如今，伴随着经济结构性复苏，全球纺织服装产业正面临一系列内外部新形势：新兴经济体逐渐成为消费品进口市场，中国制造劳动力成本不断上升以及多项重量级自由贸易区协定颁布实施，这些因素都在一定程度上改写着全球纺织服装产业的格局。而其中又有哪些在深深影响着全球纺织品服装供应链模式?哪些因素或将成为判断全球纺织品服装贸易走势的可靠依据?尽管目前全球经济走势仍不明朗，但通过分析近5年全球纺织品服装贸易特点，或许能使我们判断行业走向时有据可循。

now,Along with the economic structural recovery,The global textile clothing industry is facing a series of internal and external new situation:Emerging economies gradually become consumer goods import market,China's manufacturing labor costs rising as well as a number of heavyweight free trade area agreement promulgated and implemented,All of these factors in a certain extent rewriting the global textile and garment industry pattern.And what of the deeply influenced the global textile and apparel supply chain model?What are the factors or judgment will be the global textile and apparel trade trends and reliable basis?Despite the current global economic situation is still uncertain,But through the analysis of the past five years the global textile and apparel trade characteristics,Perhaps we can make the judgment is according to the industry to follow.

　　纺织贸易对经济波动高度敏感

Textile trade on economic fluctuation highly sensitive

　　2005年配额取消以来，全球纺织品服装贸易走势呈现出较大波动。探究其中走势规律不难发现，全球纺织品服装贸易与世界经济发展同步，并且对经济波动高度敏感。根据世界贸易组织(WTO)最新发布的年度统计数据，2005~2011年全球纺织品服装出口增长率和世界经济增速发展走势基本吻合。当世界经济处于较快增长阶段(如2005~2007年)，纺织品服装贸易也呈现稳步增长。而2008~2010年世界经济陷入金融危机，贸易规模则随之一落千丈，其中2009年全球纺织品和服装出口额分别锐减15.5%和13.2%。

2005 years since the cancel of quota,The global textile and apparel trade trends present a major fluctuations.Explore the trend of law is not difficult to find,The global textile and apparel trade and the economic development of the world synchronization,And highly sensitive to economic fluctuations.According to the world trade organization(wto)The latest release of annual statistical data,2005 ~ 2011 global textile and apparel export growth rate and the world economic growth development trends are consistent with each other.When the world economy is in rapid growth stage(Such as 2005 ~ 2007),Textile and apparel trade also presents the steady growth.And 2008 ~ 2010 years the world economy into a financial crisis,Trade scale is then suffer a disastrous decline,The 2009 global textile and clothing exports cut by 15.5% and 13.2% respectively.

　　值得关注的是，全球纺织品服装贸易较宏观经济波动更为剧烈。例如，2011年世界经济增幅从2010年的5.2%降低为3.9%，全球纺织品服装出口额则大幅缩水25.7%和30.4%。这一现象与当前纺织品服装“全球制造”的生产模式不无关系。由于生产在各国间“流水作业”，因而“中间品贸易”规模可以数倍于成品贸易，当终端产品需求出现变化时，整条供应链上的贸易活动均受到连锁影响，震荡效应被放大。这也反映出当下全球纺织服装产业越发具有“一荣俱荣，一损俱损”的特点。另外，据国际货币基金组织最新发布的《世界经济展望》预测，受欧洲债务危机影响，2012年世界经济增速将进一步减缓至3.5%，预示着2012年全球纺织品服装贸易仍可能处于低谷状态。

There is concern,The global textile and apparel trade a macro economic fluctuation is more intense.Such as,The 2011 world economic growth of 5.2% in 2010, down from 3.9%,The global textile and clothing exports is shrunk dramatically by 25.7% and 30.4%.This phenomenon and the current textile and apparel"Global manufacturing"Production mode is relationship.Due to production in the countries"Operation flow",so"ZhongJianPin trade"Several times the scale can be finished products trade,When end product demand appears change,The whole supply chain of the trade activities have been chain effect,Shock effect be amplified.This also reflects the global textile and clothing industry has more"A glory and honor,mine"characteristics.In addition,According to the international monetary fund released the latest[The world economic outlook]prediction,By the European debt crisis,The 2012 world economic growth will be further slowed to 3.5%,Indicates the 2012 global textile and apparel trade could still in the doldrums state.