2013年，美日欧经济都将有所好转。在此外部条件下，中国经济的进出口也不会比2012年差太多。

In 2013,,The European economy will be improved.In in addition of conditions,China's economy will not import and export more than 2012 too much difference.

　　在上一个季度本栏目的宏观经济评论中，我预言中国经济增长已经短期见底。主要理由是美联储在2012年9月13日启动了第三轮量化宽松的货币政策，导致美元流动性再度泛滥、美元汇率再度走软，带动人民币对其他货币的汇率走低，中国的货币政策被动走向积极。上季度的评论同时预言2012年中国经济四季度的对外贸易数据将有所改善，但是总量失衡和结构扭曲都将重演，因此增长不可持续。

In the last quarter of purpose this macro economic review,I predict that China's economic growth has short-term see bottom.The main reason is that the fed on September 13, 2012, launched the third round of quantitative easing monetary policy,To cause the dollar liquidity flooded again/The dollar weakened again,Drive the RMB exchange rate lower against other currencies,China's monetary policy passive to active.The last quarter's comments and predicted in 2012, the Chinese economy in the fourth quarter foreign trade data will be improved,But the total imbalances and structure distortion will repeat itself,So the unsustainable growth.

　　海关总署和统计局近日公布的数据都和上述评论中的预测相吻合。第一，四季度国内生产总值环比增长2．0％；同比增长7．9％，比三季度的同比增长率高出半个百分点，扭转了连续下跌的势头。第二，四季度的进出口总额为10249亿美元，比三季度高出242亿美元；同比增长6．3％，比三季度增长率高出3．3个百分点。第三，外部失衡再次加大。12月份的外贸顺差达到316．2亿美元，扩大91．8％。相比全年平均月度数据大幅增加（全年顺差2311亿美元，扩大48．1％）。

The general administration of customs and the bureau of statistics recently published data and the comments of the consistent prediction.The first,The fourth quarter GDP growth of 2.0% link;Year-on-year growth of 7.9%,The third quarter year-on-year growth rate than the more than half a point,Turn the continuous falling momentum.The second,The fourth quarter of the total import and export volume for 1.0249 trillion dollars,More than $24.2 billion in the third quarter;Year-on-year growth of 6.3%,The third quarter was 3.3% higher than the growth rate.The third,External imbalances increased again.The December issue of foreign trade surplus to $31.62 billion,Expanded by 91.8%.Compared with the average monthly data greatly increased(The surplus of $231.1 billion,Expanded by 48.1%).

　　2013年将是全球经济向好的一年。特别是美国经济将进一步复苏，就业情况将持续好转。从增长指标来看，美国经济早已走出金融危机的阴影。只是失业率仍然处于较高水平。我相信，美国的失业率指标在2013年将持续显著地改善。理由是美国经济在转向方面取得了进展，就业情况将跟随经济增长而改善。由于被雇佣者的转型比雇主的转型晚，所以失业率的改善相对于经济复苏有时滞。

2013 will be the global economy to a good year.Especially the American economy will be further recovery,The employment situation will continue to improve.From the growth indicators,The American economy already out of the shadow of the financial crisis.But the unemployment rate is still in a higher level.I believe that,America's unemployment rate index in 2013 will continue to significantly improve.Reason is that the U.S. economy has made progress in turn,The employment situation will follow the economic growth and improve.Due to the transformation of employers than the employer's transformation late,So the improvement of the unemployment rate relative to the economic recovery has delay.

　　得益于新任首相安倍晋三启动宽松的货币政策和积极的财政政策，日本经济在2013年也将有比较好的表现。由于日本的货币政策走向扩张，日元兑美元汇率已经从78左右贬值到90左右。这将在短期强化日本产品的国际竞争力。不过，日本经济何时能够获得长期的竞争力仍然取决于日本政治与经济体制转轨何时能够取得实质性进展。

Thanks to the new prime minister, shinzo Abe, start the loose monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy,Japan's economy in 2013 will also have better performance.Because of Japan's monetary policy to expansion,The yen against the dollar has from about 78 to about 90 devaluation.In the short term this will strengthen the international competitiveness of Japanese products.but,When the Japanese economy to obtain long-term competitiveness still depends on Japan's political and economic system transition will be substantial progress.

　　欧元区的经济表现在2013年也将有所改善。“欧猪国家”经济增长率提高的同时，德国的经济增长率有所下降，两类国家在增长方面的差距缩小，有利于维持欧元区的统一以及建立更加统一的财政机制。因此，尽管彻底解决欧元区的体制问题需要好几年时间，我仍然猜测欧元区在2013年可能会比较安定，金融市场不会有大的波动。

The euro area's economic performance in 2013 will also be improved."The pig countries"To improve economic growth at the same time,Germany's economic growth rate declined,Two kinds of countries in the growth gap,To maintain the unity of the euro area and the establishment of a more unified financial mechanism.so,Although completely solve the euro area's system need several years,I still guess the euro area in 2013 May be more stable,Financial markets will not have big fluctuation.

　　在美日欧经济都有所好转的外部条件下，中国经济的进出口不会比2012年差太多。商务部2012年外贸增长10％的目标过于乐观，但对2013年的外贸情况也不必过于悲观。

In the European economy better external conditions,China's economy will not import and export more than 2012 too much difference.In 2012 the ministry of commerce foreign trade growth target of 10% is too optimistic,But for 2013 years of foreign trade situation also need not too pessimistic.

　　如同我在较早的评论当中预测的一样，中国经济的这一轮改善仍然是在出口导向的道路上前进，仍然是不可持续的。但是，中国政府在2013年两会之后可能出台一系列政策，给市场留下了很大的想像空间。这些政策不仅有利于短期经济增长，而且有可能会为未来十年经济持续增长打下基础。

As I was on the early predictions of comments,China's economy is still in this round to improve export oriented road forward into,Still is unsustainable.but,The Chinese government in 2013 after two meetings may be issued a series of policies,To the market left a lot of imagination space.The policy is not only beneficial to short-term economic growth,And may be for the next ten years of sustained economic growth to lay the foundation.

　　最后值得一提的是通货膨胀。当前中国经济的增长模式回到了2010年之前的状况，与我在拙作《见证通胀》里面描述的模式一模一样，因此通货膨胀是注定要出现的。只是由于时滞的原因，即使新一届国务院班子不在体制上反通胀，2013年全年也不会见到很高的通胀。但是股票和房地产之类的资产价格是通货膨胀的先行指标，将在2013年经历一波上涨。

Finally be worth what carry is inflation.China's current economic growth mode back to 2010 years ago situation,And I in the books[Witness inflation]It describes the same pattern,Therefore inflation is destined to appear.Just because the cause of the delay,Even if the new group of the state council in the system against inflation,Year 2013, also won't see high inflation.But the stock and real estate and so on asset price inflation is the first index,In 2013 a wave of rising experience.