11月份中国外贸易数据公布后，国际国内再度掀起一波唱衰中国外贸的“大合唱”。唱衰者中，国内的“砖家”还多于国外的“砖家”。

China's foreign trade in November after the publication of data,The international and domestic lifted a wave again sing failure of China's foreign trade"chorus".Bad-mouthing those,domestic"Brick house"Still more than foreign"Brick house".

　　10月份中国出口同比增幅11.6%，到了11月份同比幅陡降至2.9%，外加年初确定的全年外贸增幅力求达到10%的目标肯定已无法实现。唱衰中国外贸似乎言之凿凿，很容易助长甚至左右众网友和国内民间舆论对国家外贸情势的悲观看法。

In October, China's exports year-on-year growth rate of 11.6%,By November up of steep drop to 2.9%,At the beginning of the year and determine the foreign trade growth strive to achieve the 10% target must have unable to realize.Sing south China trade seems to say with certainty,Very easy to encourage about even the net friend and domestic private opinion to the national foreign trade pessimism about the situation.

　　笔者不想挑明国内某些“砖家”为何非要不顾事实一个劲唱衰中国外贸乃至唱衰自己的祖国，因为但凡思维正常且具有一定辨别力的国人，对此皆心知肚明。笔者也深知中国外贸存在诸多结构性矛盾和困境，无意脱离事实盲目为中国外贸评功摆好。

The author don't want to TiaoMing domestic some"Brick house"For HeFei or the fact that sing failure strength of China's foreign trade and even bad-mouthing his country,Because in normal thinking and has a certain sense of the people,It is also.The author also know that China's foreign trade has many structural contradictions and difficulties,From the fact that not blindly for China's foreign trade evaluate achievements square.

　　笔者秉持讨论问题必须遵循一个基本原则，那就是实事求是。既不能对成绩视而不见——无视中国出口企业和进口出贸易商近亿从业者为此付出的辛勤汗水和心血，亦不可否认矛盾和问题歌功颂德说瞎话。

The author discuss the problem with a basic principle must be followed,That is seeking truth from facts.Can not turn a blind eye to the result, to ignore China's export enterprises and import the traders nearly workers pay of hard sweat and effort,Also there is no denying the ShuiXiaHua praises of contradictions and problems.

　　为此，笔者以今年前11个月作为时间跨度，对商务部、海关、国家统计局公开发布的外贸数据进行了多个层面的梳理分析和研判，继而得出了2012年中国仍是全球贸易“三好生”的客观结论。这一结论在宏观层面足以经受质疑和挑剔。

therefore,Based on the first 11 months of this year as a time span,By the ministry of commerce/The customs/The national bureau of statistics published foreign trade data to multiple levels of carding analysis and judge,And it is concluded that the 2012 China is still the world's trade"9"Objective conclusion.The conclusion in the macro level enough to undergo question and picky.

　　一好、中国外贸实绩依然在全球范围内最为靓丽

A good/China's foreign trade performance is still the most beautiful in the global scope

　　先以全球外贸作为比对参照。今年前11个月，中国外贸同比增幅为5.8%（其中出口同比增幅7.3%），全球外贸同比增幅大体为零。

To global trade as a comparison reference.The first 11 months of this year,China's foreign trade 5.8% yoy(The export the year-on-year growth rate of 7.3%),The global trade in the year-on-year growth rate to zero.

　　再看中国与四大贸易伙伴的贸易实绩。今年前10个月，中美贸易同比增幅9.1%，中国与东盟贸易同比增幅9.4%，中欧贸易同比下降3%，中日贸易同比下降2.3%。中美、中国与东盟贸易的同比增幅好于中国外贸的总体增幅。欧债危机和中日钩鱼鸟主权之争，拖了中欧和中日贸易整体增幅的后腿。

To see China and the four largest trading partner of trade performance.In the first ten months,Sino-us trade the year-on-year growth rate of 9.1%,China and asean trade the year-on-year growth rate of 9.4%,China's trade 3% year-on-year drop,Sino-japanese trade 2.3% year-on-year drop.China and the United States/China and asean trade year-on-year rate of increase in the overall growth of foreign trade is good.The debt crisis and the hook fish bird sovereignty rivalry,Drag the central and sino-japanese trade overall growth of the hind leg.

　　继而再比对今年前9个月全球主要贸易体的外贸增幅。中国6.2%，美国4.4%，日本2.9%，俄罗斯3.5%，德国负4.9%，法国负5%，意大利负9.5%。中国增幅位居第一。

Then again the first nine months of the year than major global trade body foreign trade growth.China's 6.2%,In the United States, 4.4%,Japan's 2.9%,Russia says it's 3.5%,Germany negative 4.9%,The French negative 5%,Italian negative 9.5%.China's growth in the number one position.

　　二好、中国外贸占全球市场份额继续扩大

Two good/China's foreign trade share of global market share continue to expand

　　一国外贸占全球外贸市场的份额大小，是衡量一国外贸发展后劲大小的一个重要质量评价指标，由于此前国内媒体对这一指标概念的普及率很低，许多国人对该指标比较陌生甚至于不甚了了。

One country foreign trade share of global trade market share size,It is to measure a country the size of foreign trade development in the future an important quality evaluation,Due to the previous domestic media to the index concept penetration is very low,Many people are more strangers to this index even do not quite understand.

　　去年中国外贸占全球市场的份额是10.5%，今年前9个月，这一重要占比提升至11.1%。表面看只提升了区区0.6个百分点，但非常可贵。因为这是在中国外贸总量增幅同比下滑态势下的“逆势上扬”。套用军事术语，若把全球贸易竞争视为“战争”，占比之“逆势上扬”，折射的是中国外贸的耐力和后劲。

Last year, China's foreign trade share of global market share is 10.5%,The first nine months of the year,This important than accounts for up to 11.1%.Surface see only promoted only 0.6%,But very valuable.Because this is the total amount of China's foreign trade growth year-on-year decline under the situation"Contrarian up".Form military terms,If global trade competition as"war",Than of"Contrarian up",Refraction is the China trade endurance and stamina.

　　三好、出口结构进一步改善

merit/To further improve the export structure

　　一说到中国出口产品的档次，某些已习惯于“自我矮化”的国人，总拿1亿件衬衫换一架波音飞机竭尽讽刺和挖苦。这是不是事实呢？是事实，而且这样的事实甚至难堪还将继续存在若干年，但却已不是事实的全部甚至于事实的大部。

Say to China export the grade of the product,Some have used to"Self dwarf"countrymen,Always take 100 million shirts in a Boeing aircraft do irony and sarcasm.This is true or not??Is the fact,And the fact that even embarrassed will continue to exist several years,But it is not the whole story even the most.

　　今年前10个月，中国机电产品出口占全部出口的比重已达54.2%，成为中国外贸由低端产品出口为主向中高端产品出口为主的一道历史分水岭。

In the first ten months,China's mechanical and electrical products export of all exports has reached 54.2%,Become China's foreign trade from the low end products are exported to the high-end product exportation primarily a historical divide.

　　再看分项。前10个月机电产品出口同比增幅8.5%，高于同期全部外贸出口增幅0.7个百分点；前10个月，集成电路出口数量增长22.6%，出口金额增幅53%。在全球电子产品生产极不景气的市场氛围下，集成电路出口能有22.6%的增长很值得自豪。在全球芯片单价一路下滑的另一市场态势下，中国出口金额增幅达到53%，至少又说明两条：其一、中国的集成电路没有倾销贱卖；其二、中国集成电路的品质跃升明显，如此才有出口单价的“逆势提高”。拿白话讲，就是中国的集成电路比以往值钱了；前10个月，部分高技术机电产品出口出现爆发式增长。在此仅举最为典型的高附加值铁路机车出口，前10个月同比增幅75.2%，出口金额同比增幅97%。

To see of.First ten months of mechanical and electrical products export the year-on-year growth rate of 8.5%,Above all the foreign trade export growth of 0.7%;Ten months before,Integrated circuit export quantity increase of 22.6%,Export value 53%.In the global electronic products production highly boom market atmosphere,Integrated circuit export to have 22.6% of the growth is very proud.In the global chip unit price all the way down another market under the situation,China's export amount a compound annual growth rate of 53%,At least two show again:one/China's integrated circuit no dumping for sale;The second/The quality of China's integrated circuit jumped significantly,So have the export unit price"Contrarian improve".Vernacular speak with,Is China's integrated circuit valuable than ever before;Ten months before,Part of the high technology and mechanical and electrical products export appear explosive growth.In this only for the most typical high value-added railway locomotive export,Ten months before the year-on-year growth rate of 75.2%,The amount of exports year-on-year growth rate of 97%.

　　行文至此，还不能不多说上几句。观察者网的粉丝们当还记得，去年“7.23”温州动车事故发生后，中国铁路发展、高铁装备制造，遭到一股不分缘由、不顾客观事实的“文革式大批判”，可一年多后，当众网友读到上述出口数据时，是否有勇气冷静检视当初全盘否定高铁建设和高铁技术的轻浮是那么的可叹、可悲和可笑？是否意识到当时认知事物的认识论和方式论都出现了明显的偏差？

Style so far,Still have to say a few words.The observer and the fans when remember,Last year"7.23"Wenzhou moving car after the accident,China's railway development/High iron equipment manufacturing,By a shares regardless of the reason/Regardless of the objective facts"The cultural revolution type mass criticism",But after more than a year,Public net friend read the export data,Whether has the courage to cool completely negative review had high iron construction and high iron technology is so frivolous how/Sad and funny?Whether aware of at the time of the cognitive things epistemology and mode theory has obvious deviation?

　　以上“三好”，皆有权威统计数据而非学界的某些所谓先入为主的“课题调研报告”作为依据。笔者要强调的是，揭示中国外贸宏观层面的“三好”，决非为了抹杀中国外贸微观层面的各种矛盾、问题和纠结，具体到某些企业的确困境重叠，度日如年；具体到某些行业和产业，比如光伏产业，欧美市场近乎对中国关闭了阶段性出口市场……

above"merit",All has authority statistics data rather than some of the scholars of the so-called first impressions are most lasting"Subject research report"As a basis for.The author want to emphasize,China's foreign trade reveals the macroscopic level"merit",China's foreign trade is not in order to kill the micro level of various contradictions/Problems and ravel,Specific to some enterprise really trouble overlap,Seems like a year;Specific to certain industries and industry,Such as photovoltaic industry,The European and American market to China almost closed stage export market...

　　更不可不察的是，全球经济明年仍将继续深陷萧条泥淖难以自拔，全球经济低速增长的态势仍将延续，各种贸易保护主义仍将加剧。因此，在明年，中国外贸仍将面临“三座大山”的重压：一是外部需求严重不足；二是国内要素成本持续上升，传统竞争优势继续弱化，再加上进口增幅持续低于出口增幅，导致贸易顺差和国际收支顺差继续扩大，人民币升值很难压住，给出口增长带来新的成本压力；三是贸易摩擦继续加剧。仅今年以来，中国已遭遇53起贸易救济调查，涉案金额242亿美元，同比增长7倍。中国出口明年面临的“双反”很可能甚过今年。

You are more was,The global economic recession next year will continue to go in the mud,The global economy low growth trend will continue,All kinds of trade protectionism will aggravate.so,In the next year,China's foreign trade will face"Three big mountains"The weight of:One is a serious shortage of external demand;The second is the domestic factor costs continue to rise,The traditional competitive advantage to continue weakening,Plus import growth below export growth continued,Lead to trade surplus and the international balance of payments surplus continued to expand,The appreciation of the renminbi is hard to pin,Export growth to bring new cost pressure;The third is trade friction continue to aggravate.Only since this year,China has encountered and the trade remedy investigation,Involving a value of $24.2 billion,Year-on-year growth of 7 times.China's export facing the next year"Double reverse"What is likely this year.

　　不过，“三座大山”的重压决不是我们妄自菲薄的理由，而恰恰是一种难得的“倒逼机制”，迫使中国政府和中国出口企业加快外贸结构和外贸方式的调整和提升。由此带来的“正能量”应该能够对冲甚至抵消掉“重压”带来的“负能量”。一言以蔽之，我们作为观察者和评论者，务必区分外贸成绩、发展态势与存在问题之间的谁主谁次。由小及大，评价中国的发展和存在的问题，也当持有同样的客观和“豁达”。

but,"Three big mountains"The weight of the reason of it is not our humbling,And just is a kind of rare"DaoBi mechanism",Force of the Chinese government and Chinese export enterprises to quicken the pace of foreign trade structure and trade mode adjustment and promotion.Which has"Positive energy"Should be able to hedge even offset"weight"brought"Negative energy".In a short,We as observers and critics,Be sure to distinguish between foreign trade performance/Development situation and problems of the Lord who time between who.The small and large,Evaluation of China's development and problems,Also when holding the same objective and"open-minded".

　　时移势易——重新返回到外贸话题，发展已步入“中场”的“中国出口”，拥有充分利用时势的“势场”！

Things have changed - back to the topic of foreign trade,Development has stepped into"midfielder"of"China's export",Have make full use of time"Potential field"!