenophobia,I think,In such a bad situation under,The two countries trade friction or very little.

　　展望2013年，中美之间的贸易形势如何，摩擦是会升级还是趋于缓和？摩根士丹利大中华区首席经济学家乔虹这样解读。

In 2013,Sino-us trade situation how,Friction will upgrade or easing?The greater China region, Morgan Stanley's chief economist QiaoHong read that way.

　　乔虹(摩根士丹利大中华区首席经济学家)：我觉得在13年，可能可以想见的是说整个的美国经济复苏的脚步还是比较慢，因此从我们国家来讲，这个从美国来的外需就相对来说是比较，增速比较缓慢，那么对我国出口压力的来说肯定还是强大的，那么在这种环境下，经济环境下，一般都引起的是从贸易的这个纠纷角度上来看，它可能会有比较多的一些，更多的一些争执，或者是冲突。但是这样的方式我相信还会再去WTO，或者通过一个正常的渠道来表达。

QiaoHong(Morgan Stanley chief economist in the greater China region):I think in 13 years,May want to see is said the U.S. economic recovery steps or slow,Therefore, from our country speaking,This from the United States is now relatively,Growth slow,So to our export pressure for sure or powerful,So in this kind of environment,Economic environment,Usually cause from trade this dispute perspective,It might have more some,Some of the more dispute,Or conflict.But this way I believe will go to WTO,Or through a normal channel to express.

　　王波明：美国戴着有色眼镜看待中国对其的投资

WangBoMing:The United States wear colored glasses look at China to its investment

　　(《央视财经评论》特约评论员)

([CCTV financial review]Guest commentators)

　　因为我们多年来的贸易顺差，使得全世界也确实有点攻中国，就是说你的贸易顺差，最高的时候咱们每年到2000到3000亿美金，就是顺差形成我们现在30000多亿的外汇储备。现在我们慢慢开始向外投资了，比如现在中国已经是美国最大的分散型投资，我们是美国最大投资国。现在11000多亿的美元债券是我们持有的，所以我们是美国最大投资国了。但是我们现在在说的问题是直接投资问题，我们今天刚到商务部了解，我们累积现在对外投资已经到4500亿到5000亿美金这么一个规模。

Because our years of trade surplus,Make the world also really a little against China,That is your trade surplus,The highest time let's each year to 2000 to $300 billion,Is surplus form we are now more than $30000 foreign exchange reserves.Now we start slowly outward investment,Such as China has now is America's largest dispersible investment,We are the largest investor.Now more than 11000 hundred million dollar bonds are we hold,So we are the largest the investor.But we are now in the said problem is direct investment,Today we just know to the ministry of commerce,Now we have accumulated foreign investment has to 450 billion to $500 billion such a scale.

　　我们累积的投资往美国去是100亿美金，4500亿美金和100亿美金，这100亿美金是一个很小的数字，也就是说，中国向美国投资根据两个大国的体量来讲是非常不相匹配的，那就说明中国往美国投资肯定出现了什么问题，这里头确实有心理障碍问题。包括我们的中投，就是2000亿美金，就是我们在负责外汇储备投资的公司，因为美国现在它有一个美国外国投资审查委员会，就是外国投资到美国有些项目都得它去审查，以前有个叫10%的规则，就是你一过10%，就说明你是在这个公司有比较重的参与感了，所以它一定要审查，它现在把投资的10%的规则降下来，甚至对中国是7%，它就认为是一个所谓叫重大交易，它一旦触动重大交易以后，它就要求对你各种审查。所以这样就使得中国到美国投资，美国戴着一个有色眼镜去看我们，那么这样一来，全世界其它国家也有很多好的项目，我不见得非得把资金投到美国去。

We have accumulated investment to the United States is $10 billion,$450 billion and $10 billion,The $10 billion is a very small number,that,China to the United States investment according to the two countries in terms of volume is very not matching,It shows that China to the United States investment must appear what's the problem,The first do have psychological problems.Including our bank,Is $200 billion,Is in charge of the foreign exchange reserves investment company,Because the United States now it has an American foreign investment review board,Is foreign investment to the United States some of the projects have to it to review,There's an old that 10% of the rules,Is you a 10%,That means you are in this company has a heavier the participation,So it must review,It is now 10% of the investment rules drop down,Even China is 7%,It is considered to be one of the so-called called major trading,Once it touches to the transaction of important later,It is required to you all kinds of review.So this makes China to the United States investment,The United States wearing a colored glasses to see us,So so,The world other countries also have a lot of good projects,I'm not really have to put money into the United States.

　　李若谷：中美之间的贸易维持着增长的态势

Made valley:The trade between China and the United States to maintain the growth trend

　　(《央视财经评论》特约评论员)

([CCTV financial review]Guest commentators)

　　中国经济发展这么快，这么快就能到美国去投资，而且投资的量和项目又比较多，美国对这种现象有点没有准备好，它觉得原来还是我到你那去投资，我支持你，我援助你，我帮助你，现在突然你回来解决我的困难了，在我资金缺乏的时候，你反而来帮我了，所以它对这样一个事实的接受需要有个过程。通过我们的工作，我想美国公众，包括美国政治人物也会逐渐的了解，我们并没有恶意，我们只是希望到它那去投资，挣到我们希望得到的回报，促进中美两国之间的经济的合作与发展，因为经济的发展需要大家共同努力，而且有序，公平、公开的市场建设，需要大家的共同努力。

China's economic development so fast,So quick to the United States to invest,And the amount of investment and project and more,The United States to this kind of phenomenon is a bit not ready,It felt like original or me to you that to invest,I support you,I help you,I help you,Now suddenly you come back to solve my difficult,I lack of funds in time,You have to help me,So it on such a fact accept need a process.Through our work,I want to the American public,Including the United States political figures will also gradually understand,We have not malicious,We just want to it to invest,Earn we hope to get rewards,Between the two countries to promote economic cooperation and development,Because the development of economy need to work together,And orderly,fair/Open market construction,Need everyone's joint effort.

　　我觉得中美贸易今年有所增长是正常的。过去每年中美贸易的增长速度都在20%，30%这个水平，今年只增长了9%左右，不管是进口还是出口，还是下滑了很多，虽然下滑了很多，但它还是保持了一个正增长的态势，就证明美国经济还是与其他的经济体相比，表现还是不错，所以中美之间的贸易还是维持了一个增长的态势。

I think that sino-us trade has increased this year is normal.In the past year sino-us trade growth rate are 20%,The 30% level,Only this year increased by 9%,Whether the import or export,Or dropped a lot,Although dropped a lot,But it still maintain a positive growth trend,That the U.S. economy or other economies than,Performance was good,So the trade between China and the United States still maintain a growth trend.

　　李若谷：中美贸易在摩擦中更加紧密相互依存

Made valley:Sino-us trade friction in more close interdependence

　　(《央视财经评论》特约评论员)

([CCTV financial review]Guest commentators)

　　中美之间的贸易，摩擦增多，实际上也是一种比较正常的现象，30多年以前，中美贸易很少，零，是从很少开始的。现在中美之间的贸易已经三、四千亿美元，由于从一个完全没有的水平发展到现在这样的一个水平，贸易摩擦增加是很正常的。今后中美之间在贸易的领域里的摩擦、争论还会继续下去。但中美经济的相互依存度已经比30，40年前大幅度提高，所以中美两国之间的贸易经济的共同利益大于我们之间的争吵和摩擦。所以我相信，奥巴马新一届政府虽然还会提出一些反倾销，反补贴的一些案例，但是我想中美贸易，中美国经济的总体方向是不断发展的。

The trade between China and the United States,Friction increase,In fact is also a more normal phenomenon,Thirty years ago,Sino-us trade seldom,zero,From little began.Now the trade between China and the United States has three/Four hundred billion dollars,Because from a no level development up to now such a level,Trade friction increase is very normal.In the future in the trade between China and the United States in the field of friction/Debate will continue.But the economy has been growing interdependence than 30,Forty years ago increased significantly,So the trade between China and the United States economy than the common interests of the quarrel between us and friction.So I believe that,Obama has a new government although also will propose some anti-dumping,Countervailing of some cases,But I want to trade between China and the United States,In the overall direction of the U.S. economy is growing.

　　从经济和金融的实力来说，美国要比中国强得多。因此它的对外投资肯定会比我们更大，这是第一个方面的原因。第二方面原因，中国对美国这个市场，就是最近这些年才刚刚有所接触，不是很了解，因此它进入这个市场也肯定不是那么容易，不可能在短期内积累大量的投资；第三，我们也必须承认，美国对中国的投资也抱有很多不该有的偏见和担心。

From the economic and financial strength of speaking,The United States will much better than China.So it's foreign investment must be greater than we,This is the first reasons.The second cause,China to the United States this market,Is the recent years just to have the contact,Is not very understanding,So it into this market also to be sure it is not so easy,Can't be in the short term accumulate a large amount of investment;The third,We also have to admit that,The United States to China's investment also have many ought not to some prejudice and worry.

　　李若谷：不相信中美之间会发生真正的贸易战

Made valley:Don't believe will happen between China and the United States real trade war

　　(《央视财经评论》特约评论员)

([CCTV financial review]Guest commentators)

　　在过去30多年里，中美已经获得了双赢，那么中国大量的质量比较好，价格比较公平的产品进入美国市场，帮助美国的消费者获得了非常好的回报。另外一个，也帮助美国经济可以保持一个相对比较低的通货膨胀率，因为价格比较便宜，他们已经得到好处了，从中美之间的经济合作，很多投资都是美国的投资者到中国来做的，那么它已经赚到了非常高的投资回报。

In the past thirty years,China and the United States has won a win-win situation,So the large number of Chinese quality is better,The price is fair products to enter the American market,Help the U.S. consumers get a good return.another,Also help the U.S. economy can maintain a relatively low rate of inflation,Because the price is cheaper,They have the benefit,From the economic cooperation between China and the United States,A lot of investment are American investors to China to do,So it has earned a very high return on investment.

　　因此，在整个经济环节里，美国各个方面消费者，分销商，还有投资人，进口商，都是从中受益的，包括普通的美国老百姓。当然在贸易中也出现了一些问题、摩擦等等，一些关于汇率的纠纷等等，但是我想这些问题都是可以在不断发展的贸易关系中获得解决的，中国也从来没有说过，要和美国去打贸易战。我们也不相信中美之间会发生一场真正的贸易战，但是这种摩擦总会出现的，因为两国关系越来越密切，才会出现摩擦，出现问题，如果你根本就八杆子打不着，不接触当然不会有问题，40年前，50年前可能就没有这么多贸易问题，因为我们没有贸易关系，对吗？所以我想中美之间的投资、贸易问题是可以不断解决的。另外中国对美国的了解，就是中国投资者对美国的了解是比较贫乏的。美国的法律体系是非常健全的一个经济体，那么它大量的法律知识，你要是去投资之前你要对它的政治体制，法律体系，还有经济的习惯，宗教领域，这些各个方面的情况，你都要进行充分的了解。

so,In the economy as a whole in the link,The United States consumer aspects,distributors,And investors,importers,Is the benefit,Including ordinary American people.Of course in the trade also appeared some problems/Friction and so on,Some disputes about exchange rate and so on,But I think these problems are in the continuous development of the trade relationship between the settlement,China also have never said,And the United States to play a trade war.We also don't believe that will happen between China and the United States a real trade war,But the friction will appear,Because more and more close relations between the two countries,Will appear friction,problems,If you don't unrelated,Don't contact of course won't have a problem,Forty years ago,Fifty years ago might not have so many trade issues,Because we have no trade relations,Do you?So I think the investment between China and the United States/Trade problem can be solved continuously.In addition to the understanding of China,Is the Chinese investors to the United States is relatively poor understanding.The American legal system is very perfect a economies,So it is a lot of legal knowledge,If you go to the investment before you to its political system,Legal system,Have the habit of economy,religion,These all aspects of the situation,You must fully understand.

　　王波明：在美国投资关键是法律

WangBoMing:In the United States investment key is legal

　　(《央视财经评论》特约评论员)

([CCTV financial review]Guest commentators)

　　其实去美国投资，最大的一个东西还是法律，特别是得请好了律师，如果投资额相当大的时候，宁愿多花一点钱去找美国的名牌律师事务所，虽然它贵一点，它叫DD，在审核的问题上，它会对你要投资对象进行一系列的审核，同时给你提出一系列，这块可能出现的法律问题，它会给你提出一个完整的方案。公关公司会帮你先做媒体的工作，甚至和当地的议员，大的公关公司都会帮你去做一些疏通工作。因为我们去投资，可能会认为你是被投资人，我是出钱方，什么事得你搞定，但是美国的系统不是这么简单，你如果投资额大，那会对当地经济产生重大影响，你要希望把这个事情做成，那你一定要把方方面面的事情做好。因为从各个地方都说，公关公司，媒体非常重要，就是让当地非常理解，就是说我们来投资，我们来是创造就业机会，我们是给当地的经济带来了发展，这样的话，当地比较容易接受中国的投资。如果你简单的说，我有钱我来投资，你们得听我们的，这样往往会对这个投资，从长远发展来讲是不好的。

Actually go to the United States investment,One of the biggest things or law,Especially to please good lawyer,If investment is quite old,Would rather spend a little money to find America's famous law firm,Although it is more expensive,It's called DD,On the question of the audit,It will do you want to investment object carries on a series of audit,At the same time give you put forward a series of,The possible legal issues,It will give you put forward a complete solution.Public relations company will help you to do the work of the media,Even and local Congressman,Large public relations company will help you to do some work clear.Because we to invest,May think that you are investors,I am pay party,What have you done,But the system is not so simple,If you big amount of investment,It will to have great influence on the local economy,You will want to make this thing,That you must bring all sorts of things well.Because from various places said,Public relations company,Media is very important,Is that local very understanding,That means we to invest,We come to create jobs,We are brought to the local economy development,so,Local easier to accept China's investment.If you simply said,I had money I to invest,You have to listen to us,So often on the investment,Will tell from long-term development is not good.

　　李若谷：在投资过程中要有良好的沟通和互动

Made valley:In the investment process must have good communication and interaction

　　(《央视财经评论》特约评论员)

([CCTV financial review]Guest commentators)

　　一个是对法律方面的知识很了解，另外一个就是美国的政治程序。在我们和美国交往的过程中，我们了解到，美国的州政府在很多项目的投资上有更大的发言权和决策权。因此我觉得中方的投资者应该首先，你不管到哪个州去投，应该和当地的政府有密切的沟通。另外它每个州都有州议会，也要和州议会的议员们有密切的沟通，了解我们来投资是干什么的，能为美国和中国共同创造哪些利益。另外，它每个联邦的参议员每个州都有一定的，众议员是按人口分的，那么参议员是每周两个。那么它也要对这些联邦的，本州的一些参议员，众议员进行接触，宣传自己的投资目的，投资效果等等，就是让他们明白，我们来投资是对美方，对当地是有好处的，沟通非常重要。另外，要和当地的媒体有很好的沟通和互动。让他们能够知道这个投资实际上是积极的，不是负面的，那么这样加强沟通，相互了解了以后，就会减少很多误会和不必要的麻烦。

One is to know well the legal aspects of knowledge,Another is the American political process.In the us and the United States in the process of communication,We know that,The state of the United States in a lot of project investment have more say and decision-making power.So I think the Chinese investors should first,You no matter which state to vote,Should and local government have close communication.In addition to its each state has the state legislature,Will and state lawmakers have close communication,To understand our investment is stem what of,For the United States and China together to create what interests.In addition,It every federal senator each state has certain,Representative is in terms of population of points,Then a week senator is two.So it also to the federal,Some of the state senator,Representative contact,To publicize their investment objectives,Investment effect, etc.,Is to make them understand,We come to investment is in the United States,It is good for the local,Communication is very important.In addition,And local media have very good communication and interaction.Let them to know the investment is actually positive,Not negative,It strengthens the communication,After the mutual understanding,Will reduce a lot of misunderstanding and unnecessary trouble.

　　李若谷：2013因为2012而更精彩！

Made valley:2013 for 2012 and more wonderful!

　　(《央视财经评论》特约评论员)

([CCTV financial review]Guest commentators)

　　2012年是充满包括欧洲的欧债危机，美国的财政悬崖等等各种困难的一年，但是它正因为有困难，你要克服这些困难，所以2013年肯定是一个克服困难获得发展的一年。

2012 years is full of including Europe's debt crisis,The United States financial cliff and so on all sorts of difficult years,But it is because there are difficulties,You have to overcome these difficulties,Therefore, the 2013 must be a overcome difficulties to develop a year.

　　.

.