据了解，2012年以来，中国的铜一直在去库存。据估算，2012年中国铜半成品制造商去库存已达65万-70万吨，占中国年需求的10%。

It is understood,Since 2012,China's copper has been to inventory.It is estimated,In 2012 China's copper semi-finished products manufacturers to stock up to 650000-700000 tons,Accounted for 10% of China's annual demand.

　　整条铜产业价值链都在去库存。位于铜产业链上的空调厂商，2012年迄今销量下滑14%，减产24%，这意味着相应的去库存幅度为10%。位于空调厂商上游的房地产开发商，2012年同期住宅销量减少4%，但住宅新开工数量下降13%，即去库存幅度为10%。也就是说，在整条铜及铜制品产业链上，去库存幅度为29%。预计去库存结束将引发需求环比上升41%。

The whole article copper industry value chain are to inventory.Is located in the air-conditioning manufacturers of copper industry chain,Sales fell 14% in 2012 so far,Reduction of 24%,This means that the corresponding to inventory rate of 10%.Located in the upstream of the air conditioner manufacturers real estate developers,Housing sales decreased by 4% over the same period in 2012,But the new residential construction fell by 13%,Namely to inventory rate of 10%.That is to say,In the whole industry chain in copper and copper products,With 29% to inventory.Is expected to trigger a demand to inventory end of new homes rose 41%.

　　需求进一步提升的可能性。预计铜及铜制品产业链上各个环节的提升空间将有所区别。例如，占比较小的汽车行业几乎未有大幅去库存的迹象。眼下中国企业已经开始再投资，大宗商品需求的提升空间将远大于投资者目前的预期。有初步迹象显示，开发商愿意提高新开工数量，因此预计房地产将是需求提升的主要动力。由于开发商将受利润率(新购土地目前约为30%)吸引，购房者也将利用较宽松的贷款标准，预计2013年新开工数量将增加约10%。

Needs further the possibility of ascension.Copper and copper products industry chain each link is expected to the ascension of space will be different.Such as,Automobile industry of smaller almost no sharp to signs of inventory.Chinese enterprises have begun to reinvest at the moment,Commodity demand the ascension of space will far outweigh the investors are expected.A preliminary indications,Developers want to boost the number of new start,So the real estate is expected is the main driving force to promote the demand.Because the developers will be profit margins(New purchase land currently about 30%)attract,Buyers also will use the loose lending standards,New construction in 2013 is expected to increase about 10%.

　　我们为什么乐观。一些投资者强烈怀疑，QE3将引发资本流入新兴市场。支持这一判断的主要依据是，新兴市场特别是中国企业的回报水平和竞争力已下滑。过去十年中国企业的回报水平确实有所下滑，但预计资本流动的主要渠道将是贸易和大宗商品融资，二者与现金流的关系远大于与企业回报的关系。

Why do we optimistic.Some investors strongly suspect,QE3 will trigger a capital inflow of emerging markets.Support is the main basis of the judgment,Emerging markets especially China return level and competitiveness of the enterprise has set up a file.Return level of Chinese enterprises over the past decade has actually declined,But is expected to capital flow is the main channel will trade and commodity financing,Both the relationship between cash flow far outweigh the relationship with the enterprise in return.

　　中国即将补库。美联储购买抵押贷款支持证券时，美国的银行有三个选择：1)将资金留在联储，享受负实际利率(这将降低资本的价值);2)加大对国内企业和消费者的贷款，但必须放宽贷款标准以刺激需求;3)与中国出口商进行贸易融资。其中，第三个选择最受欢迎，因为息差最近有所上升。

China is about to fill.The federal reserve to buy mortgage-backed securities,The bank of the United States there are three options:1)Will remain in the fed funds,Enjoy the negative real interest rates(This will reduce the value of the capital);2)Increase in domestic enterprise and consumer loans,But must be relaxed lending standards to stimulate demand;3)With Chinese exporters for trade financing.Among them,A third choice is the most popular,Because spreads have risen recently.

　　当资本通过贸易融资重新流回中国，中国央行将印发人民币以买入流入的美元，从而提高流动性，推升国内银行存款，进而促使银行放宽贷款限制，推动企业运营时不再仅追逐现金，而先“仅买所需”，再补库存。预计一旦补库开始，中国政府出台的刺激措施将开始发挥作用，包括放宽首套和二套房贷标准及批准对公路、铁路和灌溉基建项目的直接投资。随着各级政府官员2013年1月完成换届并加快基建支出，政策也可能重新转向。

When the capital through the trade financing flow back to China again,China's central bank will be issued by the influx of the RMB to buy dollars,So as to improve the liquidity,Domestic bank deposit of push,And then to bank loan limit exemption,Promote enterprise operation when no longer chasing cash only,And the first"Only needed to buy",And inventory.Is scheduled to begin once for library,The Chinese government's stimulus will begin to play a role,Including easing the first set and two sets of mortgage standards and approved by the highway/Railway and irrigation infrastructure projects of direct investment.With the government officials at all levels in January 2013 complete shift and speed up the infrastructure spending,Policy may also turn again.

　　迹象显示资本流入。投资者可寻找迹象，看企业行为是否转变为补库。第一个迹象是中国的外汇头寸。第二个迹象是人民币自2012年9月以来已升值2%。企业行为变化的其它宏观信号，包括全球PMI新订单减库存数回升、中国出口好转及进口和信贷增长。

Signs of capital inflows.Investors can be looking for signs,Whether enterprise behavior into library.The first signs is the foreign currency positions in China.The second sign is the yuan has risen 2% since September 2012.Enterprise behavior change other macro signal,Including global PMI new orders to reduce inventory number/China's exports and imports and credit growth.

　　铜价将长期承压。中国为圣诞节出货而补库将带动需求，因此预计2012年平均铜价为3.61美元/磅(当前价格为3.46美元/磅)。但全球市场供应过剩将导致全球铜价从2013年开始承压。供应方面，估计主要产量增长将来自四大矿区：蒙古Oyu Tolgoi(增14万吨)、智利Caserones(增16万吨)、秘鲁Toromocho(增19万吨)和秘鲁Las Bambas(增25万吨)。另一方面，年需求增长将从2009-2011年的8%降至4%。中国目前的铜消费量占全球总量的40%，因此其经济增速放缓将成为未来铜需求下降的主要原因。

Price will be pressure for a long time.China for Christmas delivery and library will spur demand,So are expected to average price is $3.61 / lb in 2012(The current price is $3.46 / lb).But global market oversupply will lead to global copper confined since 2013.supply,Estimate the main production growth will come from four major mining area:Mongolia Oyu Tolgoi(140000 tons of)/Chile Caserones(160000 tons of)/Peru Toromocho(190000 tons of)And Peru Las Bambas(250000 tons of).On the other hand,In demand growth will drop to 4% from 8% in 2009-2011.China's current copper consumption accounted for 40% of the global total,So the economic slowdown in the main reason for decline in demand for copper will become the future.