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明年中国大家电出口“冰火两重天”--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-12-21
2013年,我国家电产品的出口额占全球出口份额会小幅提升,出口增速也将上升5个百分点左右。
In 2013,,China's household electrical appliance product exports account for global export share will improve slightly,Export growth will also rise by about 5%.
根据《中国家用电器工业十二五发展规划》中设置的目标,到“十二五”末,中国家电工业总产值由原定的1.1万亿元,将提高到1.5万亿元,上调近四成,年均增长率为9.2%。此外,家电出口额目标由原来的500亿美元提高到600亿美元,在全球出口市场的比重将达到35%。
According to the[China's household electrical appliance industry 1025 development planning]In setting goals,to"1025"end,The Chinese electrical appliances gross industrial output value from the original 1.1 trillion yuan,Will increase to 1.5 trillion yuan,Raised nearly forty percent,With an average annual growth rate of 9.2%.In addition,Home appliance exports from the original target of $50 billion increased to 60 billion us dollars,In the proportion of the global export market will reach 35%.
30年来,中国家电出口额仅在2009年金融危机爆发时有所下滑,在2010年又创造了历史新高。目前中国家电出口额占世界家电总出口额的20%左右。2012年,我国家电出口的份额在主要市场未见减少,但全年的出口增幅较去年有明显下滑,预计2012年全年家电产品的出口额为570亿美元左右。
30 years,The Chinese electrical appliances exports in 2009 alone the outbreak of the financial crisis has slipped down,In 2010 and created a record high.At present the Chinese electrical appliances exports account for 20% of the total export world electrical appliances around.In 2012,,China's household electrical appliance export share in the main market did not see reduce,But the annual export growth last year a significant slowdown,In the whole year of 2012 is expected to electrical appliances product exports for 57 billion dollars.
主要产品出口增幅回落
The main products export growth dropped
1~10月,白色家电的出口额为480亿美元,较2011年同期增长7.7%。
1 to October,White home appliance's exports to 48 billion us dollars,Than the same period in 2011 increased by 7.7%.
2012年,家电出口市场各月均保持增长趋势,但增幅较去年同期明显回落。其中空调器的出口量为3927.6万台,较去年同期下降3.7%,月出口同比更是一直在低位徘徊,直到第三季度末才有所回升。冰箱及冷柜产品的出口量与去年基本持平,为2841.8万台。与大起大落的空调市场相比,冰箱出口市场可以用“不温不火”来形容。
In 2012,,The standard of home appliance export market growth trend,But growth than the same period last year dropped significantly.The air conditioner export volume for 39.276 million sets,Compared to the same period last year dropped 3.7%,Year-on-year on export is always in the low end,Until the third quarter to have rebounded.Refrigerators and freezers product exports and flat last year,For 28.418 million sets.Compared with the dramatic ups and downs of the air conditioning market,Refrigerator export market can use"tepid"To describe.
自2011年初至今年上半年,冰箱出口量基本稳定,但9月份同比开始上扬,且创下了10年来9月份的最高单月出口量。增长的主要原因一方面是西方国家为圣诞节补充库存,另一方面是因为9月时欧盟就欧债危机达成了阶段共识,因此我国对美国9月单月冰箱出口较去年同期增长79%,对英国9月单月冰箱出口较去年同期增长105.4%。
Since the early 2011 to the first half of this year,Refrigerator exports basically stable,But September began to rise up,And in the past ten years in September, the highest monthly performance exports.The main cause of that growth on the one hand is the western country for Christmas replenish stock,On the other hand because September that the eu is the debt crisis reached consensus on stage,So our country to the United States on September month a refrigerator export growth of 79% compared to the same period last year,The British September month a refrigerator export growth of 105.4% compared to the same period last year.
与寒冷的国内洗衣机市场相比,1~10月洗衣机产品出口量逆势上扬,较去年同期增长11%,为1822万台,且中小型企业的出口也有明显增长。其中波轮式洗衣机增幅较大,1~10月出口量较去年同期增长27.3%,特别是对美国出口量同比增长300%,对北非国家的出口快速恢复,对利比亚出口同比增长16倍。
And the cold of the domestic washing machine compared to the market,1 to October washing machine product exports rose contrarian,Compared to the same period last year growth of 11%,For 18.22 million sets,And small and medium-sized enterprise exports also has the obvious growth.The pulsator washing machine was bigger,1 to October exports increased by 27.3% compared with the same period last year,Especially in the American exports year-on-year growth of 300%,To north Africa countries export quick recovery,To Libya exports year-on-year growth of 16 times.
2012年总体出口减少的主要原因是主要出口市场消费需求出现下降。以空调器为例,2011年1~9月,进口规模排名前10的国家中有6个都有不同程度的下降,欧洲发达市场下降尤为突出。如俄罗斯空调器产品进口额较去年同期减少30%,意大利减少33.7%,德国减少30.9%,法国减少28.2%。与此同时,2011年前三季度主要进口国家从中国进口的份额未见减少,以空调产品为例,在进口下降的国家中,2012年上半年意大利从中国进口空调产品的份额较2011年同期提高了2.5个百分点,德国提高1个百分点;而在进口增长的市场中,美国从中国进口空调产品的份额同比提高1.5个百分点,日本提高了5个百分点,其他市场也保持相对稳定。
Total exports in 2012 to reduce is the main reason of the main export market consumption demand decline.With air conditioner, for example,January to September in 2011,Import scale top 10 countries have six have varying degrees of decline,The developed European market decline is particularly prominent.Such as the Russian air conditioner product imports than the same period last year decreased by 30%,Italy reduced by 33.7%,Germany reduced by 30.9%,The French reduced by 28.2%.meanwhile,2011 years ago the third quarter import countries share of imports from China to reduce not seen,With air conditioning products as an example,Drop in import countries,In the first half of 2012 Italy air conditioning products imported from China's share is the same period in 2011 increased by 2.5%,Germany is increased by 1%;And in import growth in the market,The United States air conditioning products imported from China's share of 1.5% year-on-year increase,Japan increased by 5%,Other markets are also remained relatively stable.
欧美市场差异明显
The European and American market differences are significant
2012年以来,欧美两大经济体经济景气度持续分化,我国对两大市场的出口也出现明显差异。
Since 2012,Europe and the United States two big economies the boom of economy for differentiation,The two big market in our country exports also appears obvious difference.
欧美是我国家电产品出口的主要市场。2011年,我国对美国家电产品出口占我国家电总出口额的20.4%,对欧盟原15国的出口额占总出口额的18.7%,两大市场相加约占四成份额。2012年第一季度以来,美国经济缓慢复苏,欧债危机反而阴霾不散,两大经济体经济景气度持续分化,我国对两大市场的出口也体现出消费信心的明显差异。
Europe and the United States is China's household electrical appliance products are exported to major markets.In 2011,,Our country to the American electrical appliances product export accounts for 20.4% of China's household electrical appliance total exports,To the original 15 countries exports account for 18.7% of the total export,Two big market additive about forty percent share.Since the first quarter of 2012,The United States the slow economic recovery,The debt crisis but haze do not come loose,Two big economies the boom of economy for differentiation,The two big market in our country exports also reflects the obvious differences in consumer confidence.
2012年欧元区PMI一路走低,6、7月短暂反弹后,9月跌至新低。10月欧元区制造业PMI小幅上扬,但第四季度经济前景仍不容乐观。经济形势不景气直接影响就业率与消费需求。1~10月,我国对欧盟家电出口额较去年同期减少2.7%,如果再计算上出口平均单价升高的因素,我国对欧洲出口的实际降幅达到10%。下滑主要集中在欧元区国家,如单独统计我国对欧盟原15国家电产品的出口量,则均较去年同期大幅减少。其中我国对欧盟原15国空调器出口量较去年同期减少34%,冰箱减少14.3%,小家电产品出口额除个别产品外,也均较去年同期两位数下滑。
In 2012 the euro zone PMI dropping,6/July after short rebound,September fell to a new low.October the eurozone manufacturing PMI to rise slightly,But the fourth quarter economic outlook is not optimistic.Economic situation depression directly influence the employment rate and consumption demand.1 to October,The European Union in China home appliance exports than the same period last year decreased by 2.7%,If recompute the export average unit price rising factors,China export to Europe the actual fell to 10%.Glide mainly concentrated in the eurozone countries,Such as the European Union statistics alone in the original 15 national electric products exports,Compared to the same period last year, are substantially reduced.The our country to the original 15 countries air conditioner exports than the same period last year decreased by 34%,Refrigerator reduced by 14.3%,Small home appliance products export products in addition to the individual outside,Also than the same period last year double-digit decline.
与此同时,产品降幅较大的国家,也是受经济危机影响比较严重的欧盟国家。其中我国对意大利家电出口额同比减少17.7%,对西班牙减少24.6%,对荷兰减少19.8%。尽管欧债危机的影响趋于稳定,但11月欧元区失业率再创新高,法国经济也开始面临危机,欧债危机带来的后续影响开始显现,2013年对欧洲出口难见明显复苏。
meanwhile,Products by large countries,By the economic crisis is affecting more serious eu countries.The China home appliance to Italy to reduce 17.7% year-on-year exports,The Spanish reduced by 24.6%,The Dutch reduced by 19.8%.Although the influence of European debt crisis tends to be stable,But on November the eurozone unemployment hit a record high,The French economy began to face crisis,The debt crisis brings the following influence began to appear,2013 European exports to hard to see clear recovery.
与此形成鲜明对比的是,2012年以来,美国经济和消费需求缓慢复苏。11月份美国消费者信心指数为73.7,相比此前10月份的72.2再创新高,美国人对就业市场和个人收入前景更为乐观。1~10月,我国对美国家电产品的出口额较去年同期增长13.6%,市场持续复苏,也带动了整个北美地区以及墨西哥的家电进口量。数据显示,1~10月,我国对北美洲空调器、冰箱和洗衣机等主要家电产品出口量、价齐升。其中空调器出口增长14.4%,洗衣机增长105%,冰箱及冷柜增长10%。小家电产品中除电吹风机和烤面包器的出口量较去年同期小幅下降外,其他小家电产品的出货量都有明显增幅,干手器对北美的出口量较去年同期更是大幅增长865%。
By contrast,Since 2012,The U.S. economy and consumption demand slow recovery.November U.S. consumer confidence index is 73.7,Compared with previous October 72.2 hit a record high,Americans on employment market and personal income is more optimistic prospect.1 to October,Our country to the American electrical appliances product exports increased by 13.6% compared with the same period last year,Markets continue to recovery,Also contributed to the throughout North America and Mexico's home appliance imports.Data display,1 to October,Our country to North America air conditioner/Refrigerators and washing machines and other major home appliances products exports/Price JiSheng.The air conditioner export growth of 14.4%,The washing machine increase of 105%,Refrigerators and freezers growth of 10%.Small home appliance products in addition to electric hair dryer and toaster's exports fell slightly outside than the same period last year,Other small home appliance product shipments have obvious growth,Hand dryer to North America's exports more than the same period last year growth of 865%.
抓住机遇加快全球布局
Seize the opportunity to speed up the global layout
中国家电企业应抓住市场机遇,通过并购、赞助赛事、建设渠道等方式进行全球市场布局。
The Chinese electrical appliances enterprise should seize market opportunities,Through the merger and acquisition/Sponsored events/Construction channels of global market layout mode.
展望2013年,美国经济体维持温和复苏有望,欧元区经济体或见底,GDP增幅前低后高。我国家电对美出口仍有望保持增长,对欧出口下行压力逐渐缓解,下滑幅度将较今年收窄。总体而言,2013年我国家电产品的出口占全球出口份额依然会小幅提升,出口的增速也会上升5个百分点左右,并且将呈现出以下几个特征:
In 2013,The United States economy is expected to maintain moderate recovery,The euro-area economy or see bottom,GDP growth after low high before.China's household electrical appliance exports to America are still expected to maintain growth,Exports to Europe gradually alleviate downward pressure,This year will decline range is narrow.In general,In 2013, China's household electrical appliance products export share of global export share will still small ascension,The rate of growth of exports will also rise by about 5%,And will take on the following several characteristics:
一是出口市场份额继续向新兴市场倾斜。最近几年,亚非拉新兴市场快速崛起,成为拉动中国家电出口日益重要的动力,尤其是巴西、委内瑞拉、俄罗斯、东南亚等地区对中国家电产品进口增长迅速。新兴市场的经济保持增长,产品定位较低且需求量与日俱增,有利于中国企业的产品推广。从长期来看,欧美经济持续下滑的可能性依然存在,新兴市场的地位将日益重要,出口市场主要增长点将集中到南美、东欧和非洲等新兴经济体。
One is the export market share continue to tilt the emerging markets.In recent years,The rapid rise in emerging markets and Latin America,Pull the Chinese electrical appliances export become an increasingly important power,Especially Brazil/venezuela/Russia/Southeast Asia and other regions of the Chinese electrical appliances product import growth rapidly.Emerging market economy growing,Product positioning is low and the increasing demand,For Chinese enterprise to promote the product.In the long run,Europe and the United States continued economic downturn still possible,Emerging markets will be more and more important position,The main export market growth will focus to South America/Eastern Europe and Africa, and other emerging economies.
二是国际金融危机后出口依存度逐渐降低。据商会统计,国际金融危机前,2007年我国空调外销占比为55%,而2012年1~10月,我国空调产品外销比例降为34%;2007年冰箱外销占比为40%,到2012年,外销比例下降为30%;洗衣机的外销从2007年的40%下降为2012年的33%。
The second is the international financial crisis gradually reduce the ratio of dependence on export.According to the statistics of the chamber of commerce,Before the international financial crisis,In 2007, air conditioning export accounts for more than 55%,And 2012 years 1 to October,Our country air conditioning products export ratio dropped to 34%;2007 refrigerator export accounts for more than 40%,By 2012,Export proportion reduced to 30%;Washing machine export decline from 40% in 2007 to 33% in 2012.
与乏力的出口市场相比,近年来国内家电市场整体规模保持了近30%的增幅,这与“家电下乡”、“节能惠民”和“以旧换新”等政策的拉动密不可分。仅2011年,全国“家电下乡”产品销售超过1.03亿台,实现销售额2641亿元。截至2011年末,全国累计销售家电下乡产品2.18亿台,相当于国家用592亿元拉动了5000多亿元的农村消费。2013年城镇化工作将被提升到更高层面,伴随的家电刚性需求也会不断释放。
And weak compared to the export market,In recent years the domestic home appliance market overall scale keep nearly 30% of growth,this"Home appliances to the countryside"/"Energy-saving we"and"With the old in the new"Policies are closely related to the pull.Only 2011 years,the"Home appliances to the countryside"Product sales more than 103 million sets,Achieve sales of 264.1 billion yuan.By the end of 2011,The total sales of home appliances to the countryside 218 million sets of products,Equivalent to countries with 59.2 billion yuan pull the more than 5000 yuan of the rural consumption.In 2013, the urbanization work will be promoted to a higher level,The home appliance with rigid demand will continue to release.
三是中国品牌销售比率逐年增加。2011年1月11日,工业和信息化部制定并发布了《关于加快我国家用电器自主知名品牌建设的指导意见》。《意见》提出:到2015年,行业80%以上企业制定实施明确的品牌战略;研发投入强度不低于3%,自主品牌出口比例不低于30%;形成3至5个拥有较强自主创新能力、在国际市场具有较高影响力和竞争力的优势自主品牌。从目前的情况来看,尽管我国家电行业出口的自主品牌比例仍不足20%,但在世界各大家电卖场的品牌销售份额却逐年提高。据欧睿咨询公司对世界主要家电卖场销售统计,2011年海尔继续以7.8%的份额蝉联全球家电卖场销售的桂冠,其次是LG和惠而浦。2011年,全球销售排名前20的中国品牌份额都有不同程度的增长,其中美的从2007年2%的份额增长到3.4%,格兰仕为1.5%,小天鹅为1.2%,新飞为1.1%。
The third is the Chinese brand sales ratio increases year by year.On January 11, 2011,Ministry of industry and information develop and released[About the acceleration of China's household electrical appliance autonomous well-known brand construction guidance].[opinion]Put forward:By 2015,Industry more than 80% for the implementation of the enterprise clear brand strategy;R&d investment strength not less than 3%,The independent brand export proportion is less than 30%;Form three to five have strong ability of independent innovation/In the international market with high influence and competitiveness independent brand.According to the current situation,Although China's household electrical appliance industry export proportion of independent brand is still less than 20%,But in the world, everyone's electricity market share of the sales of brand is increased year by year.According to the consulting firm, to the world's major home appliance sells sales statistics,In 2011, haier continue to 7.8% share of global straight home appliance sells the crown of sales,The second is LG and whirlpool.In 2011,,Global sales of the top twenty Chinese brand share all have different degrees of growth,The beautiful from 2007 a share of 2% to 3.4%,Galanz is 1.5%,Little swan is 1.2%,New fly is 1.1%.
三是企业应抓住机遇布局全球。2012年,从三大日本家电厂商索尼、夏普、松下的销售额和营业损益来看,销售额均同比下降,3家合计亏损接近200亿美元。而欧洲几个大的白电品牌如西门子、伊莱克斯,从2004年到2009年,年复合增长率只有1.2%和2%。以上种种的情况反映出一个共同的趋势,即由于国际金融危机的影响逐渐扩大,传统的白电产业面临大转移的战略机遇。市场单一、依存度高的品牌,尤其是对欧美市场依存度较大的品牌,势必要作出决策和调整,否则将无法维继。
Three is the enterprise should seize the opportunity layout global.In 2012,,From the three Japanese electrical home appliances manufacturers SONY/sharp/Panasonic sales and business profit and loss to see,All sales year-on-year decline,Three total loss of nearly $20 billion.And several European big white electric brand such as Siemens/electrolux,From 2004 to 2009,Years at a compound rate of only 1.2% and 2%.Above all kinds of situation reflects a common trend,By the international financial crisis influence gradually expand,The traditional white electric industries are facing a big transfer of strategic opportunities.Market single/The high ratio of dependence on the brand,Especially for the European and American market larger ratio of dependence on the brand,Certainly will want to make a decision and adjustment,Otherwise, will not be able to continue their present programme.
中国家电企业应抓住市场机遇:一方面通过并购国外品牌,提高发达国家的家电市场占有率,提升品牌份额和产品档次;另一方面,在新兴市场通过投资建厂,合作生产规避贸易壁垒;同时,利用对外援助以及发展基金等有利政策,以及主动赞助赛事,建设渠道等方式在非洲国家等大力发展自主品牌。合理布局,抢占全球市场先机,取得家电产品的国际定价权等核心竞争力。
The Chinese electrical appliances enterprise should seize market opportunities:On the one hand through mergers and acquisitions of foreign brands,The developed countries to improve the home appliance market share,Promote the brand share and product class;On the other hand,In emerging markets through the investment and construction,Cooperative production avoiding trade barriers;At the same time,Use of foreign aid and development fund and favorable policies,And the initiative sponsored events,Construction methods such as channel in Africa state, vigorously develop the independent brand.Reasonable layout,Take the global market opportunities,Get home appliance product international pricing and core competitiveness.
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