中国贸易总额2012年有可能超过美国，成为世界第一大贸易国。

China's total trade in 2012 May have more than the United States,Become the world's first big trading nation.

　　2月13日，商务部对外贸易司负责人澄清，由于中美两国货物贸易统计口径不同，有可能造成中国货物贸易量被高估。美国商务部的统计口径，出口以与离岸价接近的船边交货价、进口以到岸价统计。根据这一口径，2012年美国货物贸易数据为38824亿美元。而据中国海关统计，2012年中国货物贸易额为38667.6亿美元，统计口径是出口以离岸价、进口以到岸价计算，与世贸组织采用的统计口径一致。若按照世贸组织的统计口径，我国2012年货物贸易额应比美国少156.4亿美元。

On February 13,,The ministry of commerce official of the department of foreign trade and clarification,Because the two countries different goods trade statistics caliber,Has the potential to cause Chinese goods trade overvalued.The us department of commerce statistical caliber,Exports to fob and close fas/The import of cif statistics.According to the diameter,In 2012 the United States trade in goods data for 3.8824 trillion dollars.And according to China's customs statistics,In 2012, the Chinese goods trade for 3.86676 trillion dollars,Statistical caliber is exports to fob/The import of cif calculation,The world trade organization (wto) and the statistical caliber consistent.If the wto statistics caliber,Our country in 2012 the goods trade than GuoShao should be $15.64 billion.

　　即使中国2012年没有超过美国，也很接近了。这是中国出口数额的最后光芒，我们不可能指望未来中国出口数额依然维持上世纪80年代以来的高增长，中国出口需要转型。

Even if China 2012 years there was no more than the United States,Is very close to the.This is China's export amount of the last light,We can't expect the future China's export amount still maintain growth since the 1980 s,China's export need transformation.

　　相对于中国货物贸易量，值得关注的是另外两个数据的变化。

Relative in goods trade,There is concern that the other two data changes.

　　第一，净出口下降。净出口是出口额与进口额的差额，净出口对GDP增长的贡献率=净出口增量/GDP增量×100%。据国家统计局发布的数据，2009年、2011年和2012年，我国净出口对GDP的贡献率分别为-44.8%、-5.8%和-2.2%。 这说明，出口对于中国对经济的贡献逐级下降，拖了GDP增长的后腿。但这并不意味着，中国出现贸易逆差，事实上，中国依然是顺差国。

The first,Net decline in exports.Net export is the difference between the amount of imports and exports,Net exports to GDP growth contribution rate = net export increment/GDP increment x 100%.According to the national bureau of statistics data released by the,In 2009,/In 2011 and 2012,Our country the contribution of net exports to GDP - 44.8% respectively/- 5.8% and 2.2%. This shows that,Export to China's economic contribution down step by step,Drag the hind legs of GDP growth.But this does not mean that,China emerged the trade deficit,In fact,China is still ShunChaGuo.

　　净出口下降不是坏事，可能是因为国际经济疲乏，出口速度不得不放慢，可能是为了平衡收支与贸易增加进口的结果。前两年中国净出口下降，两个原因兼而有之。以欧盟为首的经济体经济疲软，阻碍了中国向这些国家的出口；同时，为了平衡收支，中国增加了大宗商品、粮食等领域的进口。

Net decline in exports is not bad,May be because of the international economic and fatigue,Outlet velocity had to slow down,May be in order to balance of payments and trade imports results.Before two years China's net exports decline,Two reasons both.In the European Union economies led economic weakness,Prevents China exports to these countries;At the same time,In order to balance of payments,China increased the commodity/The import of food, etc.

　　净出口下降意味着贸易转型时代的到来。随着中国国内原材料、人力成本上升、更加重视环境，中国出口的廉价商品已无绝对优势，遭遇来自东南亚、拉美等国的竞争。在美国沃尔玛等超市中，来自墨西哥、危地马拉、越南等国的低价产品越来越多，精密性较高、运输成本高的制造业，美国政府通过税收激励方法转移回美国，苹果、福特、卡特彼勒等公司已经开始逐步回流。中国出口腹背受敌，必须谋求转型之道。

Net decline in exports trade means that the arrival of the era of transformation.With China's domestic raw materials/Labor costs rise/Pay more attention to the environment,China's export cheap goods is not absolute advantage,Encounter from southeast Asia/Latin America and other countries of the competition.In the United States, such as wal-mart supermarket,From Mexico/Guatemala/Vietnam and other countries of the low price products more and more,Precision of higher/High transportation cost of manufacturing,The United States government through the tax incentive method transfer back to the United States,apple/ford/Companies such as caterpillar has begun to gradually return.China's export between Scylla and Charybdis,Must seek the way of transformation.

　　第二，按照附加值贸易统计法，中国进出口数量虽多，却是技术、品牌弱国。

The second,According to the added value trade statistics,China import and export quantity is much,Is technology/Weak brand.

　　一种新的统计模式让出口国的真实利益脱颖而出。1月16日，世界贸易组织和经济合作与发展组织在巴黎联合发布了经过多年合作研究出的“全球贸易测算新方法——附加值贸易测算法”。按照这一方法，中国的出口瞬间下降，经合组织秘书长古里亚说，按照附加值测算，2009年中国对美贸易顺差大约应该减少25%，日本最大出口国是美国，而非中国。美国所占比重达19%，中国则为15%，日本对华顺差基本消除，对美顺差则达360亿美元，增加约6成。

A new statistical model for exporter real interests stand out.On January 16,,The world trade organization and the organization for economic cooperation and development in Paris have jointly issued after many years of cooperation study out"Global trade measure method, the added value of the new trade measure method".According to this method,China's export moment down,The oecd secretary-general kori and said,According to the added value calculation,In 2009, China's trade surplus with the us about should be reduced by 25%,Japan is the largest exporter,Rather than China.The United States accounts for 19%,China is 15%,Japan China surplus basically eliminated,To the surplus is $36 billion,Increase about.

　　美国彼得森国际经济研究所中国经济问题专家尼古拉斯·拉迪指出，中国的出口总体上来说带有出口来料加工的性质。以占中国出口产品20％的纺织品为例，面料的进口占了出口总值的三分之一，如果再加上进口设备和支付合资出口企业的其他外汇支出，中国纺织品出口的附加值只有三分之一左右。高端服装的面料、服装设计、品牌等方面，中国均不具备优势，目前的竞争陷入压低要素价格进行低价竞争的泥潭，与越南、斯里兰卡等国家处于同一水平线上，这样的出口结构难以持久。

The peterson institute for international economics of the Chinese economy experts nicolas radi pointed out,China's export overall with the nature of the export processing.To account for 20% of China's exports textiles as an example,Fabrics imported accounted for one third of the total value of exports,If combined with imported equipment and payment of foreign joint venture export enterprise other spending,China textile export value only about a third.High-end clothing fabrics/Costume design/Brand, etc,China are do not have the advantage,The competition in low price elements in the mire of the low price competition,And Vietnam/Sri Lanka and other countries on the same level,Such export structure to last.

　　当年日本在低价品出口的瓶颈阶段，主要依靠技术优势与品牌渡过难关。中国短期内不可能成为一流的工业技术强国，但建立标准化的、持久的产品质量体系，培育出足以支撑这一体系的企业家、劳工，力所能及，也是中国提升产品附加值的当务之急。起码，可以获得产品标准与信用溢价，这是标准化工业的第一步。

The Japanese in the low price product export bottleneck stage,Mainly rely on technical advantage and brand tide over the difficulties.China in the short term can not become the first-class industrial technology power,But to establish standardized/Lasting product quality system,Produced enough to support the system entrepreneurs/labor,can,Is China the promotion product value-added preoccupation.At least,Can get the product standard and credit premium,This is the first step in the industrial standardization.

　　美国《连线》杂志主编克里斯·安德森在其新著《创客：新工业革命》一书中，指出硅谷的创客们在车库中鼓捣独一无二的开放性产品时，通过电子商务网站向全球各地下订单，为了得到快速的服务，安德森还曾飞赴中国的东莞，敲定一笔小订单，他对东莞厂商反应的迅捷印象深刻。现在，这些厂商需要得到统一而公平的公共服务，需要稳定的有技术能力的工人，借助中国日益强大的基础设施，以保持他们的优势。

The United States[attachment]Magazine editor Chris Anderson in the new[And the guest:The new industrial revolution]book,Pointed out that silicon valley and the guest in the garage of knock unique open products,Through the e-commerce sites to the world order,In order to get the fast service,Anderson also once flew to China's the dongguan,Set a small order,He to the dongguan manufacturers reaction of swift impressive.now,These companies need to be unified and fair public service,Need stable have technical ability of the workers,With the aid of China increasingly powerful infrastructure,To maintain their advantage.

　　我们很忙，我们不怎么赚钱，我们还为出口支付了环境、人力等成本。这是中国出口一直面临的指责，这样的指责忽略了中国庞大的就业人口，忽略了中国经济发展必须经历的阶段，忽略了经济发展雁行模式中国从雁群阵中到阵前的地位。

We are very busy,We don't how to make money,We also pay for export the environment/Manpower and cost.This is China's export has been facing the blame,Such accused ignored China's huge population employment,Ignore the economic development of China must go through stage,Ignore the economic development echelon pattern China from wild goose in the array to the position of captain.

　　考虑到就业，考虑到基础设施配套，考虑到产品布局，中国未来仍然将大力发展出口，只不过，出口结构将有所不同。出口行业的转型痛苦将是长期的。

Considering the employment,Considering the basic facilities,Considering the product layout,China's future still will vigorously develop export,just,The export structure will be different.Export industry transformation pain will be for the long term.