农机市场错综复杂的国际环境，将从不同角度对明年我国农机市场产生或轻或重的影响。

Agricultural machinery market complicated international environment,From different angles of agricultural machinery market for next year produces or light or heavy impact.

　　展望2013年的农机出口市场，我们依然面临着严峻复杂的出口环境，出口下行压力依然巨大。

In 2013 the export market for farm machinery,We are still facing severe complicated export environment,Export downward pressure is still great.

　　一是国际经济危机还将持续。国际经济仍将在低位徘徊至少2～3年。二是国际贸易投资和就业形势有所缓解，但仍不能乐观，国际贸易保护主义重新抬头，对世界经济的发展尤其对中国的经济的发展极为不利。三是新一轮全球性的通货膨胀难以避免。新兴国家的通货膨胀已经到来，发达国家的也即将到来，欧盟已达到了3%，美国也超过了2%，未来将进一步演化。四是世界主要经济体的财政赤字和债务负担将困扰世界经济。五是我国农机出口秩序紊乱，出口门槛低，无规范，恶性竞争成为制约我国农机出口的关键因素。

One is the international economic crisis will continue.The international economy will be in the low end at least 2 ~ 3 years.The second is the international trade and investment and employment situation to ease,But it is still not optimistic,International trade protectionism looked up again,To the world economic development especially for China's economic development is very adverse.The third is a new round of global inflation is difficult to avoid.Emerging countries inflation has come,The developed countries are coming,The European Union has reached 3%,The United States also more than 2%,The future will be further evolution.The fourth is the world's major economies fiscal deficit and debt burden will trouble the world economy.Five is our country agricultural machinery export order disorder,Export threshold low,No standard,Malignant competition become restrict our country agricultural machinery exports of key factors.

　　以上五大因素构成了我国农机市场错综复杂的国际环境，将从不同角度对明年我国农机市场产生或轻或重的影响。尤其对我国农机出口市场，将形成严峻挑战。对此，我们必须有清醒的认识，制定科学的应对措施。

The above five factors of agricultural machinery market complicated international environment,From different angles of agricultural machinery market for next year produces or light or heavy impact.Especially for our country agricultural machinery export market,Will form severe challenges.this,We must have a clear understanding,To make a scientific and measures.

　　2013年我国农机出口也面临着诸多利好因素。首先国际产业转移和重组给我们带来了新机遇。国内企业面临承接服务业和高新技术产业革命转移的新机遇，而且国际产业在这次金融危机的影响下正在进行重组，现在我们可以借机进入国外的一些高端技术产业企业重组兼并，实现自身技术实力的跨越式发展。其次，新一轮全球性的技术革命正在取得突破也给我们带来了新机遇。每一次经济危机都会引起一轮新的技术革命，新能源、环保、信息技术等正在酝酿一场新的变革，我们可以借机实现后发赶超。再次，消费结构升级给我们带来新的机遇。大型高端农机机械需求趋旺，意味着我们的产业发展正面临着新的市场机遇。第四，随着我国农机出口产品技术的日臻成熟，出口结构的不断调整和出口区域的不断拓展，将为今年的农机出口带来更大的发展空间。第五，区域经济一体化给我们带来新的机遇。

In 2013, farm machinery exports also faces many positive factors.The first international industrial transfer and recombination bring us new opportunities.Domestic enterprises face to undertake the services and high-tech industrial revolution transfer of new opportunities,And international industry in this financial crisis is under the influence of restructuring,Now we can borrow into foreign some high-end technology industry merger and reorganization of enterprises,To realize their own technical strength of the great-leap-forward development.secondly,A new round of global technology revolution is a breakthrough also bring us new opportunities.Each time the economic crisis will cause a new round of technological revolution,New energy/Environmental protection/Information technology are considering a new change,We can realize the opportunity to catch up with the.again,Consumption structure upgrade bring us new opportunities.Large high-end farm machinery to the rising demand,Means that our industry development is facing new market opportunities.The fourth,Along with our country agricultural machinery exports technology more and more mature gradually,The export structure constantly adjust and export area continue to expand,For this year's agricultural machinery exports bring larger development space.The fifth,The integration of regional economy bring us new opportunities.

　　基于以上分析，预计2013年我国农机进出口或将呈现以下特点：一是利好因素将进一步推动我国农机出口贸易持续增长，特别是出口交货值将持续保持高速增长。二是农机品类、出口数量和出口金额将出现热点轮动的局面，并且保持高位，一些热点产品诸如拖拉机出口或将出现反弹，但增幅不会有太大起色。三是进出口结构会进一步优化，进出口机型大型化会更加突出。四是农机进口增幅或将提高，贸易顺差压力进一步加大，农机进口结构将进一步向大型高技术含量方向发展。

Based on the above analysis,It is estimated that our agricultural machinery import and export or will present the following features:One is bullish factors will further promote our country agricultural machinery export trade growth,Especially in china.according will continue to maintain high growth.The second is farm machinery category/Export quantity and export value will appear hot wheel dynamic situation,And keep high,Some hot products such as tractor export or will appear rebound,But growth won't have too big improvement.The third is import and export structure will be further optimized,Import and export model large-scale will become more prominent.The fourth is agricultural machinery import growth or will improve,The trade surplus further intensify the pressure,Agricultural machinery import structure will further to the large-scale development high technology content.