目前，美国财政悬崖解决会商仍陷入僵局，成为全球资本市场短期动荡的根源，资本市场如同弹簧般伴随美两党谈判情形上下震荡。美国“财政悬崖”事态进展将如何影响中国经济？深圳商报记者采访的经济学家认为，美国“财政悬崖”或将使中国出口再度出现负增长，中国经济必须转向内需拉动。

At present,The United States financial cliff solve in consultation with still stalemate,Become a global capital market short-term roots of the unrest,The capital market as spring, with beautiful bipartisan negotiations situation and shock.The United States"Fiscal cliff"How will things progress affects the Chinese economy?Shenzhen commercial daily newspaper reporters economists think,The United States"Fiscal cliff"Or will make China's exports reemergence negative growth,China's economy must turn to domestic demand pull.

　　所谓美国的“财政悬崖”，是指小布什任内推行的税收减免政策到期，以及联邦政府全面减支的开始。时间均是明年1月2日开始实施。即将开始的大幅增税、减支计划，两项相加最高可达6000亿，目的是减赤以避免突破债务上限。花旗银行(中国)零售银行研究与投资分析主管邱思甥解释称，这一自动削减赤字机制的启动，会使美政府财政开支被迫突然减少，使支出曲线看上去状如悬崖，故得名“财政悬崖”。

The American"Fiscal cliff",Refers to the little bush under the implementation of the policy of tax reduction or exemption expires,And the federal government fully in order to start.Time all is on January 2 started.Is about to begin a big tax increases/In order to plan,Two additive highest can amount to 600 billion,Purpose is to reduce red to avoid breakthrough debt ceiling.citibank(China)Retail banking research and investment analysis competent QiuSi nephews explanation says,The automatic deficit reduction mechanism of the start,Can make us fiscal spending was forced to reduce suddenly,Make spending curve shape looks like a cliff,The name"Fiscal cliff".

　　据《华尔街日报》报道，明年增税5140亿美元会降低美国的国际竞争力，拖累经济增速。美国国会预算办公室预计，跌落“财政悬崖”会让美国2013年的国内生产总值(GDP)增长减少0.5个百分点，失业率升到9%以上。邱思甥称，目前，美国经济复苏尚蹒跚起步，增速仅为2%左右。

According to[The Wall Street journal]reports,Taxes next year $514 billion will reduce the international competitiveness of the United States,Drag growth.The congressional budget office has estimated that,drop"Fiscal cliff"Can let the United States in 2013 gross domestic product(GDP)Growth reduced by 0.5%,The unemployment rate up to 9%.QiuSi nephews says,At present,The United States economic recovery is still reeling started,Growth is only 2% or so.

　　美国财政悬崖事态发展将如何影响中国经济？

The United States financial cliff developments will affect how China's economy?

　　独立经济学家谢国忠表示，如果美国从“财政悬崖”上掉下来，按照测算美国经济增长速度可能下降3.5%，美国经济将陷入严重衰退，美国企业盈利将大幅下降，中国出口可能变成负增长，中国的GDP增速将更为缓慢。如果上述情况真的出现，也将可能导致中国政府再次出手救市。政府救市需要印钞票，货币超发则会再度引发泡沫经济，房地产也可能再度被热炒。

Independent economist Andy xie said,If the United States from"Fiscal cliff"fall,According to estimates the economic growth rate could fall 3.5%,The United States economy will fall into a serious recession,American corporate profits will decline dramatically,China's exports may become negative growth,China's GDP growth will be more slowly.If the above scenario,Will also may lead to the Chinese government to save the city out again.The government to save the city need to print money,Monetary super hair will reignite the bubble economy,Real estate also may again be folly.

　　中国社科院金融重点实验室主任刘煜辉则表示，美国“财政悬崖”即使发生，对中国经济直接冲击幅度也有限。他判断美国不可能一下从“财政悬崖”上掉下来，而可能是一步一步下来。他分析说，预测明年美国最多增税减支规模为2500亿美元。这一规模对美国GDP增速影响只有1.5%。美国国内经济增长势头可能消化掉这一影响。另外，即使受美国“财政悬崖”影响造成中国出口负增长，也不必过度担心。中国出口过去4年都不好，中国也出现过出口负增长，中国经济外需黄金期已经结束，一个事件不会对这种大势有多大影响。未来中国出口增速一定是个位数。即使美国财政悬崖妥善解决，美国经济强劲增长，中国出口增速也不会超过全球贸易平均增长速度。

By the Chinese academy of social sciences financial key laboratory LiuYuHui director, said,The United States"Fiscal cliff"Even if happen,A direct impact on China's economy is limited range.He could not judge the United States from it"Fiscal cliff"fall,And may be step by step down.He said the analysis,Forecast next year the most tax increases in order to scale for 250 billion dollars.The scale of the United States affect only 1.5% GDP growth.The domestic economic growth may digest the effect.In addition,Even by the United States"Fiscal cliff"Influence China's export negative growth,Don't too worry.China's exports over the past four years are not good,China has also been export negative growth,Now China's economic boom has ended,An event to this general trend will not have much impact.The future China's export growth must be a number.Even if the U.S. financial cliff properly solved,The American economy strong growth,China's export growth will not more than the average growth rate of global trade.

　　谢国忠称，美国“财政悬崖”一日不明确，一日将成为资本市场借机热炒的题材。不过，他推断这场全球关注的财政危机最可能出现的结局是继续拖下去。如果美国采取“拖延战略”，全球市场则会“不死不活很多年”，但黄金可能暴涨。大宗商品中的原油由于中东冲突可能上涨；农产品[4.54 0.22% 股吧 研报]有刚需也不会差，但工业品和金属则不会好。

Xie said,The United States"Fiscal cliff"A day is not clear,One day will become capital market storm looking to the subject matter.but,He reasoned that the global financial crisis on the most likely outcome is to continue to drag down.If the United States to take"Delay strategy",The global market will be"In an awkward position for many years",But gold may jump.Commodity of crude oil as Middle East conflicts may rise;Agricultural products [4.54 0.22% guba Research report] have just need to also can't bad,But industrial products and metal is not good.

　　谢国忠表示，我们关注美国“财政悬崖”发展，更应从中汲取教训，让中国经济发展更加稳健。他认为，不仅是美国债务过高，日本也一样。中国在很多方面和日本所走的路一样，甚至走得比日本更快。如果投资带动经济的模式不变，地方政府靠招商引资谋求发展的模式不变，那么中国也可能出现债务危机。中国经济必须改革。政府最需要让利减税，精兵简政。

Xie said,We pay close attention to the United States"Fiscal cliff"development,We should learn from it,Let China's economic development more robust.He thinks,Not only is the high debt,Japan also.In many ways China and Japan have the same way,Even go faster than Japan.If the investment of domestic economy mode is constant,The local government's investment promotion and capital introduction by seeking development mode is constant,So China is also likely to appear debt crisis.China's economy must reform.The government need most tax benefits,downsizing.