以内需为导向的经济增长对我国工业经济转型有着非常重大影响。

With domestic demand as the guide to the economic growth of our country industry economic transformation has a very important influence.

　　2012年对中国和世界而言是一个机遇之年。虽然欧美债务危机还在持续发酵使得全球经济复苏态势缓慢，但债务危机对于整体经济的影响并不是致命性的，公共部门负债并不是经济复苏的决定因子。对于欧美债务危机，我们应该用更加宏观和开放的角度来审视。同理，对于2012年中国经济的总结以及对2013年经济情况的预期，应当建立在对于欧债危机的理性解读之上。

2012 years of China and the world is a year of opportunity.Although Europe and the United States debt crisis continues fermentation made the global economic recovery situation slowly,But the debt crisis for the overall economy's influence is not fatal,The public sector debt is not economic recovery decision factor.For Europe and the United States debt crisis,We should use a more macro and open Angle to look at.By the same token,In 2012 China's economy and the summary of 2013 economy expected,Should be built on the debt crisis on the rational interpretation.

　　以欧美为鉴

In Europe and the United States in the light

　　2008年，由美国始发的金融危机席卷全球。从经济周期和技术周期耦合逻辑上来观察，这其实是新制造产业群尚未出现，金融业替代创新、试图形成创新产业群的过程。欧债危机不仅是福利制度安排造成的长期问题，从产业群成长角度看，这还是西方经济60年间经济周期和技术周期耦合结构失衡造成的金融危机后公共部门债务表现。

In 2008,,By the American originating financial crisis sweeping the globe.From the economic cycle and technology cycle coupled logic up observation,It is a new manufacturing industry group has not appeared yet,The financial industry substitution innovation/Try to form the innovative process of industrial clusters.The debt crisis is not only a welfare system arrangement caused by the long-term problems,From the perspective of industrial growth,This is the western economic sixty years economic cycle and technology cycle coupling structure imbalance after the financial crisis caused by the public sector debt performance.

　　欧美债务危机对中国的影响，首先是债务危机可能降低欧美国民的购买能力，从而间接降低对我国的出口需求，产生连带影响。另外，受债务危机影响，欧美国家产业创新能力减弱，在产业前沿的推进上，可供中国企业借鉴的欧美经验集合变小，高速成长趋势因自身创新成本增大而开始放缓。综合起来，我个人认为，欧美债务危机对中国经济走势的影响并不太大。

Europe and the United States debt crisis impact to China,The first is debt crisis may reduce Europe and the United States national purchasing power,Thus indirectly reduce on China's export demand,Produce joint influence.In addition,Influence by the debt crisis,The European and American countries industry innovation ability is abate,In the forefront of industry promote,For Chinese enterprises in the United States and Europe set smaller experience,High-speed growth trend due to its own innovation cost increase and began to slow.Comprehensive up,Personally, I think,Europe and the United States debt crisis on China's economic situation of the influence is not too big.

　　同理，我认为新一轮经济增长的钥匙，既不在凯恩斯主义的扩大投资组合中，也不在新自由主义的市场设计集合里。凯恩斯主义和新自由主义的决策只能带来短期增长效果。当战后几十年间人们把凯恩斯主义和新自由主义发挥到极致的时候，这种单靠市场和公共部门投资来配置资源的潜力已经挖掘得差不多了。新一轮的经济增长，人们还得寻求创造力。如果没有大的技术创新带动新的产业群出现，2013年中国经济的走势基本上会与今年持平，不会出现太大的变化。

By the same token,I think a new round of economic growth of the key,Neither in Keynesian expand investment portfolio,Is not in the new liberalism market design in the set.Keynesian and new liberalism decision can only lead to short-term growth effect.When the postwar decades people Keynesian and new liberalism to make the most time,This single on the market and the public sector investment to deploy resources potential has been mining get about.A new round of economic growth,People have to seek creativity.If there is no big technology innovation drive new industries appeared,In 2013, China's economic situation will basically the same with this year,Won't appear too big change.

　　随着金融危机的加深，全球贸易保护主义有所抬头。这对拉动中国经济发展的“三驾马车”中的净出口有比较大的影响，如果贸易保护主义继续加深，明年中国经济的出口形势仍不容乐观。

With the deepening of financial crisis,Global trade protectionism is somewhat burgeoning.The pull of China's economic development"troika"The net exports have bigger influence,If trade protectionism continues to deepen,China's economy next year export situation is still not optimistic.

　　面对全球贸易保护主义的抬头，中国企业有三条路可走：首先，区域替代。中国企业应在继续保持原来存量贸易的对外国家的基础上，强化和非洲、南美洲以及太平洋(601099,股吧)等地区之间的对外贸易；其次，技术替代。当处在出口调整期的时候，企业应该加强技术创新和产品研发，调整产业链，从低端制造向高端制造拓展市场；第三，国际替代。出口企业应两条腿走路，一方面保持海外的出口，另一方面，出口企业可以把在海外贸易的先进经验带回到国内的省域贸易之间。

In the face of global trade protectionism looked up,Chinese enterprises have three way:First of all,Area replacement.Chinese enterprises should continue to maintain the original stock trade on the basis of foreign countries,Reinforcement and Africa/And South America, and the Pacific(601099,guba)And other regions between the foreign trade;secondly,Technology substitution.When in export adjusting period time,Enterprises should strengthen the technical innovation and product development,Adjust industrial chain,From low-end manufacturing high-end manufacturing to develop the market;The third,International alternative.Export enterprises should walk on two legs,On the one hand keep overseas export,On the other hand,The export enterprises can take in the overseas trade advanced experience back to domestic provincial trade between.

　　回顾2012

Review 2012

　　2012年全球经济增长趋缓，在全球经济不景气的情况下，中国经济的发展主要呈现五个方面的特点：第一，大规模制造业领域出现了调整趋势。调整产能过剩，寻找新的投资领域。第二，中国的出口企业开始回归国内市场。出口企业的观念发生变化，中国的优质和超大规模的市场特质被中国企业发现。第三，企业家资源在重组。在大规模的制造领域里，过去企业追求做大做强，而现在，经过2012年这场大变革，中国企业家团队开始重新认识投资的方向，寻找融资的途径。第四，非银行业金融机构出现。在国内的社会融资当中，来自于银行、工商企业的信贷不再占据社会融资的主要部分，非银行业金融机构的出现使得货币与资源在连接当中，通货膨胀的水分变小，而经济规模仍保持不变。第五，国内的信息化和现代服务产业取得了突破。过去人们不知道服务产业里会有工业类产品，而现在有些企业真正实现了服务产业与工业制造车间里一样的流程，服务业产业群因此有了升级的可能性。在我看来，工业化和信息化的融合是未来经济增长的一个重要源头。

In 2012, the global economic growth to slow down,In the global economic recession,The development of China's economy mainly presents the characteristics of the five aspects:The first,Large-scale manufacturing domain appeared adjustment trend.Adjust excess capacity,Looking for new investment fields.The second,China's export enterprises began to return to the domestic market.Export enterprise idea change,China's high quality and very large scale market characteristics of Chinese enterprises is found.The third,Entrepreneurs resources in restructuring.In large-scale manufacturing fields,The pursuit of enterprises bigger and stronger,And now,After 2012 years the big change,Chinese entrepreneur team began to know the direction of the investment,Looking for financing way.The fourth,The banking financial institutions appear.In the domestic society of financing,From the bank/Business credit no longer occupies the main part of social financing,The emergence of the banking financial institutions make money and resources of the connection,Inflation water smaller,And economic scale remain unchanged.The fifth,The domestic information and modern service industry have made a breakthrough.In the past, people don't know in the service industry will have industrial products,But now some enterprises to truly realize the service industry and industrial manufacturing plant in the same process,Service industry group therefore has the possibility of the upgrade.In my opinion,Industrialization and information fusion is the future economic growth an important source of.

　　2012年，我国制造业的劳动力成本普遍上升。我认为，这是一件好事，这会加快国内制造业从劳动密集向技术密集的转型升级。劳动力成本的上升使制造业的单位货币产出提高，从而促进企业改进技术。在劳动成本增加的同时，一部分工资会带动劳动质量的提高，这样一来，资本的单位投资回报率也相应提高了。在整个经济当中，要素替代弹性最高的是劳动力，劳动要素是最活跃、最富于创新性的要素。所以劳动力成本的提高会对企业造成一定伤害，但是它同时也激励着企业创新和劳动力资源的优化配置，这其实是经济增长的动力。

In 2012,,Chinese manufacturing labor costs rise generally.I think,This is a good thing,This will speed up domestic manufacturing from the labor intensive to technology intensive transformation and upgrade.The rising labor costs of manufacturing unit monetary output increase,So as to promote enterprises to improve technology.In the labor costs at the same time,Part of their salary will promote the improvement of the quality of labor,so,The unit of capital it can raise the rate of return on investment.In the whole of the economy,Elements elasticity of substitution is the highest labor force,Labor is the most active factor/The most rich in innovative elements.So the improvement of labor costs to the enterprise cause certain harm,But it also encourage enterprise innovation and the optimal allocation of labor resources,It is economic growth.

　　面对劳动成本的上升，中国制造业企业应该未雨绸缪，除了进行产业转移，寻找新的要素组合的领域和方向之外，还应该提高创新能力，优化资源配置，淘汰落后产能。

In the face of rising labor costs,China's manufacturing enterprises should take precautions,In addition to industrial transfer,Looking for new elements combination of field and outside direction,Should also improve the innovation ability,Optimize allocation of resources,Elimination of backward production capacity.

　　中国制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）在经历了连续4个月的下滑后，今年10月份公布的PMI指数终于重新回到了50%的临界点上。但PMI是一个先行数字，先行数字发展到成长数据大约需要半年时间，现在的数据还不足以反映经济向好和出现反弹，只有通过连续34个月的观察后，我们才能对经济是否触底反弹作出判断。

China's manufacturing purchasing managers' indices(PMI)After four months of fall,In October this year published PMI index finally returned to 50% of the critical point.But PMI is a leading digital,First digital development to growth data about half a year,Now, it is not enough to reflect the economic data is going well and rebounded,Only through continuous 34 months after observation,We can touch the bottom of the economy will rebound to judge.

　　放眼2013

In 2013

　　在全球经济走势趋暖和贸易保护主义抬头等经济大背景下，我认为，2013年可能会是我国进出口导向的一个重要拐点。虽然目前我国不是以内需拉动为主要增长模式，但是在明年，内需消费有可能成为经济发展“三驾马车”中最重要的部分。

In the global economy to warm trend of trade protectionism growth and economic background,I think,2013 May is China's import and export oriented an important inflection point.Although at present our country not to pull domestic demand as the main growth pattern,But in next year,Domestic consumption could be economic development"troika"The most important part of.

　　在我看来，以内需拉动为导向的增长模式在我国存在现实的可能性。中国东部沿海五省和中部七省之间有一个巨大的贸易空间。同样，中部和沿海的十五个省市又与西部的十三个省区存在着巨大的贸易空间。所以，我国国内的贸易相当于三十几个国家之间的贸易，国内市场存在着巨大的需求量。

In my opinion,With domestic demand pull oriented growth pattern in our country exists the possibility of reality.China's eastern coastal five provinces and central provinces have seven between a huge trade space.The same,Central and coastal 15 provinces and cities and western 13 provinces is a big trade space.so,Domestic trade is equivalent to more than thirty countries trade between,There was a huge domestic market demand.

　　以内需为导向的经济增长对我国的整个工业经济转型有着非常重大的影响。如果内需拉动经济发展，首先，在以后的产品构成当中，适合于中国人吃穿用住产品的百分比会增加。制造业将会更加偏重轻灵精巧制造和智慧制造，会使人们的消费结构更加均衡。其次，内需经济的发展将带来近距离贸易，信息数据的处理速度提高，加快市场资源配置的重组。第三，制造业领域可能进行结构调整，甚至连人们的生活方式和思维方式都有可能随之调整。

Domestic demand as the guide to the economic growth of the whole industry of our country economic restructuring has a very significant influence.If domestic demand stimulate economic development,First of all,In the later of product composition,Suitable for Chinese food and clothing with live product percentage will increase.Manufacturing industry will be more emphasis on light exquisite manufacturing and wisdom manufacturing,Can make people's consumption structure more balanced.secondly,Domestic economic development will bring close trade,Information data processing speed increase,To speed up the restructuring of the market allocation of resources.The third,Manufacturing possible structure adjustment,Even people's way of life and the way of thinking may be changed accordingly.

　　随着人民币逐渐市场化，2013年人民币可能会继续升值。在我看来，均衡汇率应该在14到15.5之间，而现在是16.2，还有升值空间。虽然人民币在短期内会有波动，但是在长期趋势上还会有一个升值的过程。

As the market gradually,2013 RMB may continue to rise.In my opinion,Equilibrium exchange rate should be in between 14 to 15.5,And now is 16.2,And appreciation of the space.Although the yuan in the short term there will be a wave,But in the long term trend will also have an appreciation of the process.

　　所以，对于我国的出口企业来说，从短期来看这是一个不利因素，但是对主要依赖国外原材料和资源的企业来说影响不是太大，因为使用人民币购买国外的原材料和资源时，相比之前会更加便宜。人民币升值对中国外贸的发展趋势是有一定压力，但中国的出口企业应该可以承受，我本人很乐意看到人民币升值。

so,For our country's export for enterprise,In the short term this is a disadvantage factors,But for mainly depends on foreign raw materials and resources for enterprise influence is not too big,Because the use of the yuan to buy foreign raw materials and resources,Cheaper than before.The appreciation of the renminbi to the trend of the development of China's foreign trade is a certain pressure,But China's export enterprise should be able to bear,I am very glad to see the appreciation of the RMB.

　　对于大宗商品的价格，预计明年3月份以后还是会有所上升。因为当经济处在复苏阶段的时候，大宗商品一般进行远期交易，明年3月份的价格其实反映的是明年9月份或年底的需求，所以如原油等大宗商品价格会上升。

For the price of commodities,Next year is expected to 3 months later still will be increased.Because when the economy in the recovery stage,Commodities generally for forward transactions,March price actually reflects the next September or at the end of demand,So such as crude oil and commodity prices will rise.

　　在我看来，在2013年中国经济发展中，园区经济会成为一个非常大的亮点。过去做园区经济，做得最好的就是中关村和浦东新区，但是现在全国各地都在做产业园区，而且这些园区在土地资源、一二级土地市场升值、招商引资和综合性投资平台等的运作方面都非常成熟。2013年，国家应该继续支持产业园区发展。

In my opinion,In 2013 in China's economic development,The economy will be a very big window.In the past the economy,Do best is zhongguancun and pudong new area,But now all over the country are doing industrial park,And these park in land resources/12 appreciation of land market/Attract/bid for/invite investments and comprehensive investment platform and operation aspects are very mature.In 2013,,Countries should continue to support industrial park development.

　　随着产业园区的发展，2013年我国城镇化会出现前所未有的亮点。过去产业园区在城市中心发展，现在产业园区已向郊区转移。在工业化的进程中，过去大家说是城市吸纳农村，现在我认为则是城市借助农村实现城市化。我预计，十年以后，保护农村就会变得非常重要。

With the development of the industrial park,In 2013, the urbanization will appear unprecedented window.The past industrial park development in the city center,Now industrial park has to the suburbs transfer.In the process of industrialization,In the past we say absorbing rural city,Now I think it is the city with the realization of rural urbanization.I expect,Ten years later,Protect the rural will become very important.

　　除此之外，2013年，国家可能会出台一组改革开放政策，如果把这些政策放在资本市场，就会发生重要的变革。1997年的改革政策带来了巨大的收益，今天制度改革仅剩下很小的几个领域，如市场领域、金融领域、医疗和社会保障领域，而这些领域的改革将成为经济增长的亮点。

In addition,In 2013,,Countries may be followed by a group of reform and opening-up policy,If these policies in the capital market,Will be changed greatly.1997 years of reform policy had brought great benefits,This reform had only small areas,Such as marketing field/The financial sector/Medical and social security field,And these areas of reform will be the highlight of economic growth.

　　2012年，十八大报告提出建设生态文明， 这对中国工业转型来说既是机遇又是挑战。我认为，生态文明对工业的挑战其实是很大的。在工业转型的过程中，我们应该更加注重生态环境的建设，不以破坏生态环境为经济增长的代价。作为一个大一统的国家，我们在动员群体性资源方面，几乎是无所不能的。但是，在动员创新性资源方面，通过创新和提高技术，以此避免在工业生产过程中对环境造成损害，我们的创造性还不够。总体来说，2013年，我国工业转型的挑战主要在于智慧型的创造和研发，而通过注重生态文明，也会给企业带来一种财富。

In 2012,,The eighteenth big report construction of ecological civilization, The transformation of China's industrial both opportunities and challenges.I think,Ecological civilization to industrial challenge is actually a lot of.In the industrial transformation of the process,We should pay more attention to the construction of ecological environment,Not to damage the ecological environment as the cost of economic growth.As a united country,We mobilize resources in the group,Is almost omnipotent.but,In mobilization innovative resources,Through the innovation and improve the technology,To avoid in the industrial production process to the environment caused by damage,Our creative enough.In general,In 2013,,Our industrial transformation of the main challenge lies in the creation of an intelligent and r&d,And through the pay attention to ecological civilization,Also can give enterprise to bring a kind of wealth.

　　除了注重生态文明建设，产业均衡化发展也同样重要。在全球经济不景气的情况下，“再工业化”和“制造业回归”成为美国经济复苏的口号。在我看来，这是美国对过去它在产业空心化和国民经济结构布局不合理方面的一种矫正。随着美国工业化的推进，它在中国的一些制造业可能会回流到美国。所以对中国制造业而言，我们应该清楚地认识到，在经济的发展过程中，既不能够完全替换某一个产业群，也不能把整个国家的经济都变成实体经济。一个国家的实体经济和建立在实体经济之上的衍生经济应该有一个合理的构成比例，要更加注重均衡化发展。

In addition to pay attention to the construction of ecological civilization,Industry equalization development are also important.In the global economic recession,"To industrialization"and"Manufacturing regression"The slogan of the economic recovery in the United States.In my opinion,This is the United States in the past it KongXinHua industry and national economic structure is not reasonable layout of a correction.Along with the advancement of industrialization,It in some of China's manufacturing industry may return to the United States.So for China in manufacturing,We should realize clearly,In the economic development process,Neither can completely replace a industry group,Also can't take the whole country's economy into the real economy.A country's real economy and based on the real economy on derivative economy should have a reasonable composition proportion,To pay more attention to the development of equalization.